Can Cale Makar win his second Norris Trophy in three seasons? Will Miro Heiskanen or Quinn Hughes capture the honor for the first time? Here's an early look from a 2023 Norris Trophy voter.

It's generally believed that NHL defensemen need years of experience to hone their craft — and that Norris Trophy voters tend to favor older defensemen because they look at players' full body of work, rather than their efforts for a single season.

In 2022-23, Erik Karlsson scored one for the thirtysomethings with his out-of-thin-air 101-point performance at age 32, in his 14th NHL season. He became the oldest Norris winner since Mark Giordano (then 35) in 2019.

Sure, there were questions about Karlsson's defense. But becoming just the sixth blueliner ever to hit triple digits in scoring was too monstrous of an achievement to brush aside. 

With two other Norris wins on his resume, from his 21- and 24-year-old seasons, Karlsson's win didn't fit the 'lifetime achievement narrative.' But it did buck recent trends.

In 2022, Cale Makar followed in Karlsson's footsteps by winning his first Norris in just his third NHL season, one year after fellow 23-year-old Adam Fox took home the trophy as an NHL sophomore in 2021.

After Karlsson's trade to Pittsburgh, where he'll share duties with Kris Letang, a repeat Norris performance seems highly unlikely. So this year's race is wide open, which should make for some entertaining debates throughout the season.

As a reminder, the James Norris Memorial Trophy is awarded "to the defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position." And while some fans like to believe that voters from the Professional Hockey Writers' Association tend to award the trophy to the highest-scoring blueliner, Karlsson's win last year was the first to fit that criteria since Brent Burns won the award with the San Jose Sharks in 2016-17, with 76 points in 82 games.

With all that in mind, here's a way-too-early look at five names that could appear prominently when the next batch of Norris Trophy ballots is tabulated next April. 

1. Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche

Despite missing 22 games during the second half of last season due to a variety of ailments, Cale Makar still finished third in voting because he was such a force when he did play. His 26:23 of average ice time was tops in the entire NHL, and his 1.10 points per game ranked him second only to Karlsson among defensemen.

At last week's Biosteel NHL Camp, Makar characterized his off-season as "a grind," as he dealt with "some ailing things from the end of last season that kind of lingered quite a bit longer than we wanted." But Colorado's earlier-than-expected first-round playoff elimination offered up some extra time to get back to 100 percent — and a healthy, determined Avalanche group should be a menace on the ice. 

No player has won back-to-back Norris Trophies since Nicklas Lidstrom took home three in a row from 2006 to 2008. If Makar claims the second award of his career in 2024, after just a one-year gap, he'd be the quickest player to repeat since Lidstrom.

Karlsson logged three seasons between his first two wins in 2012 and 2015. Duncan Keith's trophies came four years apart, in 2010 and 2014.

2. Miro Heiskanen, Dallas Stars

Another impressive young gun on the back end, Miro Heiskanen saw his average ice time last season climb to 25:29 and his points more than double, from 36 to 73. 

Already an elite defensive player, Heiskanen has now added the scoring that attracts eyeballs without making sacrifices in his own zone. He also demonstrated his toughness last spring when he didn't miss a game despite suffering a nasty cut on his cheek after taking a puck to the face.

Stars players refer to Heiskanen as their team's best player as a matter of course. If Dallas continues as one of the top contenders in the West this season, his Norris Trophy buzz should grow accordingly.

3. Adam Fox, New York Rangers

Though Gerard Gallant and David Quinn are not exactly known as defense-first coaches, that didn't stop Adam Fox from quickly establishing himself as one of the top defenders in the NHL. 

His Norris win in 2021 came in the shortened 56-game season, when all games were played within divisions. So Fox only tested himself against seven different squads that year.

But with the schedule grid now back to normal, Fox snagged second place in the 2023 Norris balloting while playing all 82 games, posting 72 points and blocking more than 100 shots for the third straight year.

This fall, he'll be toiling under Peter Laviolette — who was brought onto Broadway specifically to incorporate his trademark defensive touch on a good Rangers team that has had a tendency to play too loose.

That should be a terrific setting to allow Fox to raise his already strong game to yet another level.

4. Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks

When all is said and done, the impact of the three Hughes brothers collectively may turn out to be greater than the individual achievements of any one.

But that's not to say there won't be individual achievements. Youngest brother Luke Hughes showed up as a fully formed NHL defenseman when he joined the New Jersey Devils late last season, while his teammate Jack was knocking at the door of 100 points at just 21 years old.

Out in Vancouver, oldest brother Quinn has already set — then broken — Canucks franchise records for most points by a defenseman, following up his 68-point season in 2021-22 with 76 points last year. He's the prototype for the modern blueliner who can succeed with superb skating and heady hockey sense, even if he isn't the biggest guy on the ice. 

What's even more impressive is that Quinn's upward trajectory has remained steady through a tumultuous period in Vancouver under multiple coaches. He reached a new high with 25:40 of average ice time last season and quickly earned the respect of new bench boss Rick Tocchet, who has said he believes Hughes has the right stuff to potentially take over as Vancouver's next captain. 

After a ninth-place finish in Norris voting last season, Hughes' stock could rise as he takes a bigger leadership role — especially if the Canucks can realize some of the potential they teased with their improved play after Tocchet took over last season. 

Turning 24 in October, this could be the year Quinn Hughes follows in Jack's footsteps and becomes a true NHL star.

5. Brent Burns, Carolina Hurricanes

Though the NHL's youth movement on the blueline is in full swing, it would be wrong not to keep one greybeard in the mix. The iconic nature of Brent Burns's facial mane certainly doesn't hurt his odds of inclusion in this category

But a man does not win a Norris by beard alone. Burns is a deserving part of this conversation because his first season with the Carolina Hurricanes was a turn-back-the-clock affair that saw him bounce back to 61 points while playing every game for the ninth straight season.

Now at 761 consecutive games, Burns currently sits second on the NHL's active ironman list behind Phil Kessel — and no one else is close. But Norris candidacy is about quality more than quantity. Burns is in a great situation on a defensively responsible squad with a deep blueline where he doesn't need to shoulder the full load. 

There's every reason to believe that one of the NHL's most colorful characters should deliver another standout season — even at the ripe old age of 38.