The 2023 Toronto Maple Leafs Roster Bubble Power Rankings

The 2023 NHL pre-season is (mercifully) winding down as roster cut-down day inches closer on the horizon. 

Before Monday at 5 p.m. ET, teams across the league will be forced into making some difficult decisions as they attempt to lock in their opening-night rosters while remaining – or, for some, becoming – cap compliant. That includes the Toronto Maple Leafs, who boast the deadly combination of having very few open roster spots, a metric ton of players vying for them, and, quite literally, a negative amount of cap space in which they can fit.

That's what we call drama, baby. So, let's take a look at where each hopeful ranks on the roster bubble before it officially pops when the puck drops on the new season. 

1. Noah Gregor, C/RW

If the Maple Leafs weren't hydraulicly pressed up against the cap heading into this season, Gregor would already have an NHL contract. The 25-year-old has done nothing but impress as a new-age fourth-liner since joining the Leafs in camp on a PTO, showcasing his speed and tenacity on the rush and in the forecheck throughout his six pre-season games for the club thus far. 

Gregor's hands still haven't quite caught up to his fleet feet, which held him back in San Jose, but he's surprisingly developed some great early chemistry with David Kampf and Ryan Reaves while consistently putting himself in a position to score despite limited usage. While some of Toronto's younger prospects have higher ceilings, Gregor is undoubtedly more suited for the fourth line's open wing spot, and his ability to fill it at center in spot duty gives him the versatility coaches crave when filling out their bottom six. 

Once the cap dust settles, expect Gregor to sign on the dotted line. 

2. Fraser Minten, C

There's a reason why the Maple Leafs have kept Minten at camp long after his fellow CHL cohorts were returned to major junior. There's a reason why he was included on the team's annual Gravenhurst trip when prospects like Easton Cowan weren't. There's a reason why he centered the third line during the club's full-squad practice. And there's a reason why he was given the nod to play in their final home pre-season game on Thursday night with what was basically the opening night roster. 

Minten might actually make the team. Keefe himself even said so. And, frankly, he's earned it. 

This was not the plan. Minten was named captain of the Kamloops Blazers ahead of this season and was expected to return to the club in a premier role for the first time in his young career. A nine-game tryout in the NHL seemed as unlikely as the Toronto Blue Jays making competent pitching decisions in a playoff game. But Minten has pushed the impossible right up to the brink of possibility as roster cuts loom, earning a legitimate nod thanks to his remarkably pro-ready game that is anchored by an intense forecheck, deft stick and awareness that is well beyond his years. 

Minten and Matthew Knies have developed fantastic chemistry together throughout the pre-season, hemming opponents in the offensive zone and creating scoring chances out of nothing. It's not just that Minten has played well. He's complemented the game of those around him, thereby thrusting himself into a lineup discussion that he really wasn't a part of when camp opened. 

"His leadership qualities are what really stand out, and then when he gets on the ice, he competes, he is in the right spots, and he can make a play," said Keefe of Minten following the Leafs' 3-1 victory over the Canadiens on Sept. 30. 

"He is a great player. We were excited about him when we got him in the draft, but from what I have seen of his development from last year until now, it has been remarkable."

3. Sam Lafferty, RW/C/LW

Lafferty is an NHL talent with great speed and the versatility to play all three forward positions, which makes him valuable to a blender-friendly coach like Keefe. He'll almost certainly make the team out of camp, likely in a third- or fourth-line role, and be a serviceable energy grinder throughout an 82-game season that necessitates them. 

That is if Minten doesn't make the team. 

Once again, the Maple Leafs' lack of cap flexibility is going to be the tie-breaker for a lot of their roster bubble decisions, and Lafferty's $1.15-million cap hit isn't doing him any favors. 

4. Nick Robertson, LW

It's impossible not to root for Robertson, a 22-year-old who has overcome the odds at every stage of his career and is once again knocking on the door of an NHL job. 

His pre-season hasn't been bad, per se. Robertson has demonstrated what might give him the edge in a potential tiebreak for a roster spot – namely, his shot and unstoppable motor. Robertson undoubtedly has the most lethal shot in the group and has shown flashes of the talent that earned him a spot in the bubble back in 2020. But it just hasn't been consistent. And, frankly, you can't blame a kid who hasn't played hockey in 10 months for being a little rusty. 

As frustrating as it might be for the kid, starting Robertson with the Marlies and letting him regain his confidence by shooting holes through the pads of AHL-caliber goalies might be the best thing for his long-term outlook. And given that he doesn't require waivers to make that happen, it seems like a foregone conclusion. 

