The Wild have followed in the footsteps of teams like the Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Islanders by putting big money into their core group. However, the team's lack of previous post-season success could make this a bad move down the line, writes Adam Proteau.
Minnesota Wild Players Celebrating on IceThe Minnesota Wild made news on the salary cap front Friday with the announcement of contract extensions for forwards Mats Zuccarello and Marcus Foligno. The 36-year-old Zuccarello took a pay cut for his extension, which will begin in the 2024-25 campaign and carry a cap hit of $4.125 million for the two seasons following this season. The 32-year-old Foligno got a raise from the $3.1-million salary for 2023-24, landing a four-year, $16-million contract from Wild GM Bill Guerin.
In some respects, we understand why Guerin wanted to lock up just about the entirety of his team for at least the next two seasons. You’re always hoping as a GM that the market will grow greatly and allow for cap relief for cap-ceiling teams, so offering more players more money probably makes sense to owners looking for long-term, consistent production that will prove to be a bargain as soon as possible.
But here’s the nagging thing about the Wild; they haven’t accomplished a whole lot in terms of Stanley Cup results, yet Guerin and the rest of Minnesota’s brass have decided to double down on the group. It would be one thing if the Wild were dominating opponents, but this is a franchise that has been first-round playoff fodder for the past four post-seasons and seven of the past eight years. The only year they didn’t get bounced in the first round during that span was in the 2018-19 season when they didn’t make the playoffs.
Not exactly a fearsome legend of a group, is it? Minnesota isn’t projected to be the top team in the Central Division once again this season, but Wild management has doubled down on the lineup, in the process giving them very little cap flexibility for the foreseeable future. With the Foligno and Zuccarello signings, the Wild have racked up more than $70.98 million in cap space for 2024-25, and they only have 14 players under contract for that cap space total. That means they’ll have $12.5 million in cap space to fill out the roster – and they’ll have to find appropriate raises for forwards Ryan Hartman and Brandon Duhaime, and defenseman Calen Addison. Oh, and they’ll also need to make a costly decision in goal, with Marc-Andre Fleury entering the final season of his contract; whether or not Fleury returns, Guerin will need to be on the lookout for goalie help, and that won’t come cheap.
Obviously, something needs to give on the cap front. Even a modest cap ceiling increase for 2024-25 leaves the Wild with little cap flexibility. And remember, this is a team that’s languished in cap hell with the costly buyouts for former stars Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. Some would suggest that the opportunity to have the breathing room cap space affords you is something that should not be squandered. But Guerin has chosen a page from the Lou Lamoriello school of cap management, and been loyal to the lineup that’s gotten him this far.
Indeed, Lamoriello’s New York Islanders are a model of loyalty, with 19 players signed in 2024-25, and only $987,500 in projected cap space. Like the Wild, the Isles have stayed internal from season-to-season, but also like the Wild, the Isles haven’t done much of anything in the playoffs. They’re both groups that, for some people, haven’'t yet earned a longer landing strip.
A team that has earned its tight cap situation is the Tampa Bay Lightning. They’ve got 15 players signed through 2024-25, and just $9.36 million in cap space. Because they’re multi-time Cup champions in their current competitive cycle, their fans understand why they have to bring in younger players on cheap contracts while allowing proven veterans to move on to financially-greener pastures. Even then, Bolts GM Julien Brisebois has to figure out how to retain 2024 UFA Steven Stamkos. It’s not going to be very easy at all.
This brings us back to the Wild. There are no Cup victories to use as a shield when things go wrong for you on the ice. Why not take more of a gamble with your non-core players and give yourself flexibility to cover off potential salary surges from your younger players?
This keep-them-all mentality probably plays well in the dressing room, but rarely does it translate into Cup wins. Maybe Guerin’s gamble pays off with a Western Conference championship or Cup win, but the odds aren’t in their favor. The Wild clearly have a talented roster, and should vie for a playoff spot, if only in the lower seeds of the post-season. But if this Minnesota team lays an egg, and you’ve spent away all your ability to change things next summer, would the gamble have been worth it? We think not.