Most of the NHL's top point-getters are only improving. Carol Schram ranks who could get the most and win the Art Ross Trophy.

Not to be anticlimactic, but the race for the NHL's Art Ross Trophy in the 2023-24 season could come down to Connor McDavid versus... well, Connor McDavid.

Throw out the rookie year for the Edmonton Oilers captain, when a broken collarbone limited him to just 45 games. In McDavid's seven subsequent seasons, he has captured five scoring titles. 

The last two campaigns for the 26-year-old have been his best yet, with his 153 points in in 2022-23 marking the most points from any player so far in the 2000s. That's 25 points better than anybody since Mario Lemieux posted 163 points with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 1995-96, while his teammate Jaromir Jagr logged 149.

Since McDavid's rookie season, the only two other players to snag Art Ross hardware were McDavid's teammate Leon Draisaitl in 2019-20 (110 points in 71 games, which pro-rates to 127 over an 82-game campaign) and Nikita Kucherov of the Tampa Bay Lightning (128 points in 2018-19).

How many points will it take to capture the Art Ross in the 2023-24 season? Scoring continued to rise last year, up from 3.14 to 3.18 goals per team per game. It doesn't sound like much. But over 1,312 regular-season games, with two teams playing each game, the total is nearly 105 additional goals.

What's crazy is that just seven of last season's top 10 point-getters covered that entire differential, with three goals to spare. Here's how many goals each of those players improved by compared to 2021-22:

1. Connor McDavid: up by 20 goals
3. David Pastrnak: up by 21 goals
5. Nathan MacKinnon: up by 10 goals
6. Jason Robertson: up by five goals
8. Mikko Rantanen: up by 19 goals
9. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: up by 26 goals
10. Elias Pettersson: up by seven goals

Total: 108 goals

The trend continues in the 11 to 20 range, where seven of the eight risers also hit personal career highs in goals. Sidney Crosby was the only exception.

11. Erik Karlsson: up by 15 goals
12. Jack Hughes: up by 17 goals
14. Brayden Point: up by 23 goals
15. Tage Thompson: up by nine goals
16. Sidney Crosby: up by two goals
18. Mika Zibanejad: up by 10 goals
19. Tim Stutzle: up by 19 goals
20. William Nylander: up by six goals

Total: 101 goals

This exercise is worthwhile because it's a good reminder of the large pool of players on the rise — many of whom are young and could have even more untapped upside.

In order to stay in this top echelon, players need to do more than just stay productive. They need to keep getting better. 

And if these 15 players alone added 209 goals to their collective total, there must be others who saw their goal and point totals drop. 

Whether it's due to injury or just a natural regression, some of the players mentioned above will also be unable to repeat the high standards they set for themselves last year.

As good as David Pastrnak is, for example, he could be a player who drops out of the top 10 this season without having Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci in the middle to get him the puck.

With all that in mind, here's a quick-and-dirty look at 10 names who could make a run at the Art Ross Trophy in 2023-24. Many names come from this list, but there are some sleepers, too.

1. Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers

As mentioned off the top, McDavid practically owns this trophy right now, and there's no reason to think the Oilers' record-setting power play is going to wilt this season with all the key players back for another round.

The talk around this team this fall is about getting into position to win the Stanley Cup, and the Oilers will go as far as McDavid and Draisaitl can take them. McDavid may not hit 153 points again, but as long as he stays healthy, he should come out back on top of the heap, points-wise.

2. Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers

See above. The two-headed beast that is Connor and Leon is slowly carving out a spot in history next to the NHL's other great dynamic duos, such as Gretzky and Messier, Lemieux and Jagr, Kane and Toews and Bossy and Trottier. What they're missing are the Cup rings.

3. Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche

No player in last season's top 20 played fewer games than MacKinnon (71). If the 28-year-old can stay healthy, he'll get a chance to build on his 111 points from last season. And if his teammates start the season with a chip on their shoulder about their early ouster from the playoffs, MacKinnon could make a real push for his first career Art Ross.

4. Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs

It's a little surreal to think of goal-scoring machine Auston Matthews as a bit of a sleeper pick. But even though his 85 points last season were the second-most of his career, the fact they came on the heels of his 106-point Hart Trophy campaign in 2021-22 made his output seem like a bit of a letdown.

