NHL Stat Pack: The Conference Finals By The Numbers

The final four are set. After the Dallas Stars took out the Seattle Kraken with a Game 7 win on Monday night, we'll see the Carolina Hurricanes take on the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference final starting Thursday. The Stars will try their luck out west against the Golden Knights in Vegas, starting Friday.

Let's slice and dice some numbers to see how these teams made it this far and what the future may hold.

Rest vs. Rust

The Hurricanes will be the most rested team heading into Round 3. They'll have enjoyed a full week off before the puck drops for Game 1 in Raleigh — and that extra time looks like it'll be enough to get Teuvo Teravainen back into the lineup after he suffered that broken hand just under a month earlier. 

In terms of workload, there's no major variance. Carolina and Vegas have played 11 games so far in these playoffs, Florida has played 12 and Dallas is at 13. 

There were just four overtime games in Round 2. Florida played two against Toronto, winning both by 3-2 scores, and Carolina eliminated New Jersey with Jesper Fast's sudden-death series winner.

Dallas has lost twice in overtime so far in these playoffs, in Game 1 of each series. Minnesota's Ryan Hartman was the double-OT hero in the longest game of the playoffs to date, kicking off Round 1, and Yanni Gourde gave Seattle a 1-0 series lead on the road in the second round.

Vegas has played just one overtime game so far — a 5-4 win in double OT off the stick of Michael Amadio which gave them a 2-1 series lead over the Winnipeg Jets in Round 1.

Stanley Cup Connections

Each final will feature a team that has won one Stanley Cup going up against a side that has never won.

The Hurricanes, of course, got the job done in 2006 — with current coach Rod Brind'Amour as their captain. Dallas won its lone championship in 1999, six years after relocating from Minnesota.

As for the Panthers, they've only reached the Conference final once before — when they went to the Stanley Cup final in 1996, then lost to the newly relocated Colorado Avalanche. It is interesting to note that Florida beat Boston in the first round that year, too.

And while much has been made about the Panthers' underdog run as an eight seed that barely snuck into a playoff berth in the last week of the season, they have shown some consistent improvement. This year marks the first time in franchise history that the Panthers have made the playoffs in four consecutive years — or even three if you don't want to count the qualifying-round loss from the 2020 bubble.

In 2021, they had a hard-fought six-game first-round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning, the eventual champions. In 2022, they won a round for the first time since '96 before falling to the Lightning again. Now they've got two rounds under their belt. Anything more is pure gravy.

Vegas, of course, also doesn't have a Cup — yet. But the Golden Knights are about to make their fourth appearance in the final four in just their sixth year of existence. Other than missing the post-season last year under the heavy weight of injuries and their stunning first-round loss in 2019, when the San Jose Sharks turned the series around during a five-minute third-period power play in Game 7, this is what Vegas does.

Joe Pavelski, of course, was the injured Shark who drew that fateful cross-checking major four years ago. He'll be the Golden Knights' foe again this year with the Stars — a rematch of the Western Conference final from the Edmonton bubble in 2020. Dallas won that series 4-1, earning the right to face the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Stanley Cup final.

Brind'Amour is the only one of the four coaches with a Stanley Cup ring, although his came as a player in 2006. 

Peter DeBoer has been to the final twice before, with the Sharks in 2016 and the Devils in 2012. He'll be coaching against Vegas, the team that fired him at the end of last season.

The Golden Knights' coach, Bruce Cassidy, reached the final with the Bruins in 2019.

Florida's coach, Paul Maurice, has coached in the final once before — when he was behind the bench of the Carolina Hurricanes against the Detroit Red Wings in 2002. Sure enough, he coached Brind'Amour at the time, and he will now be coaching against a former team for the second straight series. He also spent two years behind the bench in Toronto from 2006 to 2008. 

Does Defense Win Championships?

This is not something we would have seen even five years ago: the Hurricanes are the only one of the teams left standing that is giving up fewer than three goals a game, at 2.55.

The other three teams are bunched quite close together. Vegas is at exactly 3.00, while Dallas and Florida are at 3.08 each.

By comparison, the Washington Capitals won the Stanley Cup in 2018 with 2.54 goals allowed per game. Their foe in the finals, Vegas, gave up 2.35. And the other two conference finalists, Winnipeg and Tampa Bay, were at 2.47 and 2.82, respectively.

The Hurricanes also boast — by far — the best penalty kill, at 90 percent. Dallas is a solid 83.3 percent, but Florida is at 65.8 percent and Vegas is at just 60.

That ought to be a recipe for playoff disaster. But Vegas has a respectable expected goals share of 50.64 percent at 5-on-5 in the post-season, per naturalstattrick.com, and was facing a juggernaut in Edmonton's otherworldly power play. 

Dallas has the best expected goals of the remaining teams, at 55.50 percent, and Carolina isn't far behind at 52.32 percent. Florida is also respectable, at 48.45 percent.

Taking a look at PDO, a sum of shooting percentage and save percentage that serves as a proxy for luck, the Canes, Stars and Panthers are all very close to average, right around 1.00. Vegas is the outlier, with the highest PDO in the playoffs of 1.059. That'll be something to watch — a little regression might be on the horizon.

Offensive Power

In a post-season that has featured plenty of goals, all four remaining teams have easily cleared the three-goals-a-game bar. Vegas is at a whopping 3.73, Carolina is nearby at 3.64, Dallas is at 3.62, and Florida brings up the rear at a solid 3.33.

But two of these teams are impactful with the man advantage. Dallas has the best remaining power play, at 31.7 percent, and Florida sits at 27.6 percent. 

Carolina and Vegas are both under 20 — even though they're also the two highest-scoring teams overall in goals per game.

We've seen a trend of fewer power-play chances in the second round than the first. History suggests that the man-advantage opportunities will become even more scarce in Round 3.

Dallas has scored 13 of its 47 goals with the man advantage so far in the playoffs — and has also scored the most total goals. The other three teams are pretty close, no matter what the strength: eight on the power play for Florida and seven each for Vegas and Carolina, and a total of 41 for Vegas compared to 40 each for Carolina and Florida.

Individually, with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl now on summer vacation, the playoff goal-scoring title is up for grabs. Roope Hintz of Dallas (19 points) and Matthew Tkachuk of Florida (16 points) currently have the inside track.

But it's fascinating to see that all four surviving teams feature at least one player who has scored multiple game-winning goals.

Florida's Carter Verhaeghe and Dallas' Joe Pavelski lead the way with three each, and eight players have two. That list includes the Stars' Wyatt Johnston and Tyler Seguin, Chandler Stephenson and Jonathan Marchessault of Vegas, and Jesper Fast of Carolina.