NHL Tale of the Tape: Quinn Hughes vs. Cale Makar

Colorado Avalanche Cale Makar seemed to wrap up the debate between him and Vancouver Canucks D-man Quinn Hughes before this year. But after the latter's tear to start the season, Tony Ferrari digs deep to compare two of the NHL's best blueliners.

This season, the “Quinn Hughes vs. Cale Makar” debate has once again flared up.

Hughes has been dominant to start the season, and he’s not only garnered early-season Norris Trophy love, but the Vancouver Canucks defender has planted himself in the MVP discussion. 

Recently, though, Makar has started to heat up, and the debate between the two young cornerstones on the blueline has revived after a couple of years of quieting down.

As December begins and the NHL season officially passes the quarter-mark, it’s the perfect time to run down the tale of the tape of the two high-impact defenders. Let’s take a look at how we got here, where we’re at, and where this might end up at the end of the season.

The great debate of “Cale vs. Quinn” has raged on since 2018-19, when they both joined their respective NHL clubs after successful NCAA seasons. 

Hughes joined the Vancouver Canucks at the tail end of the regular season and had three assists in five games but didn’t get a chance to play in the playoffs. Makar took his NHL leap a little later, joining the Colorado Avalanche in the midst of the playoff run that year, recording six points in 10 games.

Both high-octane offensive blueliners looked fantastic in their short previews, but the following season would be when the debate hit full steam as the duo battled it out for the Calder Trophy as the league's top rookie. COVID-19 ended the season early, but Makar came out on top in the Calder race with more points per game, although Hughes had the higher point total.

When the playoffs rolled around that year after a lengthy COVID delay, both blueliners led their teams to the conference semifinals before losing in Game 7. Makar finished with 15 points in 15 games. Hughes notched 16 points in 17 games. Hughes had more points, but Makar produced at a slightly better rate, once again.

At that point, the debate between the two was as hot as ever – but only for so long. Makar began his run as one of the best defensemen in hockey the next season. Makar had 44 points in 44 games, but he also took a step defensively, which earned him his first Norris Trophy nomination. Hughes still had an excellent season, but his 41 points in 56 games just weren’t on the same level.

The following year, in 2021-22, Hughes took yet another step forward, reaching the 60-assist plateau en route to a 68-point year to set a new career high. Unfortunately, the debate was quieting down because although Makar finished two assists short of 60, his 28 goals and 86 points were good enough to earn him his first Norris Trophy win as the league's best defender. Makar helped the Avs to a Stanley Cup victory that year, earning the Conn Smythe as playoff MVP on the way while Hughes and the Canucks watched the playoffs from at home.

Heading into this season, the debate seemed to die down. Makar was a three-time Norris finalist with a Norris win already, as well as a Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe winner. Hughes finished inside the top 10 just once in Norris voting and had no playoff success outside of the COVID bubble season. Makar asserted himself as arguably the NHL’s best defenseman. Hughes was regarded as a great offensive blueliner.

The Canucks named Quinn Hughes captain as this season began, and 'Captain Quinn' has been a different animal. Hughes led his team to a blazing-hot start, putting them in an excellent position to end their playoff drought, and they’ve done so as one of the more dominant teams in the NHL’s Western Conference to this point.

Hughes has been among the gaggle of Canucks at or near the top of the NHL scoring race at various points this season. Hughes has been a leader on and off of the ice for the Canucks squad, and his dynamism and skill have set the tone for the Cancuks. They’ve been challenging the defending Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights atop the Pacific Division, sitting just four points back.

Hughes led the NHL in scoring through 20 games with 31 points. His willingness to get involved as a goal-scorer this season has made him more dangerous in all facets of the game. His commitment to playing sound defensive hockey has been noticeable as well throughout the season.

At the 25-game mark, Hughes is tied for fifth in league scoring with 34 points, good for a tie among all defensemen in the league. Unfortunately for Hughes, the defenseman he sits tied with is none other than Cale Makar.

The two blueliners are putting together game-breaking seasons. It would be unheard of since the 2005 lockout for a defenseman to put up these kinds of numbers, and we have two doing it in the same season. That statement is almost insane to think about, considering just last year, we had Erik Karlsson eclipse the 100-point mark.

Starting with the base stats seems like a reasonable place to begin our tale of the tape. The two defenders are virtually even. Hughes has an edge in goals, but Makar missed a couple of games because of an undisclosed injury, so his scoring rate is slightly higher.

Hughes has already set a career high in goals. He’s sure to eclipse double digits for the first time in his career and is on pace to challenge the 30-goal mark.

Goal scoring has largely been the difference between Hughes and Makar to this point. Hughes has racked up more assists in each season since they arrived in the NHL, even if the assists per game favored Makar in 2019-20 and 2020-21.

Makar uses his mobility to attack downhill and get into high-danger scoring areas. Hughes has always used his mobility well, and he has the ability and willingness to attack down the wall, but he’s always looked to make the pass or find a teammate who can advance the play. This season, Hughes asserted himself and used his shot more effectively. As his shot became more of a threat, it opened up passing lanes, and goalies had to stay honest when Hughes attacked.

Makar has always had that edge prior to this season. His shot has always been a weapon, and he’s always looked to be generating offense from high-danger areas. Now that Hughes has done the same, the gap between the two offensively has closed significantly. It’s why the two are nine points ahead of any of the other defenders on the scoring leaderboard.

