It's expected to be a tight battle between the Rangers, Devils and Hurricanes at the top of the Metropolitan Division, as Adam Proteau gives his 2023-24 division prediction.

Now that it’s September, it’s the ideal time to put together some fun forecasts for the looming NHL regular season. 

In 2023-24, there’s going to be massive competition just to qualify for the Stanley Cup playoffs, let alone being the one team left standing and hosting the Cup. As always, we’ll remind you that these pre-season predictions come after speaking to NHL agents, scouts and media members; there is no guarantee of 100-percent success, but this is a fun way to lay out expectations in the micro and macro sense for the new season.

Today, please enjoy this look at the division we think will have the most ferocious competition – the Metropolitan Division. Seven of that division’s teams see themselves as playoff teams, but in reality, at best, there will be only five teams that do make the post-season. And that means at least two, if not three, teams will be extremely disappointed next spring. But let’s break down every team’s additions and subtractions and offer up one writer’s opinion on how things will shake out:

1. New York Rangers

In: Blake Wheeler (RW), Nick Bonino (C), Tyler Pitlick (RW), Erik Gustafsson (D), Jonathan Quick (G), coach Peter Laviolette

Out: Tyler Motte (C), Vladimir Tarasenko (RW), Patrick Kane (RW), Jaroslav Halak (G), Niko Mikkola (D), coach Gerard Gallant

Why they’re picked in this position: We’re banking on the moves Rangers GM Chris Drury has made this summer as the reason we’re putting them atop the Metro this season – that, and the fact they have the best goaltender of the top three teams in the division. 

Igor Shesterkin had a down year by his own high standards, but still putting up individual numbers most NHL goalies would kill for: a .916 save percentage and 2.48 goals-against average in a career-high 58 appearances in 2022-23. However, in the post-season, Shesterkin turned up his game, posting a .931 SP and 1.96 GAA. 

The Blueshirts’ skaters didn’t help him much against their rivals from New Jersey in the first round, but Drury has added nice secondary pieces in Wheeler, Bonino, Gustafsson, Pitlick and Quick. The only potential area of concern is Quick, as he’ll be 38 years old by the time the playoffs arrive, and he didn’t exactly have a bounce-back season with the Kings and Golden Knights.

It’s something Drury might address during the season, but for now, the jury is out on Quick’s potential contributions this season. That said, so long as Shesterkin stays healthy, the Rangers have every chance at finishing first in the Metro. Their defense is deep and well-rounded. Their offense should be plentiful, especially if one or both of youngsters Kappo Kaako and Alexis Lafreniere step up and provide above-par secondary scoring.

Drury has done well this summer, and now, he’s got a brand new, quality-proven coach in Peter Laviolette – so expectations should be at their peak for this group. If they don’t finish as one of the top three Metro teams, there could be severe consequences. But we don’t see them underachieving. Instead, we think this will be a huge year for them.

2. New Jersey Devils

In: Tyler Toffoli (LW), Chris Tierney (C), Tomas Nosek (LW), Colin Miller (D)

Out: Tomas Tatar (LW), Damon Severson (D), Yegor Sharangovich (LW), Miles Wood (LW), Ryan Graves (D)

Why they’re picked in this position: The Devils finished just one point behind the first-place Carolina Hurricanes this past season, and despite some notable changes in the fringes of their roster this summer, New Jersey could be the best team in the Metro in 2023-24. 

Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald has masterfully constructed this roster to be one of the quickest, most skilled teams in the league, and it would be shocking if New Jersey wasn’t in one of the top three positions in the division.

The Devils’ biggest question this season will be who is their regular starting goalie. The No. 1 job was captured by rookie Akira Schmid in the post-season, but veteran Vitek Vanecek appeared in a team-high 52 games while putting up a .911 SP and 2.45 GAA. Unfortunately for him, Vanecek’s game disappeared in the playoffs, where he had a 4.64 GAA and an .825 SP.

Even if coach Lindy Ruff goes with a platoon approach that gives Vanecek and Schmid approximately an even amount of appearances, the Devils will very probably have enough talent from their netminders to allow their high-octane offense to win them more games than they lose.

Making the post-season is an absolute must for New Jersey this year, but so is making it to the Eastern Conference final and beyond. Their core of forwards and defensemen remains outstanding, and they’re going to give every opponent a run for their money before they try and make a deep playoff push. 

New Jersey may be the sexy pick for pundits this season, but that’s for good reason: they’re dynamic, dangerous and not even close to their peak.

3. Carolina Hurricanes

In: Michael Bunting (LW), Brendan Lemieux (LW), Dmitry Orlov (D), Tony DeAngelo (D), Caleb Jones (D)

Out: Max Pacioretty (LW), Shayne Gostisbehere (D), Paul Stastny (C), Calvin de Haan (D), Derek Stepan (C)

Why they’re picked in this position: Before you get your briefs in a bunch, let’s remind you our position about the Metro is that any one of the Rangers, Devils or Hurricanes could win the Metro this season. We just happen to think the Canes are going to take the smallest of steps backward this season, even though basically the same roster finished atop the division in 2022-23. 