5. Bobby McMann, LW

With a full training camp, McMann would have very likely been a shoo-in for a fourth-line winger job thanks to his size, remarkable AHL season in 2022-23, and mere $762,500 cap hit that should be easier than most to squeeze under the cap ceiling. 

Alas, that has not been the case, as the 27-year-old entered camp on the shelf with an injury stemming from last season and, even after resuming skating towards the end of the pre-season, failed to get into a game. While all the other hopefuls around him were able to help or hurt their respective cases with tangible game action, McMann was stuck in neutral. Given that the story of the pre-season has been the number of players who elevated themselves into roster contention, that's not a great outcome. 

Still, McMann seems to fit precisely what the Leafs are trying to do with their fourth line, bringing size, tenacity and a touch of scoring prowess that could move the needle against lesser competition. His production in the AHL over the past year suggests there's little left for him to learn at that level, as well. The stars really were aligned for him to make the jump. 

The good news for McMann is he needs waivers to head back to the Marlies, which might protect him from a demotion, given that Robertson and Holmberg don't. But when looking at who would be best for the roster right now, it's tough to place him above either name. 

6. Pontus Holmberg, C/LW

Holmberg has had a great camp, continuing the promising play from his early-season audition with the Leafs in 2022-23 that made a scout sitting next to me in the press box compare him to Bob Gainey. 

I am not making that up. It really happened. Follow your dreams, kids. 

The downside here is that Holmberg doesn't necessarily bring a skill set that elevates him from the pack. He's not an elite shooter like Robertson. His speed isn't on Gregor's level. He doesn't have McMann's size. And he's not quite as effective on the forecheck as Minten. Add in a dose of waiver exemption, and he's starting the year on the farm. 

1. Simon Benoit, LD

Before you freak out, this is solely due to his NHL pedigree. 

Benoit has had a rough pre-season. Between Thursday's penalty hat trick with the main squad and some horrendous puck management on Saturday with the understudies, Benoit has not put himself in a good position with his play. 

But this is the NHL. And Benoit has what GMs love: size, experience and size. 

He's more or less this year's version of Jordie Benn, a player best suited for the AHL who can, at the very least, not give away the whole game if given sheltered minutes on the third pair when injuries crop up.

2. Conor Timmins, RD (Injured)

This one was a real kick in the shins. 

Timmins was leading the entire NHL in pre-season scoring prior to his injury last week, and after years of stops and starts in his NHL journey, he really seemed on the cusp of earning a real spot. 

I've always been higher on Timmins than most, thanks to (boomer alert) his size and offensive instincts. He's not a physical player by any means, but Timmins is a puck-moving right-shot defenseman who can use his body to create space for himself and always seems to produce at the NHL and AHL levels whenever given consistent playing time. 

This pre-season, Timmins demonstrated a poise that hadn't been seen from him in the big leagues. It wasn't just the goals and assists that moved the needle here. It was Timmins' improved hockey sense and slightly swifter foot speed that had previously held him back. 

Squeezing him onto the roster was always going to be a hassle given his $1.1-million cap hit, but Timmins had earned a look. Now, the can has been kicked roughly eight weeks down the road, during which time the Leafs can decide whether or not he'd be a better seventh option than Benoit. 

(Spoiler alert: He is). 

3. Mikko Kokkonen, LD

"When you look at where he was last year compared to now, it's incredible," praised Keefe of Kokkonen, labelling him the surprise of camp that, to this point, has featured a few. 

To have gotten a nod for Thursday's game that featured most of the NHL lineup was a massive boon for the young defender, whose steady and responsible game at the rookie tournament in Traverse City and throughout training camp has kept him afloat in a crowded battle for the final blueline spot. 

Frankly, if the Leafs are looking to keep an extra defenseman on the roster with Klingberg's status uncertain, Kokkonen is the guy. He's blown expectations out of the water since the league calendar turned and has earned the trust of the organization at both levels. 

Kokkonen isn't an elite offensive threat from the slot, and he's not a stay-at-home maestro. He just does most things really well, takes care of the puck and makes safe plays that typically help tilt the ice in his team's favor. 

If he weren't waiver-exempt, he'd be No. 1 on this list. Alas, life is not perfect. 

4. Max Lajoie, LD

Lajoie is a perfectly serviceable AHLer. A "Justin Holl who didn't make the leap," if you will. He'll be a great Marlie, be a fine example for their young blueline prospects, and everyone will live happily ever after. 

Lajoie is the buoy for this year's team. He's not bad to have around, but if you find yourself in need of his services at the NHL level, you've gone too far from shore.