Martin Necas became an elite scoring threat this season, writes Tony Ferrari. It couldn't have come at a better time for the Carolina Hurricanes.
The Carolina Hurricanes struggled to meet the expectations placed upon them to start the season. Even though they are on pace for 109 points on the year, much of that has to do with sitting tied in second for the most overtime losses with six through a third of their season.
Part of the reason that they’ve been able to keep that pace has been the emergence of the Martin Necas that they’ve been waiting for.
The Hurricanes have routinely been an outstanding team in both shot and chance suppression and generation over the last few years, with this year being no different. They have been the league's top team when it comes to shot suppression, and they generate shots at a top-five rate in the NHL.
Necas was routinely below the standard in Carolina. He was a player that opted out of playing the defensively committed system that the Canes played to play his free-wheeling brand of hockey. When the coaching staff didn’t see the 200-foot effort from him, Necas wasn’t given the opportunities at the top of the lineup.
Necas’ expected goals went from sub-50 percent in his first two full NHL seasons to just above 50 percent last year. But this year, he is above 62 percent in all situations and above 56 percent at even strength. Expected goal statistics take into account shot location and generation of a given team and assign a value based on the danger of a shot and how often it shouldn't be expected to go in.
Essentially, the Hurricanes are taking a lot of shots from the slot and home plate area on the ice while allowing very few from those areas on the defensive end of the ice when Necas is on the ice.
The underlying numbers for the team as a whole remain excellent. According to Evolving Hockey, they sit third in expected goals against and expected goals for.
So, why has Necas’ emergence as an elite scoring threat been so pivotal in the early going of the 2022-23 season?
The team goaltending hasn't been good enough despite continuing to provide the netminders with favorable environments. They currently have an .897 save percentage as a team which has been boosted by the play of Pyotr Kotchetkov, their young netminder with a .918 save percentage through 11 games. They hoped they wouldn’t have to use him with established NHL veterans Frederik Andersen (.891) and Antti Raanta (.894) in the fold.
Despite all of that, the Canes sit third in the Metropolitan Division, behind just the world-beating New Jersey Devils and the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Already two-thirds of the way to his career high in scoring, Necas is on pace to challenge a 40-goal season while approaching 90 points.
With Necas' defensive commitment and consistently making the right play to get the puck up the ice, the young Czech forward has been permitted to unleash his dynamism and cerebral mindset. The freedom to dominate on the puck comes from his commitment to play hard without it.
Necas has flashed high-end skill and potential at times in his NHL career, but he was always an outlier on the Hurricanes. On a team built on defensively committed and process-oriented players, Necas was a creative freelancer who wanted to throw the process out of the window in a lot of ways.
The Carolina Hurricanes are a team that plays the game like a "Paint by Numbers" coloring book – structured and predictable in a lot of ways, but the results speak for themselves. Necas is an artist with a blank canvas looking to create the next “Starry Night”.
The goal of bringing Necas into the fold was always to inject skill and offensive flair into the roster. He has certainly been able to do that in spurts before this season, but now that the Canes are in desperate need of a difference-maker, he’s stepped up and asserted himself as their leading scorer.
Necas is one of their most important players in transition. He does such an effective job of evading traffic through the neutral zone, shifting his weight from skate to skate while feinting one way and cutting in the opposite direction.
He enters the offensive zone with control more than just about any other Canes forward, but the biggest difference this year has been the rate at which he’s turning those entries into legitimate scoring chances.
Necas’ scoring ability this year is crucial as the team’s scoring has been vastly underwhelming.
After Necas’ 28 points, Sebastian Aho (27 points), Andrei Svechnikov (26) and Brent Burns (20) are the only players on the roster that have reached 15 points on the year through 27 games. Only seven players surpassed 10 points thus far.
Necas's step forward this year has been a massive factor in the Canes continuing to rank among the best teams in the Metropolitan Division. Carolina will likely get their goaltending figured out because they still give their netminders an incredibly easy environment to work in, and this may be the year it becomes the “Koochie” show in net with Kotchetkov taking the reigns.
The fact that Necas brings so much excitement and an entertaining style of play to the Canes cannot be undersold. Finally figuring out how to blend that "wow" factor with statistical success has been one of hockey’s most under-the-radar stories this season. Unleashing the creative stylings of hockey artist Marty Necas has been the great success of the Carolina Hurricanes and Brind’Amour this season.