Matvei Michkov was in the conversation for the 2023 No. 1 pick in 2021. After he fell slightly on draft boards, a loan to KHL Sochi put him back on the rise.

Development in hockey isn’t linear. Matvei Michkov has exemplified that perfectly over the last few years.

From going head-to-head with Connor Bedard at the 2021 World Men's Under-18 tournament as a double underager to struggling to find consistency in his draft year, Michkov has seen both ends of the spectrum as an elite prospect. Deemed borderline generational before being labelled as one-dimensional, Michkov’s development has come full circle after an outstanding finish to his draft year.

The rise of Michkov was meteoric. The next great Russian superstar. A contender to go first overall in a year that included Canadian sensation Bedard.

Coming off of a season that has never been seen at the Russian U-16 level, scoring 70 goals and putting up more than four points per game, Michkov was toying with his age group. The Russian junior level was the next test for the young Russian.

During his age-16 season at the U-20 level, Michkov exceeded any and all expectations. He set the record for both goals and points for 16-year-olds scoring at the MHL level, with 38 goals and 56 points. His totals topped Nikita Kucherov’s numbers from the 2009-10 season, where he became the first player to score more than 20 goals and record more than 50 points.

“The cerebral element to his game was what attracted everyone to his game. His shot is NHL caliber, and he plays fearlessly,” a Western Conference NHL scout said.

His goal-scoring was terrifying at the level already. Michkov’s 38 tallies led the MHL despite being as many as four years younger than many of the players in the league. Michkov’s release was undeniable. With the puckhandling ability and willingness to try just about anything, Michkov was one of the most entertaining players in hockey despite being just 16.

Michkov's real breakout party to the general hockey audience was the World Under-18 Championship that season. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the tournament was held in Texas, and two players eligible for the 2023 NHL draft took center stage.

It was one of the first times we were given the opportunity to watch Bedard and Michkov face off. It did not disappoint as Michkov and Bedard finished first and second in tournament scoring, respectively. Michkov may have taken the scoring title and MVP honors, but Bedard took home the gold medal after helping Canada beat Russia in the gold medal game.

Michkov’s 16 points were the second-highest total for a 16-year-old ever, behind the 18 points that Alexander Ovechkin (2002) and Mikhail Grigorenko (2011) scored in their respective years. Only Ovechkin scored more goals at the tournament in their age-16 season. Michkov rewrote the record books.

As a draft minus-one player last season, Michkov would yet again look like a force destined to challenge Bedard – or at least become his closest competition.

Starting the year at the Hlinka-Gretzky Cup, Michkov took the spotlight as Bedard and the Canadians pulled out of the event due to the pandemic. With a leading role on one of the top teams at the Hlinka-Gretzky Cup, the young Russian phenom did not disappoint.

His audacity as an offensive player made him dangerous every play. His precise puck handling and evasive downhill attack mentality fueled a tournament record 13 points through five games. His eight goals tied for the tournament lead as well. All of Michkov’s efforts were rewarded with a gold medal, leading the Russians to the ultimate prize.

Upon returning to the St. Petersburg program, he continued his tear of the MHL level while getting himself into a baker’s dozen KHL games. His 30 goals led all 17-year-olds despite playing in just 28 games on the Russian junior circuit last season. His 51 points placed him third among the U-18 group, having played about half as many games as the two players ahead of him. Michkov was dominant again, producing at a 1.82 point-per-game clip while being over a goal per game.

The excitement, skill, and scoring ability of Michkov captivated the Twitterverse and hockey highlight reels all year. Michkov was the best player in the MHL while spending a large chunk of his season in the KHL. While his minutes were inconsistent in the top Russian league, he found ways to produce when he got the chance.

After bouncing back and forth from the MHL to KHL, producing in a massive way against junior competition and flashing his talent against men, Michkov settled into the MHL just in time for the playoffs. He led SKA-1946 St. Petersburg Jr. to the title on the back of his playoff-leading 13 goals, including an absolute beauty that went down as the championship-winning goal.

Heading into his draft year, the hype around Michkov was at its peak. The Russian star was setting records, producing highlights, and becoming a household name in hockey circles before ever stepping foot on NHL ice.

His draft year started, questions arose, and his stock began to take a tumble.

While playing for Russia’s U-25 team during the Sochi Hockey Open in the summer, Michkov was hit awkwardly by former NHLer Alexei Emelin. The young Russian star was hurt on the play, leaving the U-25 team and given a recovery timeline of two months. Michkov was dealt a bad hand before the season ever had the chance to get started.