In the wake of the moves made by New Jersey and the Rangers this off-season, we can also see Carolina slide down a couple of places, even if they only lose out of the top couple spots by two or three standings points.

To be honest, we’re not crazy about the Hurricanes’ veteran goalies – 33-year-old Frederik Andersen and 34-year-old Antti Raanta, both of whom had acceptable but not excellent years last season. Andersen did have a better post-season in nine appearances, but this column is about predicting the regular season. The truth is, the Hurricanes probably have the third-best goaltending tandem behind the Rangers and Islanders. That fact could be the difference between them winning the division and finishing in the third spot or lower.

Again, it’s a fine line between excelling and taking a drop in the standings for Carolina. They might have the best defense corps in the entire league – especially now that they’ve added Orlov to their top two defense pairings – and they’ve got one of the most respected coaches in Rod Brind’Amour. But they’ll need to be at their very best and avoid the injury bug if they’re to win the Metro as they did last season.

4. Pittsburgh Penguins

In: Erik Karlsson (D), Reilly Smith (LW), Matt Nieto (LW), Noel Acciari (RW), Rem Pitlick (LW), Lars Eller (C), Vinnie Hinostroza (C), Ryan Graves (D), Alex Nedeljkovic (G), GM Kyle Dubas

Out: Jason Zucker (LW), Mikael Granlund (C), Jeff Petry (D), Brian Dumoulin (D), Jan Rutta (D), Danton Heinen (LW), Casey DeSmith (G), Ryan Poehling (C), Josh Archibald (RW), GM Ron Hextall

Why they’re picked in this position: Let’s play "Ask ourselves some questions and give ourselves some answers": 

Are the Penguins a better team than the one that finished one point out of a playoff spot this past season? Yes, yes they are. 

Has new GM Dubas done well to improve their defense corps, with Karlsson and Graves both significant upgrades? Yes, yes he has. 

However, are the Pens still an older, flawed team? That’s right. They’re still old, and if starting goalie Tristan Jarry falters in the first year of a lucrative contract extension while first-year Penguin goalie understudy Nedeljkovic continues to have problems being consistently good, their goaltending could be their downfall.

Of course, when you talk about Pittsburgh, you can’t help but give them the benefit of the doubt surrounding their aging core of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, and now Karlsson because they’re all so accomplished. But they can only help the team so much, and it may come down to Jarry’s durability. Last season, he appeared in 47 games, a drop-off from a career-high 58 appearances the previous campaign. Jarry now carries a cap hit of $5.375 million for the next five seasons, and the 28-year-old has to carry his weight.

In his first summer running the Penguins, Dubas has basically made over their entire bottom six forwards, and that should ease the strain on Crosby and company to do all the heavy lifting during the grind of the regular season. If Jarry even posts relatively mediocre stats, Pittsburgh’s offense should be enough of a needle-mover to make the playoffs. But unless something drastically improves for them as a group, they’re going to be underdogs in the playoffs against one of the Rangers, Devils or Hurricanes, and a first-round playoff loss will be another squandered year for their legendary competitors. 

Dubas has doubled down on his core, but the Pens’ lack of internal improvement may prove to be their downfall once again.

5. Columbus Blue Jackets

In: Adam Fantilli (C), Dmitri Voronkov (LW), Ivan Provorov (D), Damon Severson (D), coach Mike Babcock

Out: Jakub Voracek (RW), Gavin Bayreuther (D), Lane Pederson (C), Michael Hutchinson (G), coach Brad Larsen

Why they’re picked in this position: Yes, we’re giving the “sleeper” playoff pick to Columbus in the East this season. 

Too many things that could’ve gone wrong actually did go wrong for them in 2022-23, and we can see the competitive pendulum swing in the opposite direction for them this season. 

For starters, the Blue Jackets will begin the season as a healthy group of players – and, in particular, the presence of star defenseman Zach Werenski will push them forward in the standings. Then, you’ve got the acquisitions of veteran blueliners Provorov and Severson that give Columbus a solid top-four group of D-men. The new blood of youngsters Fantilli and Voronkov challenging Blue Jackets veterans for playing time will also improve the overall competitiveness of the franchise.

Yes, Columbus still has a fairly long way to go before they’re regarded as a legitimate Cup front-runner, but Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen is under intense pressure to produce a playoff-caliber team, and he just might have it on his hands this season. The larger question is whether Columbus will carve out a wild-card berth as a fifth-place team in the Metro – and our hunch is they will at least be there in the final couple weeks of the season, battling Atlantic Division teams to earn that final spot.

