The Capitals and Islanders Could Both Miss the Playoffs Because of the Skills Competition

The shootout has cost the Washington Capitals and New York Islanders some valuable points in the playoff race for different reasons, says Adam Proteau.

As the end of the NHL’s 2023-24 regular season plays out, certain things jump out about particular teams. And in the case of the New York Islanders and Washington Capitals, one of those things could well determine whether or not they qualify for the Stanley Cup playoffs. 

It's their shootout record, and it's not good. 

Yes, if they never needed the shootout in the first place, their struggles in the skills competition would be moot. But they have needed the shootout, and just a smidge more success would have put them ahead in an Eastern Conference playoff race that could be decided by a single point.

That said, the Caps and Isles have struggled in shootouts for different reasons.

In five shootout games this season, the Islanders have gone 1-4. Only three players have scored a goal in those five shootouts — two apiece from Bo Horvat and Oliver Wahlstrom and one from Simon Holmstrom. 

Star forward Mathew Barzal has gone 0-for-5 in shootout attempts this season. Islanders star goalie Ilya Sorokin also has not had much success in shootouts this year, allowing five goals on 13 shots for a .615 shootout save percentage.

As for the Capitals, goalie inconsistencies have sunk them in their 4-5 shootout record thus far this season. 

Starting goalie Charlie Lindgren has been a general bright spot for the Caps this year, but in the shootout, he’s gone 1-4, allowing eight goals on 19 shots for a .579 shootout save percentage. Contrast those numbers with Washington’s other goalie, Darcy Kuemper – who’s gone 3-0 in shootouts this year and turned aside all 13 shots he’s faced – and you can see why Caps coach Spencer Carbery should be sitting down Lindgren should another Washington shootout take place in one of the final seven games this season.

Washington’s scorers have also struggled to produce in shootouts, with star winger Alex Ovechkin going goalless in seven attempts this season. The Capitals traded their most productive shootout scorer, center Evgeny Kuznetsov, who had three shootout goals on six shots before he was moved to Carolina at the trade deadline. 

Other than forward Dylan Strome's two shootout goals in six shots, no Capitals skater has produced more than one shootout goal this season. Only four current members of the Washington roster have scored at all in shootouts this year: Strome, Sonny Milano, John Carlson and T.J. Oshie.

It’s true the shootout can be something of a crapshoot, with numerous factors coming into play on any given night. But at a point in NHL history where skills specialization ratchets up every season, there’s really no excuse for teams not to find goalies and shooters who can be effective once overtime ends without a winner. 

You’re almost certainly never going to score on every shot or stop every shot, but if you don’t come through with more shootout wins than losses, you’re giving up an advantage your opponents are happy to take for themselves.

Once the regular season is over, one of the Capitals or Islanders will likely be on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. If or when that happens, the fan base of the losing team is going to be haunted by their shootout failures. A few more made shootout shots here or there, a few more standings points from shootout games here or there, and things could’ve gone much differently for teams like the Isles and Caps. And they really only have themselves to blame for their competitive cookie crumbling as it has.