The hockey world will be closely watching the NHL's 2025 4 Nations Face-Off event as a potential harbinger of what's to come for the 2026 Winter Olympics, but several factors could drastically change the power dynamic in the time between the two tournaments.

As THN.com’s Olympic Week draws to a close, we’re going to offer some perspective on the 2026 Winter Olympics' men’s hockey tournament – specifically, in terms of not letting you put too much stock in the NHL’s 2025 4 Nations Face-Off as a harbinger of what will take place one year later. For reasons we’ll explore below, it’s clear that the many factors that will affect the 4 Nations Face-Off could be significantly different in the 2026 Games.

For one thing, there’s the ever-changing factor of health heading into each of the two tournaments. Between now and February 2025, the best players and teams in the world could be notably changed by injuries. Of course, injuries are as unpredictable as it gets, but say Canadian superstar Connor McDavid is hamstrung by a major injury heading into the 4 Nations Face-Off, Canada’s chances of winning that tournament will be severely adversely affected. And if McDavid returns to good health in 2026, the Canadian team will be one of the odds-on favorites to take home a gold medal at the Games in Italy.

In addition, there’s the wild-card factor of Russia’s participation. We now know that the NHL and NHL Players’ Association have excluded Russia from participating in the 4 Nations Face-Off, but that could change by the time the 2026 Games come around. 

The International Ice Hockey Federation has given a deadline of May 2025 to decide whether to allow Russia to compete in the 2025-26 season, and the IIHF is keeping Russia’s men’s hockey team eligible for the 2026 Games in case the ban on Russian teams is lifted. Clearly, if the Russians do participate in the 2026 Games, they’re going to be in the running for a medal. But world events will help dictate their eligibility, and that’s a factor that could change things between the 4 Nations Face-Off and the 2026 Games.

Finally, there’s the emergence of young talent between 2025 and 2026 that could significantly alter who wins the 4 Nations Face-Off and who wins the 2026 Games. With youngsters including Canada’s Connor Bedard and Sweden’s Leo Carlsson just finding their NHL footing, their evolution in the next two years could greatly impact the chances of their respective teams winning each tournament. 

And those are just the names of familiar youngsters. There could be players almost completely off the radar of teams at the moment who emerge into difference-makers a year or two from now. That also could change things in net for the contending teams, as we know now that goaltending inconsistencies can greatly affect the outcomes of games at the highest levels.

All things considered, hockey powerhouses like Canada and the United States are likely going to be prominent at both the 4 Nations Face-Off and the 2026 Olympics. But upsets are a huge part of international hockey showdowns, and that’s why they play the games. There is no coronation for teams simply because they have the best squad on paper. You have to earn your flowers in best-on-best tournaments, and if there are even slight variations in terms of chemistry and effectiveness, the winners of the 4 Nations Face-Off and the 2026 Games could be drastically different.

There are known unknowns and unknown unknowns at play in sports, and there’s no question things can change rapidly in games between the best of the best. That’s what makes sports so compelling, and that’s why you should never believe a team is going to win one tournament simply because they won the previous tournament. It’s all up in the air, and just about anything can happen when puck luck and strange bounces have an impact on the final results.