The goalie profession is fraught with uncertainty. Adam Proteau says that's why there's hesitancy to hand Jeremy Swayman and Igor Shesterkin long-term, massive-money deals.
Jake Oettinger, Igor Shesterkin, Jeremy Swayman and Cam TalbotThe goaltending business in the NHL is like the pitching business in baseball.
One year, you’re on top, thriving and delivering crucial performances in an area that must do well for any team to win consistently.
Another year, you’re fumbling and bumbling and looking like you don’t know how to win.
That’s what makes NHL goalies such a delicate group – and why teams and GMs are so wary of committing big money and long term to the best at that position. Just ask New York Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin, who's reportedly looking to reset the goalie market with next season's contract per TSN's Pierre LeBrun, and Boston Bruins RFA Jeremy Swayman, who could want at least $10 million annually.
But first, let’s look at the current goaltending picture to illustrate what we’re talking about. And let’s look at one particular situation – John Gibson’s current deal with the Anaheim Ducks. In 2018, Gibson signed an eight-year, $51.2-million deal that pays him an average of $6.4 million per season.
At the time, the deal was considered a savvy investment for a netminder who was just 25 years old and posting consistently strong numbers, including a 2.43 goals-against average and .926 save percentage in 60 games played in 2017-18.
But since then, Gibson has not been one of the better goaltenders in the game, and that's taking into account team performance. Since his current contract began in 2019-20, Gibson’s save percentage has never been better than .904, and his goals-against average has never been better than 2.98. He had a 3.54 GAA and and .888 SP in 46 games last season while allowing a minus-9.6 goals saved above expected, according to moneypuck.com.
Fellow Ducks netminder Lukas Dostal got increased playing time as a result and posted a slightly better 3.33 GAA and .902 SP, making it possible he becomes the team's new starter.
But because Gibson's deal runs for three more seasons, his trade value has been extremely low.
It’s been obvious Gibson could use a change of scenery from the rebuilding Ducks, but nobody has stepped up to take on his services. And unless Anaheim buys out Gibson’s remaining years, he will be stuck with the Ducks until further notice.
Sergei Bobrovsky once looked like he was going the same route as Gibson. His numbers were fantastic with the Columbus Blue Jackets, and he signed a seven-year deal with the Florida Panthers worth $10 million annually. Then, his performance dropped, and he became unreliable in his first two seasons with Florida. In 2022-23, his goals-against average exceeded 3.00 before excelling in the playoffs. But in the end, Bobrovsky made that contract worth it by backstopping them to a Stanley Cup.
The ups and downs of hockey goaltending nowadays have also affected other netminders with six years or more on their deals. They include Philipp Grubauer with the Seattle Kraken, St. Louis Blues netminder Jordan Binnington – who overcame a couple of years of shaky netminding by posting a .913 SP last season – and Jacob Markstrom, who rotated between up and down years with the Calgary Flames. (The New York Islanders' Ilya Sorokin gets the benefit of the doubt for now since he's only starting his eight-year contract this year after losing starter's duties by the playoffs last season.)
You can understand, then, why hockey executives are so loathe to hand out big-money, long-term contracts. For every success story between the pipes, two or three cautionary tales scare the dickens out of GMs and owners. That’s why Shesterkin and Swayman have not gotten what they’re looking for.
Even if teams are convinced Swayman and Shesterkin are worth more than $10 million per season – the present-day upper ceiling for goalies, with Bobrovsky and former Canadiens great Carey Price establishing the high-end of the market – contract term very well could be what is holding up signatures being placed on new contracts.
That doesn’t mean star netminders like Shesterkin and Swayman cannot have long and productive careers. But examples like Gibson demonstrate the potential for six-, seven- or eight-year deals to blow up in a team’s face. Those deals can keep GMs awake at night for thousands of nights to come.
Now, some goalies look to be worth the risk. In the right circumstances and on the right teams, goalies can be a good fit, even at the high end of the payday scale.
Bobrovsky's Stanley Cup win turned the focus away from his high cap hit. Still, the 36-year-old is under contract for the next two seasons, and his deal probably won’t be seen as team-friendly by the time it expires.
Andrei Vasilevskiy helped lead the Tampa Bay Lightning to two Stanley Cups with a $9.5-million cap hit, and only last season did he take somewhat of a step back. He has four seasons left on his contract to prove last season was a blip.
The Winnipeg Jets' Connor Hellebuyck and Nashville Predators' Juuse Saros recently agreed to eight-year deals. But considering two-time Vezina winner Hellebuyck carries an $8.5-million cap hit and fellow heavily-played starter Saros agreed to a $7.74-million cap hit, their teams played it safe with salary to take a risk on term.
Other than those examples, teams now change goalies so frequently that it’s almost laughable. The Los Angeles Kings, for example, have switched goaltenders constantly in recent years, moving from longtime star Jonathan Quick to stop-gap netminders Pheonix Copley, Joonas Korpisalo, Cam Talbot and this year’s goalie, Darcy Kuemper. If any of them had signed long-term contracts in recent years, the Kings would be regretting it. Just ask the Ottawa Senators how signing Korpisalo to a five-year deal turned out for them – at least a $4-million cap hit was easy to retain salary on in a trade to the Bruins.
Shesterkin and Swayman have a great deal of leverage, but NHL teams are trying to be as risk-protected as possible. It’s not always fair to goaltenders, who play fewer games than the skaters, but it certainly is the fact of life at the moment. Perhaps Swayman or Shesterkin will take the paydays for goaltenders to new levels, but don’t be surprised if teams continue to be conservative in the money and contract term that’s handed out.
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