Jason Chen gives the in-depth fantasy hockey breakdown after the St. Louis Blues traded Vladimir Tarasenko to the New York Rangers.
Jason Chen gives the in-depth fantasy hockey breakdown after the St. Louis Blues traded Vladimir Tarasenko to the New York Rangers.
All this talk about how trades have been difficult to make with the flat cap and ballooning cap hits has not prevented the teams from making big moves. Sure, retaining salary has made it easier, but it’s just more of the growing evidence that there’s no such thing as an untradeable contract.
Vladimir Tarasenko requested a trade two years ago, and the Blues finally acquiesced by sending him to the Rangers with Niko Mikkola for winger Sammy Blais, prospect Hunter Skinner and two picks. It’s the second big trade piece to get taken off the board following Bo Horvat’s trade to the Islanders last week, and it also effectively puts the Rangers out of the running for Timo Meier and Patrick Kane.
Here’s your trade breakdown for my fellow poolies.
On Tarasenko
No doubt, it makes the most sense right away to play Tarasenko with Artemi Panarin on the top line with Mika Zibanejad in the middle. They were linemates at the world juniors once upon a time, and Tarasenko even made a pitch for the Blues to sign Panarin many years ago. How ironic and fortuitous they would end up joining forces in Manhattan.
With all due respect to Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich, Panarin and Zibanejad are on another level talent-wise. Keep in mind this is a contract year for Tarasenko, and at 31 years old, this might be his last chance to cash in on a lucrative long-term deal. A change of scenery and a real chance at another Cup are two intangible reasons why Tarasenko’s play will improve.
Tarasenko’s struggled a little bit this season, and some of that is because the entire team has underperformed. He’s shooting at 9.7 percent right now (10 goals on 103 shots), which is three percentage points lower than his career average and five percentage points lower than last season when he had his career year.
No doubt, Tarasenko’s plus-minus and shooting efficiency should improve. The Rangers don’t need him to carry the load when it comes to scoring goals, and Panarin makes everyone’s lives easier with his elite playmaking. Even with the slight underperformance, note Tarasenko is still above average at finishing, according to hockeyviz.com.
The Ripple Effect
Slotting Tarasenko onto the top line will bump Jimmy Vesey down the depth chart. Vesey’s still a viable streaming option if he’s on a line with Chris Kreider and Vincent Trocheck, but they’re not as dynamic offensively as Panarin and Zibanejad. The fit could be better for Vesey, who has scored three points in five games, but the offensive ceiling just isn’t as high.
Considering Filip Chytil’s recent hot run, the Rangers will likely leave that line intact. As they showed in the playoffs last season, they can tip the scales in the Rangers’ favor because many teams still don’t have a third scoring line.
If Tarasenko/Panarin and Kreider/Trocheck match up against the opposition’s top two pairings, that opens up a ton of good matchups for Chytil’s line. Fantasy managers who couldn’t get their hands on Tarasenko, Panarin, Kreider and/or Trocheck should take a gamble on the ‘Kid Line’ that has worked so well previously.
That will bump Barclay Goodrow to the fourth line, which is good because he’s playing higher in the lineup than he should. It’ll also likely bump Will Cuylle and Jake Leschyshyn from the lineup. All three players have little to zero fantasy value.
Mikkola is an interesting addition to the Rangers' blueline. He’s a defensive defenseman who can rack up the hits and blocked shots in banger leagues and replace Ben Harpur on the third pairing.
Because the Rangers rely so much on their top four, expect Mikkola’s ice time to dip. Mikkola was one of the Blues’ go-to guys on the penalty kill, and he’ll likely play a similar role with the Rangers. That’s going to relieve some pressure on their top four, which means potentially more even-strength or power-play time for the rest. The defenseman to watch will be K’Andre Miller, who’s had an excellent season and scored 20 points in his past 27 games. He’s worth picking up in all formats.
For the Blues, this obviously takes their best finisher out of the lineup, and it’s probably best to avoid them unless fantasy managers are focused on keeping Jordan Kyrou and/or Robert Thomas long-term. Whoever plays on Kyrou and Thomas’ line, which is most likely Pavel Buchnevich, won’t see a big dip in production, but they’ll definitely get the toughest matchups from now on.
With Ryan O’Reilly and Ivan Barbashev on the block, that’s going to put a lot of pressure on Brayden Schenn and Brandon Saad to generate secondary offense, and I’m not sure they can do it. They don’t profile as offensive playmakers, especially Saad. Noel Acciari might get a bump, but as an impending UFA, he might get dealt, too.
Re-acquiring Blais means the Blues get a little more physical in the bottom six, and maybe that’ll help provide a spark for them to play a little meaner. That edge has disappeared a little bit, and in banger leagues, Blais is a good source of hits but not much else. It’s also a signal that the Rangers realized their mistake in trading Buchnevich for him.
TL;DR, Give Me the Spark Notes for Fantasy
Vladimir Tarasenko: Trending way up. Expect his finishing ability to improve at both even strength and on the power play. He’s the biggest winner in this trade.
Artemi Panarin/Mika Zibanejad: Trending up with a high-end finisher on their line and no longer having to drag Jimmy Vesey or even Kaapo Kakko or Alexis Lafreniere around.
Vincent Trocheck/Chris Kreider: Hold, if slightly up, since they might draw easier defensive matchups.
Jimmy Vesey: Trending down as he gets bumped from the top line, and he doesn’t produce much offense in the first place.
K’Andre Miller/Adam Fox: Trending slightly up since the addition of Niko Mikkola means they don’t have to play as much on the penalty kill, freeing them up to play more minutes at even strength or on the power play.
All of the Blues’ fantasy values for this season are negatively affected. Even the players who stand to gain more ice time, such as Logan Brown or Tyler Pitlick, won’t be on the fantasy radar. After Tarasenko, the Blues also have O’Reilly, Barbashev, Acciari, Josh Leivo on expiring contracts, which will further hurt their ability to generate offense.