Record-breaking defenseman Evan Bouchard had an unreal season and post-season for the Edmonton Oilers, but with elements like McDavid and Draisaitl's future deals at play, the Oilers may be wise to show patience with Bouchard.
Seeing as the opportunity has passed to get defenseman Evan Bouchard locked into a long-term team-friendly deal, the Edmonton Oilers might as well wait to get him signed to a new deal. The franchise faces a critical juncture in managing its roster, with contract extensions for key players such as Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid taking precedence. Mild concern about one or both eventually leaving is weighing on the fan base. Amidst these high-stakes negotiations, Bouchard's contract situation looms, somewhat in the background.
Bouchard is a player the Oilers want to keep. He became eligible to sign a new deal on July 1 and is under contract for the 2024-25 season with a $3.9 million cap hit. He is set to become a restricted free agent (RFA) next summer and because Bouchard's 2023-24 season was nothing short of spectacular, the cost to re-sign him will skyrocket. He recorded a career-high 82 points in the regular season and added six goals and 32 points in 25 playoff games. He set a record for the most assists by a defenseman in a single postseason and while he was doing so, he increased his market value.
What Are the Oilers Thinking When It Comes to Bouchard’s Next Contract?
The Oilers are currently without a general manager. CEO Jeff Jackson has stepped in as acting GM and done an incredible job in the two short weeks he’s been making important draft and free agency decisions. He retained key players, signed some solid additions, and made a trade for a high-end prospect. Now that he’s tackled things on his immediate list, Jackson is primarily focused on securing an extension for Draisaitl. While speculation is that the German superstar is inclined to stay, his leaving (as unlikely as it might be) changes everything. McDavid could follow and reimaging the roster becomes the priority.
Given the importance of getting these deals done and at numbers that work for all parties involved, it is understandable that their contract negotiations are taking precedence over Bouchard's extension. To that end, The Athletic’s Daniel Nugent-Bowman is reporting the Oilers and Bouchard are unlikely to even begin contract extension talks this summer.
Why the Oilers Should Wait on Bouchard
Not signing a player early often brings some element of risk. The Oilers know this first hand as they are paying for that mistake with Darnell Nurse. Frankly, if they had to do it over again, they likely wouldn’t have signed Bouchard to that two-year bridge deal he’s currently playing on. All that said, those mistakes are in the past and there’s not much anyone can do about it now. In the case of Bouchard, should he have another incredible season, he’s merely cementing himself as a player who can consistently produce at a high level.
Bouchard would need to post an incredibly poor season to come down much from the projected $10-11 million per year he’s likely to receive on a long-term deal. The odds are he scores less than he did in 2023-24, but to suggest he’ll score so little that his number drops to a cap hit everyone will love is wishful thinking. At the same time, should he take another step forward, the numbers shouldn’t increase much from where they are now. Knowing the Oilers are likely stuck on the $10 million regardless, and Bouchard can’t play himself into much more than $11 million, it becomes prudent for the team to wait and see if his production levels off.
Bouchard Doesn’t Hold All the Leverage
As an RFA, Bouchard can’t walk if he doesn’t like the Oilers' next offer. The best he can do after the Oilers qualify him (at $4.3 million) is file for arbitration next June. It’s not a process teams and players like, but it brings with it an element of certainty. Most players sign contracts before the arbitration deadline and there’s no reason to think either side wants to go there.
The other potential risk is an offer sheet, but it’s not much of a risk. Another NHL team will have to come in higher than $11.4 million to convince Bouchard to leave. Even if they were to do it, Bouchard could still say no and not sign it. Should a team offer anywhere near that or under, the Oilers will simply match. Not matching means Edmonton gets four first-round picks as compensation. To say the least, the likelihood of an offer sheet is extremely low.
Finally, waiting allows the Oilers to take care of Draisaitl and McDavid's contracts, set the precedent that the best players are looking to stay (potentially at slight discounts), and then have Bouchard follow suit. To know where this team is at after another all-in season but also where it’s headed when the top players make their decisions are critical factors when determining what to do with Bouchard.
The Edmonton Oilers would be wise to take a measured approach with Evan Bouchard's contract extension. There are more strategic benefits to waiting than there would be to giving the player anywhere close to $10 million per season now.