Matthews did have some health issues, which limited him to 74 games and burdened him even when he was in the lineup. With his future in Toronto now secure for the next five seasons and a contract extension that will soon make him the NHL's highest-paid player, Matthews should be poised for a bounce-back year that could put him into the top ranks of the scoring race.

5. Jack Hughes, New Jersey Devils

As someone who had never previously played more than 61 games in a season, Jack Hughes proved he could withstand the NHL grind when he dressed for 78 games in 2022-23. And he made the most of that ice time, finishing with 99 points before adding another 11 points in 12 playoff games.

Still just 22, Hughes is now showing why he was the undisputed first overall pick at the 2019 NHL draft. He still has room to grow and isn't burdened by too much pressure on the well-assembled New Jersey Devils, where he doesn't always have to be the first offensive option.

6. Tage Thompson, Buffalo Sabres

It took a few years for Tage Thompson to really find his footing, but since he has, time has slowed down for him. He's only turning 26 in late October, so he also still could have room for improvement on a traditional NHL aging curve.

The fun part of Thompson's offensive prowess is his propensity to put up points in bunches. If he throws in just a couple more of his patented five- or six-point outings, he'll boost his full-season numbers into triple digits.

7. Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks

Soon to turn 25 and with one year remaining on his current contract, Elias Pettersson made it known he's at a career crossroads. And when he sets his mind to something: watch out. 

That's evidenced by the fact he got to 102 points despite all the upheaval in Vancouver last year, playing for two different coaches and missing the playoffs for the fourth time in his five seasons with the Canucks.

If Vancouver does take a step forward under Rick Tocchet this season, that should boost Pettersson's production. If things don't click and he decides he wants a change of scenery, expect him to showcase himself in the best possible light as he decides where to write his next chapter.

8. Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins

It's hard to believe, but of 951 skaters who suited up for an NHL game last season, Sid the Kid was the 34th oldest. Crosby may have turned 36 in August, but he played all 82 games for the first time since 2017-18, and his 93 points were good for 16th place in the Art Ross race.

Oh, and the Penguins saw their playoff streak snapped.

Much like MacKinnon and McDavid and Draisaitl, Crosby should be a man on a mission this fall. And while new GM Kyle Dubas's roster tweaks are partly in service of improved defensive structure, adding an offensive dynamo like Erik Karlsson could also help spike Pittsburgh's scoring numbers.

We know Crosby's work ethic and commitment are unmatched. And the adulation he's receiving from today's young stars is deserved. 

Crosby is three years younger than Joe Pavelski, and look what he's been able to accomplish in his late-career surge. It would fit the script if Crosby put on his superhero cape for one more dominant season before he starts thinking about skating off into the sunset.

9. Clayton Keller, Arizona Coyotes

This is a true sleeper pick. But Clayton Keller is already on the cusp of making history for his franchise. There's every reason to think he can take another step this year.

Last season — coming off a broken leg and playing through an odyssey that saw his team essentially homeless for the first two months of the season — Keller played all 82 games for Arizona and hit a career-high 86 points. That was good for 21st in the league, one point ahead of Auston Matthews. It also tied Keith Tkachuk for the most points ever in a single season since the Winnipeg Jets relocated to Arizona in 1996-97 — and they're the only two Coyotes players in the last 26 years even to break 80.

But while the club's arena saga drags on, a funny thing has happened. The Coyotes have populated their roster with more talent than we've seen at one time in decades. 

At last, Keller has someone to play with, whether that turns out to be rookie phenom Logan Cooley or crafty Jason Zucker on the power play. At 25, Keller could level up this season and, in the process, get hockey fans interested in what's happening in Arizona for the right reasons.

10. Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota Wild

After a 108-point campaign in 2021-22, I included Kaprizov in my top five Art Ross rankings last year. He still hit 40 goals, even though injuries limited him to just 67 games, and had to settle for 75 points.

It's easy to dismiss the Wild because they're in the throes of their salary cap hell right now after the buyouts of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise. But last season, GM Bill Guerin showed tremendous ingenuity in filling out his roster while remaining cap compliant. And while the Wild haven't quite been able to parlay their playoff appearances into a deep run, they have been at the dance in 10 of the last 11 years, which is no small feat in a 32-team league. 

Like Keller, Kaprizov is in a class of his own in Minnesota — the only player in franchise history to ever crack 100 points. With his preferred linemate Mats Zuccarello back for one more year, Kaprizov could deliver a bounce-back season that returns him to the very top of the 2023-24 scoring race.