Thankfully for Michkov, the injury occurred at the beginning of August. The impact on his season would be minimal in terms of missed time. Any lingering issues would be another story.

On Sept. 28, Michkov made his return with a two-minute appearance in a KHL game for St. Petersburg. This would routinely be the case when with the KHL club. He played in just three games for St. Petersburg throughout the year.

After his first KHL game, Michkov was sent to the VHL to play for SKA-Neva St. Petersburg, Russia’s second-level men's league. Here, Russia’s next great forward began to find his way, at least on the stat sheet.

Michkov’s VHL time was record-setting when it came to per-game statistics. His 14 points in 12 games were good for 1.17 points per game. Michkov’s 10 goals were good for 0.83 goals per game. Both set a new standard for a draft-eligible player in the VHL, eclipsing the previous marks by nearly double.

Ivan Miroshnichenko, drafted 20th overall in 2022 by Washington, was the only player to match his raw goal output at the level, but he did so in 31 games. Michkov ranks sixth all-time in raw points as a draft-eligible player in the VHL, with Bogdan Yakimov’s 22 points in 2012-13 being the high-water mark, but every player above Michkov played in more than 30 games. None had a higher point-per-game than 0.59.

If you’re just looking at the statistical profile of Michkov – a practice far too common with overseas prospects – his time with SKA-Neva would warrant being near the top of the draft board. The issues arose when you broke down the tape.

The shooting talent was evident. He was a shifty skater when engaged. The confidence in his puckhandling ability was obvious to a fault at times. Michkov’s offensive tools were all there. The problem was that Michkov was consistently on one extreme or the other.

Settle for the low-danger shot that you’re given. Push into pressure and take on three defenders at once. There was no happy medium or nuance to his game.

Michkov was playing as if he was in a video game. He was constantly taking questionable routes in the neutral zone, cheating for offense in the defensive zone, and finding comfort in stagnation in the offensive zone. His engagement at times was nearly non-existent. He was more than happy to get involved offensively but was a passenger in nearly all other aspects of the game.

While the tools were helping him produce, the habits he built could have been detrimental to his development as a young player. He needed a change.

Thankfully, that change came in the way of a loan to KHL Sochi. The toiling KHL club was in a prime position to give Michkov the ice time and opportunities he deserved. It took some adjustment time, but Michkov began to flourish once again.

Playing in the KHL against competition that was more suited to his talent level, Michkov did away with the selfish plays and hero hockey that often led to him skating into a crowd. He began to move with purpose and put himself into scoring positions in the offensive zone. The newest Sochi forward was playing within a system and beginning to play a more transferable brand of hockey.

“It was night and day. Michkov took the fresh start and ran with it,” mentioned the Western Conference scout.

Michkov’s production at the KHL level took off as well now that he wasn’t limited to under five minutes per game as he was with St. Petersburg. His 20 points in 30 games, 27 with Sochi, finished second all-time in KHL scoring by a draft-eligible player, trailing only Vladimir Tarasenko’s 24 points in 42 games.

"The offensive talent was on display all season long; I wasn't concerned about it," one European NHL scout told The Hockey News.

Michkov finished his season with Sochi, helping the KHL’s worst team to six wins in 27 games after he arrived. They had just three victories in 41 games before Michkov put on their jersey. He capped the KHL regular season with a five-point performance against the equally dreadful Kunlun Red Stars.

Michkov joined Stupino Jr., Sochi’s MHL affiliate, for the junior playoffs to finish his draft year. As expected, Michkov was one of the best players on the ice, putting up seven points in five games as the team was bounced from the playoffs pretty quickly. Although a longer run would have been great, Michkov’s finish in the KHL was what mattered.

The young Russian star had returned to form, showcasing the talent that made him one of the early challengers to Bedard for first overall. While Bedard has done nothing but improve his stock all season and solidified himself as the true No. 1 player, Michkov has returned to the top-three debate.

Whether the political climate, his contract or some other reason causes Michkov to fall in the draft, the question of whether the talent belongs at the top of the draft has been answered. The rise, the fall, and the resurgence have been sights to behold.

Michkov is among the best players in the 2023 NHL draft. On talent alone, he’s in the conversation for second overall. Where he ultimately lands in the NHL is the only question left to answer.