It's far too soon even to wonder if Juraj Slafkovsky is a bust. The Montreal Canadiens winger isn't far off from past towering top 10 NHL draft picks, and we can blame a couple of superstars for sky-high expectations, writes Tony Ferrari.

We’ve become so impatient, and it’s Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews’ fault.

They took the NHL by storm in a way we haven’t seen since Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin. They were more than impact players on Day 1 of their NHL careers – they were superstars the second they stepped on NHL ice.

Ever since their rookie years, we have asked every first overall pick to step into the NHL and dominate. That’s just simply not the case in the vast majority of cases. 

Insert Montreal Canadiens winger Juraj Slafkovsky. The 6-foot-3 Slafkvosky is a victim of unrealistic expectations as the 2022 first overall pick.

Historically, first overall picks are expected to jump into the NHL almost immediately and become game-changers. From recent top picks, such as Jack Hughes (2019) and Alexis Lafreniere (2020), to older No. 1 selections, such as Steven Stamkos (2008) and Joe Thornton (1997), they have been overwhelmed almost as often as they have been an impact player.

Statistically, it’s hard to match up with the game’s best even-strength goal-scorer and the most dynamic offensive presence we’ve seen in decades. No player since has produced at the same rates. Rasmus Dahlin has produced at a historic rate for a European defender. Nico Hischier surprised with an impressive season of his own. Since then, points have been hard to come by for everyone, Slafkovsky included.

He was far from dominant in his first NHL season last year. He played in just 39 games before a knee injury cut his rookie year short. His 10 points in that span of time were nothing to get overly excited about. He averaged 12:12 of ice time per game, relegated to bottom-six duty for much of his abbreviated season. All in all, it was a rather forgettable season for the then-18-year-old, and there were a number of factors as to why.

Opportunity is the most obvious factor. The Montreal Canadiens were not a very good team last year. It has to be earned, but coach Martin St-Louis has been known as a player’s coach who gives young guys room to run. Slafkovsky didn’t earn much playing time in the top six, and that led to him playing with the bottom end of the roster. His most common linemates last season were Jake Evans, Christian Dvorak, Josh Anderson and Michael Pezzetta.

The Canadiens have some solid offensive talent, but it’s not as if they are four lines deep. Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield formed a dynamic duo last season before Caufield suffered an injury of his own. Kirby Dach looked like a solid top-six option, whether he was playing down the middle or on the wing. The Habs don’t have a plethora of options when it comes to skilled offensive players, but they need to make sure they are putting their prized prospect in a position to succeed.

There is also some evidence that suggests bigger players often take more time developmentally. Thornton certainly fits into that at 6-foot-4 – the possible Hockey Hall of Famer had just seven points in 55 games during his rookie year. 

This has been a trend. Very few players 6-foot-3 or taller have the co-ordination and mobility to keep up at the NHL level at 18 years old. They have quite literally been growing and filling out their frame until that point, and learning how to play their game with an added couple of inches can be difficult.

We have seen Slafkovsky have some issues with his balance and pace, being thrown off his feet from body contact from smaller players. Although he is built like a horse at 6-foot-3 and 238 pounds coming into this season, he lacked the strength and sturdiness last year that allowed him to stay on his feet against the best players in the world.

From understanding how to maneuver your feet to staying in control of your stick offensively and defensively, it can be quite the adjustment. The NHL is the fastest-paced and most skilled league in the world. Learning on the fly isn’t easy – less so when you’re learning your own body.

Since 2015, 10 forwards were drafted in the top 10 who stand at 6-foot-3 or above. Only one of them eclipsed 28 points in their first 50 games: Patrik Laine, who had a rookie season that made him one of the league’s most feared pure goal-scorers. Only two players reached the 20-point plateau, as all-world grinder Brady Tkachuk hit 28.

When you remove Slafkovsky and Byfield, the two most recent draftees on the list, the average career high for the players 6-foot-3 or larger is 61.75 points. While that isn’t game-breaking, it is effective. Mikko Rantanen, Brady Tkachuk and Patrik Laine have all been stars in the NHL. Dylan Cozens is a budding star in his own right. Many of these players saw some time in the AHL before solidifying an NHL gig.

Almost all of them started off slow. Slafkovsky hasn’t even reached 50 games yet.

Slafkovsky was a late riser in the draft cycle, truly jumping into first overall consideration after an impressive Olympic performance in which he had seven goals in seven games. The issue is that his Olympic MVP performance may have thrust more expectations upon him. Slafkovsky has always been a good goal-scorer, but when you watch his tape going back to his draft year, aside from a highly unsustainable shooting spree at the Olympics, he has generally been a big playmaking winger.

One of Slafkovsky’s biggest assets was his ability to work off of the boards and make plays to the middle of the ice. Both as a skater and passer, Slafkovsky would use his strength and frame to win puck battles, roll out of the pressure and find a teammate in the slot for a scoring chance. His passing skill and maneuverability off of the boards are where he made his hay at the Liiga and junior hockey levels.

This pre-season, we’ve seen Slafkovsky flash much of the skill and strength that was more consistently a part of his game in his draft year. Last year, it was noticeably lacking. He’s displayed a better feel for the puck on his stick and how to leverage his size along the boards and in space this pre-season. If this all continues heading into the season and he can add a bit more finish to his game, we will all look back on the discourse that’s been happening around Slafkovsky and laugh. If not, the questions and concerns will only grow louder.

While there are a number of factors as to why Slafkovsky has “disappointed” to this point, the commentary that has gone on is rushed. With the instant gratification society we live in, paired with the warped expectations that Matthews and McDavid set for first overall picks, we have seen a number of wild takes about Slafkovsky being a bust before he has even turned 20 years old or played in 50 NHL games. It’s simply too soon to make any sweeping judgments on Slafkovsky.

Your friendly neighborhood bald NHL draft analyst is here to tell you that it’s time to relax. Slafkovksy has plenty of time to continue his development and become an impact player for the Canadiens.