With the ‘hockey card stats’ all coming out just about even between the two, we have to dig deeper. We can also examine each of their defensive metrics and how each looks in their own end while being all-world offensive producers.

This is where we see some differences between the two blueliners. 

Their Corsi-for percentage is virtually the same at just above 55 percent, a very good statistic, but there are some interesting numbers when it comes to how the two defenders have found their elite-level results.

Let’s start with the high-danger chance creation. When Hughes is on the ice, the high-danger Corsi-for is clicking at just over 50 percent, an elite rate. Makar’s rate is almost five points higher. Although Hughes has made a massive improvement and is finding ways to attack high danger more consistently, he is still doing so at a slightly lower rate than Makar.

Most elite players can outdo their expected goal or underlying numbers of any kind because they have the skill and talent to do so. Both Hughes and Makar are blowing their expected goals-for numbers out of the water. Hughes’ actual goals-for percentage is higher than Makar’s, but his expected number is far lower. The gap between Hughes’ actual and expected goals-for is over 18 percentage points, whereas Makar’s gap is just over seven.

Defensively, both have done a good job at 5-on-5 this year. Each has been on the ice for 13 goals against. For the minutes each of them plays, they’ve both done a good job of limiting the goals against. The concerning thing is that while Makar has been on the ice for virtually the exact amount of goals against he’s been expected to be on for, Hughes is once again wildly outperforming the underlying numbers.

Hughes' improvement in assertiveness and shooting the puck has altered the way teams are forced to defend him. He’s essentially taken a page out of Makar’s book. Makar has a longer history of being an elite goal-scorer from the back end, which could easily make up for the small gap between them right now.

As skaters, Makar is the powerful, galloping horse who looks like an NFL running back coming down the ice and attacking. He skates with purpose and blends deception and power with hip rotation and elite acceleration. Hughes, on the other hand, has a bit more of an agile and quick style of skating. His hands and feet move in a synchronized manner that looks almost as if he is a figure skater with a choreographed plan of attack. Both Makar and Hughes have elite-level mobility, but they have different means to accomplish their goals.

Hughes has historically been more dangerous as a playmaker in a traditional sense, facilitating play and funneling pucks to teammates from above the faceoff dots while showcasing the ability to take space when it’s given to him, but he would remain a passer first. With the aforementioned goal-scoring improvement, his passing reached another level as well. As goalies hesitate to cheat toward their teammates, Hughes exploits that extra half-second of time.

Makar has always had that advantage as the more dangerous shooting threat throughout their NHL time, which allows him to develop a true dual-threat offensive mindset. He has the passing and playmaking ability from the blueline, but he constantly creates new passing lanes with his willingness to patrol and circle around the offensive zone.

Defensively, neither Hughes nor Makar are stalwarts. In previous years, Hughes was knocked more for his defensive play as he got pushed around in the defensive zone, struggled to clear the net front and hadn’t quite figured out how to leverage his skating in his own end. This year, Hughes is doing a much better job of killing play before it becomes dangerous, using his skating to cut plays and finding ways to disrupt play with his stick.

Makar has used his skating in that regard for a couple of years now, which is why he sees better defensive results in general. Over the last year or so, he's also incorporated a bit more physicality into his game. He is still not the kind of player to throw a booming hit, but he leverages his skating to win body position and establish himself in an excellent position on the boards. Makar is by no means an amazing defensive player, but he has found ways to be a more effective defensive player to this point.

The offensive production for Hughes and Makar both seem legitimate. There could be some regression for both of them, especially Hughes, but both should continue to produce at an elite rate. It may not keep them in the company of Bobby Orr when you adjust for the era as Paul Pidutti’s work has shown, but seeing both players eclipse 80 points seems like a safe bet, barring any unforeseen circumstances.

As both players regress to what will likely be a fairly similar level of offensive production, we may see defensive regression as well. The Canucks have played a bit above their head with an elevated PDO that takes into account on-ice save percentage and shooting percentage. We’ve seen in recent weeks that Hughes has come down to earth a bit already; if that trend continues, it may be harder for him to maintain his standings as a Hart Trophy candidate and Norris Trophy shoe-in.

Over the last 10 games, Makar was on a tear with 18 points. Hughes still is very good, but his 11 points over the same span are a bit of a step back from his ridiculous pace to start the season. With Makar tying his scoring total in recent days, the cushion he built is no longer there. 

Makar is very unlikely to keep this pace, but if he regresses to where Hughes is at and both defenders continue to score the lights out as they have been, Norris voters will have to look elsewhere to determine which defender has been better.

Ultimately, there are still more than 50 games to play for the two elite blueliners who have taken their game to a potentially historic level. A lot can happen in 50 games.

The debate of Makar versus Hughes has turned into this year’s Norris conversation. While Hughes certainly had the early lead, Makar closed the gap and arguably took the lead by a slim margin. It’s almost certain that, at this point, it will be a two-horse race, and Hughes will be a Norris finalist for the first time in his career.

We will have to see just how much Hughes comes back down to earth and whether Makar can keep up with Hughes’ scoring if he doesn’t come down as much as some expect. The defensive results will almost certainly play a factor in a tight race. It’s safe to say this will be one of the hottest debates of the year, and it has re-ignited the discussion, debate, and online arguments of the two fan bases.

Who knows, maybe Hughes and Makar will be sitting atop the Hart Trophy race as well.