For the Colorado Avalanche to avoid a shocking first-round elimination, they must follow the steps of the team they beat in last year's Cup final.
Mikko RantanenTides turn quickly in today's NHL. After barely taking a breath following the whirlwind celebration of a Stanley Cup win, those champions frequently find themselves coping with the disappointment of defeat the very next season. And it's not unusual for those defeats to come early.
On Friday, the Colorado Avalanche will try to avoid becoming another one of those statistics as they try to level their first-round playoff series against the Seattle Kraken in hostile territory at Climate Pledge Arena.
If recent history repeats, they should be all right.
Last year, the two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning fell behind 3-2 in their first-round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs, then rallied to win Games 6 and 7 to later advance all the way to their third straight final.
But if you go back to the pre-Lightning era, the trends are not so positive.
Off their Stanley Cup win in 2019, the St. Louis Blues failed to get on track in Edmonton's pandemic bubble. As the Western Conference leaders when the season was paused that March, the Blues received a bye through the qualification round. But once their games started to count, they fell behind 0-2 in their first-round series against the Vancouver Canucks and were ultimately eliminated in six games.
One year earlier, the Washington Capitals also failed to advance past Round 1 as reigning champs. The Caps built a 3-2 lead against the Carolina Hurricanes but couldn't close out the series, dropping Games 6 and 7.
After their back-to-back wins in 2016 and 2017, the Pittsburgh Penguins bowed out to those same Capitals in the second round in 2018. On the way to their first title of the back-to-back, Pittsburgh did rally from a 3-2 series deficit once, winning Games 6 and 7 against the Lightning in the second round in 2016.
For the Chicago Blackhawks, two of their three Cup wins were followed by first-round defeats — to the Vancouver Canucks in 2011 and the St. Louis Blues in 2016.
In 2011, the Blackhawks couldn't complete the rally against Vancouver after falling behind 3-0 in the first round. They lost in overtime of Game 7. One year later, the Blackhawks dug themselves a 3-1 hole before going down in six to the then-Phoenix Coyotes. But in 2013, they came back to beat the Detroit Red Wings in the second round after falling behind 3-1 and overcame a 2-1 series deficit against the Boston Bruins to win the second championship of their mini-dynasty.
After that 2013 win, Chicago started the first round in 2014 in an 0-2 hole against the Blues, then reeled off four straight wins. In the Western Conference final, they got to Game 7 despite falling into an early 3-1 hole, but they lost the series in overtime on Alec Martinez's game-winner.
Following their 2012 win, the Kings also went three rounds — and also lost their first two games in Round 1 against St. Louis before rallying. Then, they rolled through the second round before falling to the Blackhawks.
In the aftermath of their 2014 win, the Kings didn't even get to defend that title. Los Angeles finished the next regular season four points shy of a playoff berth.
Earlier this year, it looked like the Avalanche might suffer a similar fate. On Jan. 6, they were among the most-injured teams in the league, according to mangameslost.com. At that time, they were ninth in the Western Conference with a record of 19-15-3 for 41 points, three points shy of a playoff spot.
Despite their challenges, including the absence of captain Gabriel Landeskog for what proved to be the entire season, the Avs mounted a push in the second half.
In their final 45 games, they were the third-best team in the league by points percentage, with a record of 32-9-4 for 68 points. And they didn't just make the playoffs – they won the Central Division, edging out the Dallas Stars by one point, and finished third in the Western Conference.
With that kind of momentum on top of their championship pedigree, it's no wonder the experts picked the Avalanche almost unanimously to prevail over the expansion Kraken in the first round.
After unexpectedly dropping Game 1 of the series on home ice, the Avalanche looked like they were back in winning form when they erased a 2-0 lead to win Game 2, then took control in Game 3 thanks to standout performances from stars Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen.
But despite losing first-line forward Jared McCann to injury after being slammed into the glass on a late hit by Cale Makar, the Kraken carried the play in Game 4. They controlled an incredible 72.25 percent of expected goals at 5-on-5, according to naturalstattrick.com, outshot Colorado 43-22 and finished the game on the power play.
Three minutes into overtime, Jordan Eberle added another memorable game-winner to his rich personal resumé.
With Makar serving a one-game suspension in Game 5, the Kraken dominated the possession game again, this time to the tune of 59.45 percent of expected goals at 5-on-5. They capitalized on timely opportunities, building a 3-1 lead by the early part of the third period, and snuffed enough pressure that the Avs were able to manage just one goal with the extra attacker on the ice — not enough to force overtime.
Now, they're back in Seattle for Game 6 on Friday — and the expansion Kraken will have the chance to follow in the footsteps of the Vegas Golden Knights and win their first playoff series in franchise history.
The most likely route to Game 7 for Colorado will be another monster game from their stars. MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar could very well take matters into their own hands.
Between them, Rantanen (five goals) and MacKinnon (three goals) account for more than half of the 14 goals the Avalanche have scored so far in this series. No one else has more than one.
The club is very much missing the contributions of the departed Nazem Kadri and the absent Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin while hoping that Artturi Lehkonen can build off his career highs of 21 goals and 51 points from the regular season.
The Avs could also use a monster game from Alexandar Georgiev in net. His .906 save percentage and 3.03 goals-against average are in the middle of the pack so far in these playoffs, but Philipp Grubauer has been the better goalie so far in this series. After two bumpy years since he left Denver to take a big-money free-agent deal with Seattle, Grubauer sits at .918 and 2.61 through five games and has 2.4 goals saved above expected per moneypuck.com, compared to 0.6 for Georgiev.
The old cliche about the fourth game being the hardest to win in these playoffs has largely held true so far. Only Vegas has been able to eliminate its opponent on the first try. The Islanders, Panthers and Lightning all lived to fight another day.
The Avalanche will need to muster similar determination — and a little bit of puck luck — if they don't want to be the first team ever to be drowned by the Seattle Kraken.