Norris Trophy Tracker: Makar, Hughes And Werenski Neck And Neck As Finish Looms

If Quinn Hughes had managed to join Team USA for the 4 Nations Face-Off championship game Thursday, it would’ve been more than just a major boost to the American roster. It would’ve brought the three frontrunners for the Norris Trophy under one roof.

Hughes, Cale Makar and Zach Werenski are all enjoying sublime seasons with their NHL clubs, making this year’s challenge for the league’s top defender one of the hardest to gauge in recent memory. 

Sure, Roman Josi put up a real fight against Makar in the 2021-22 season, even finishing with more first-place ballots in his second-place finish. And Erik Karlsson narrowly similarly beat Drew Doughty in 2014-15. 

But a true three-way race where nobody can be counted out? That’s a rarity that may be possible this year with Hughes, Makar and Werenski.

The former two each have a Norris under their belt and are on pace to match or exceed their previous single-season point marks. They’re undoubtedly the two best offensive D-men in the world and are perennial Norris contenders for a reason.

Joining them in their elite echelon this year is Werenski, who after nine seasons with Columbus is somehow having a coming-out party. He’s already established a career-best 59 points while carrying the Blue Jackets back into playoff contention for the first time since 2020.

The three blueliners are only separated at the top of defenseman scoring by four points, so offensive production is almost a draw when comparing them for the big award. Hughes is on a pro-rated 100-point pace over 82 games, but an injury has hampered him through February. In previous years, scoring has essentially been a trump card over other defensive contributions. Karlsson holding a 25-point margin over the next-closest defender in 2022-23 all but sealed his third Norris win.

If all things are considered equal on the offensive front this year, what should the difference be? Well, it should come down to a balance of value versus impact. Some defenders have to make do with less talent around them, but results — regardless of team performance — can’t be ignored.

It’s clear that the three defenders’ teams offer different safety nets and levels of support for their respective No. 1 defensemen. According to MoneyPuck.com, when Hughes is off the ice, his Canucks hold a paltry 34.8 percent expected goals, compared to 47.5 and 41.7 percent for Makar and Werenski, respectively. Hughes’ relative expected goals is a ridiculous 28.2 percent, nearly double the next-closest D-man, and he leads the Canucks in scoring by 24 points. Vancouver’s struggles to find a suitable D-partner for Hughes are also well-documented. He doesn’t have a Devon Toews by his side. So if you want to play the most-valuable-to-his-team card, Hughes looks pretty good in that regard.

That same argument extends to Werenski, and it isn’t a hard one to make. Werenski paces the Blue Jackets in points and his most frequent partner has been Dante Fabbro, who has been a great fit but lacks the same status as someone like Toews. And although not explicitly related to the qualifications for the Norris, Columbus squeaking into the playoffs this year would surely help Werenski’s case.

Meanwhile, Makar has spent considerable time this season playing with Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Martin Necas, who sit first, ninth and twelfth in league scoring. He’s hardly a merchant, but it’s been argued before that Makar greatly benefits from regular shifts with the reigning Hart Trophy winner. He also benefits from the highest percentage of offensive zone starts (22.6 percent) among all defenders.

However, the Norris clearly isn’t an MVP award — it’s awarded to the defender that demonstrates “the greatest all-round ability in the position.” 

In that respect, Makar’s results speak for themselves. Talented teammates or not, the Avs rearguard leads defenders in points, expected goals, takeaways and shot attempts. He’s a power-play beast and his penalty kill usage has also increased. He’s clearly an improved player from the first time he won the Norris in 2021-22.

In defense of Hughes, he possesses the superior Corsi (62 percent) and Fenwick (62 percent) metrics and the lowest Corsi against per 60 among defenders, making a strong argument for both his value and impact. Comparatively, Werenski is nowhere near Hughes’ level this season in terms of limiting other teams’ chances.

For traditionalists, Werenski and Makar make up ground in some of the grittier defensive stats, like blocked shots and takeaways. Unsurprisingly, the smallest of the Hughes brothers vastly underperforms in those areas. Those numbers aren’t representative of play-driving ability, but the old-school crowd tends to value them.

At the end of the day, if the Norris is understood to include consideration for the value that a defender provides his team, Hughes and Werenski have the stronger cases. They’re leaned on for offense in a much more substantive way than Makar and are the undisputed best players on their respective clubs.

But nobody can argue that Makar, a proven Norris, Conn Smythe and Stanley Cup winner, isn’t still leading all defensemen in scoring while excelling on both sides of the puck. It’s not his fault that he happens to play with the second-best player in the world, but it would be his fault if he failed to capitalize on that gift. Of course, Makar does take full advantage, and it’s hard to penalize great players for making the most of their ice time with other great players.

Sometimes, when the race is this close, the tie-breaker goes to the guy who’s been there before.

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