The Blue Jackets have a solid talent base, a demanding (and humbled) bench boss in Babock, and almost $5.73 million in cap space to address any in-season needs. Just as everything went wrong for them in 2022-23, we believe the stars will line up for them and give their long-suffering fan base something to really cheer for.

6. New York Islanders

In: Julien Gauthier (RW)

Out: Josh Bailey (RW), Zach Parise (LW), Parker Wotherspoon (D), Cole Bardreau (C)

Why they’re picked in this position: We’re not suggesting teams that made few moves this summer should be designated as playoff wannabees, but really, Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello? Not a single big roster addition? 

It’s not as if the Isles blew the hockey world away last season, but Lamoriello has fully embraced the status quo for 2023-24, and despite having possibly the game’s best goalie in Ilya Sorokin, there’s not a great deal of depth on Long Island that can be the difference-maker for the Islanders this coming year.

Sure, a full year with star center Bo Horvat as the top pivot on the roster will be a positive thing for the Isles. And their defense corps probably doesn’t get the respect it deserves. Nevertheless, an injury here or there will expose the Islanders’ lack of depth and their relatively underwhelming group of prospects. 

Lamoriello does have his next three first-round draft picks to use in a trade, and we know he’s unafraid to pull the trigger on in-season moves. But the Isles had trouble generating offense in '22-23 – their 242 goals-for were the third-fewest in the Metro, and it’s hard seeing where there’s going to be a surge in that department this season.

The Islanders have a dedicated fan base, and their ownership has shown it’s prepared to spend to the cap ceiling. But if it feels like their group is less than the sum of their parts, and if they do plummet down the Metro rankings and miss the playoffs altogether, it will be intriguing to see how Lamoriello reacts to the disappointment that will reverberate through the organization.

Sometimes you have to bottom out before you get better in a meaningful way, and it’s possible that’s the Isles’ fate this year.

7. Washington Capitals

In: Max Pacioretty (LW), Matthew Phillips (RW), Joel Edmundson (D), coach Spencer Carbery

Out: Conor Sheary (LW), Craig Smith (C), Connor Brown (RW), Gabriel Carlsson (D), Carl Hagelin (LW), coach Peter Laviolette

Why they’re picked in this position: The Capitals – once one of the most fearsome teams with the puck in their heyday – are now a relatively barren group on offense. Last season, only three of the players they finished the year with had more than 38 points, so it’s no wonder why they finished with just 253 goals-for last season. 

You can see why Caps GM Brian MacLellan parted ways with Laviolette and replaced him with Carbery, who ran the Toronto Maple Leafs’ very efficient power play the past two years. But after that, MacLellan only made a few roster additions, which is more than a little shocking given the fact the Capitals finished a dozen points out of the final wild-card berth in 2022-23.

Caps optimists will argue that having a healthy lineup – not to mention a full year with young defenseman Rasmus Sandin, who was excellent after being acquired from the Leafs at the trade deadline – will give them enough of a bump to be a playoff team. We’re not that optimistic for them, as we also have to bear in mind their best center, Evgeny Kuznetsov, still wants to be traded. Washington does have some elite players, but they don’t have enough depth to help them get beyond any injuries that do pop up during the season. Nobody believes they have the overall talent to do any damage, even if they did surprise people and made the playoffs.

This is not a criticism of their veterans; rather, it’s an acknowledgment that Father Time eventually comes for even the best teams, and it sure feels like the Capitals are going to slide further down the Metro’s pecking order in 2023-24.

8. Philadelphia Flyers

In: Ryan Poehling (C). Garnet Hathaway (RW), Marc Staal (D), Sean Walker (D), Cal Petersen (G)

Out: Kevin Hayes (RW), Tony DeAngelo (D), James van Riemsdyk (LW), Brendan Lemieux (LW), Ivan Provorov (D), Justin Braun (D)

Why they’re picked in this position: By just about every metric, the Flyers look to be worse than they were last season – and last season, they were the second-worst team in the Metro. But just as not all that glitters is gold, so too is it true that not every bad team is devoid of genuine hope. And that’s the situation in Philly, where new GM Briere has shown the willingness to call a spade a spade and embark on a much-needed full rebuild.

We’ve always said Flyers fans would welcome a rebuild if it brought them generational talents – and they appear to have got one in the 2023 draft, with the selection of Russian phenom Matvei Michkov at the No. 7 overall slot. Now, Michkov may not be cleared to play in Philadelphia for a few years, but when he is ready, he projects to be a difference-maker of the quality that has rarely been seen in Philly.

Until then, Briere’s job continues to be moving out veterans who will be past their prime by the time the rebuild completely makes over the roster. And when the Flyers finish at the bottom of the Metro this season, they’ll get another top draft pick to be part of their foundation of talent. Before that point in time, there’s going to be suffering, but it will be suffering for good reason. Better days are eventually ahead, and while the Flyers will struggle, at least their management hasn’t fooled itself into thinking more of their group than the rest of us did.