How the Tampa Bay Lightning will do without Steven Stamkos and with Jake Guentzel is one key topic for them, as well as the aftermath of the Mikhail Sergachev trade.

Welcome back to the latest file in THN.com’s ongoing series looking at important issues facing every NHL franchise. In this file, we’re breaking down three issues facing the Tampa Bay Lightning.

1. How will the Lightning do without longtime captain Steven Stamkos? Will newcomer Jake Guentzel prove to be a worthwhile replacement?

There’s a significant hole in the Lightning – in terms of the roster and the emotional connection involved – now that former captain Steven Stamkos has departed Tampa Bay in favor of the Nashville Predators. 

Stamkos was a crucial component in all of the Lightning’s success. While new Bolts left winger Guentzel should replace much of the offense Stamkos provided, the spiritual bond between him and Tampa Bay will be extremely difficult to replicate with anyone new.

Guentzel should thrive on the Lightning’s top line, likely with center Brayden Point and right winger Nikita Kucherov, but he’ll need to be at his best to provide enough offense to match the 40 goals and 81 points Stamkos generated this past season. 

Guentzel amassed 30 goals and 77 points while splitting time with the Pittsburgh Penguins and Carolina Hurricanes last year. But he’s five years younger than Stamkos, and that undoubtedly played into Tampa Bay GM Julien BriseBois’ decision to move on from the captain.

The 29-year-old Guentzel will carry a $9-million cap hit in each of the next seven seasons, so expectations will be high. But as one of the primary go-to competitors for the Lightning, he’ll have every opportunity to establish himself as a key element in Tampa. 

Given that he has two 40-goal seasons under his belt, Guentzel should be able to provide just as much offense as Stamkos did last year.

2. Can star winger Nikita Kucherov challenge for the Hart Trophy again?

The 31-year-old Kucherov was a star player before last season, but he elevated his game to a new level, setting new personal benchmarks in goals (44), assists (100) and points (144) to win his second Art Ross Trophy as the NHL’s top point-producer. 

Kucherov also was a finalist for the Hart Trophy as the game’s most valuable player, and there’s no reason he can’t do that again in 2024-25.

Kucherov led all Lightning forwards in time on ice last year, averaging 21:40 per game. With a whopping 53 power-play points in 2023-24, the Russian sniper will almost assuredly once again demonstrate his value to the Bolts by being their best supplier of offense. 

He won’t have the chance to represent his homeland at the 4 Nations Face-Off in February, as Russia doesn’t have a team in that tournament. But rest assured, Kucherov will continue being a top-10 player in the NHL, and his value to the Lightning has never been higher.

No one would be surprised to see Kucherov nominated again for the Hart. Depending on the rest of the field, Kucherov could take home his first Hart Trophy. If Tampa Bay is going to make the playoffs in the difficult Atlantic Division, Kucherov will have to lead the way. But we’re confident he can do that.

3. Will trading defenseman Mikhail Sergachev pay off in the long term?

BriseBois surprised the NHL when he traded Mikhail Sergachev – the Bolts’ second-most-used player at 22:33 of ice time per game – to Utah for a package that included blueliner J.J. Moser, young forward Conor Geekie and two draft picks. 

Tampa Bay was at a crossroads regarding its salary commitments this summer, and trading Sergachev opened up $8.5 million in cap space that allowed the Lightning to address different areas of their roster.

Will it be worth it? Well, if the 24-year-old Moser grows his game, it will take some of the sting out of losing Sergachev. But this is a franchise that’s built to win now. If the Lightning can build a deeper, more balanced group that gives them a leg up in the short term, trading 26-year-old Sergachev will be easier to justify. 

From our perspective, though, that trade ultimately was a win for Utah, and Sergachev's absence will haunt Bolts fans until they demonstrate they can do well without him.

BriseBois definitely gambled with this maneuver, and there’s a chance it can pay off with a deeper post-season run for his team in 2024-25 or more players for their future. But there’s also a chance he’ll regret moving on from Sergachev, whose best years may well be to come.

Landing a top-minute-munching defenseman is difficult, and Utah had the best player in that trade. Should the Lightning suffer in their own zone this coming year, fans can point to the Sergachev trade as a key reason why the Bolts were hurting.

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