The Vegas Golden Knights are struggling with weird inconsistency lately but still sit atop the Pacific Division. Can they make a deep playoff run?
By most metrics, the Vegas Golden Knights are a curious team this season. They’re 6-4-0 int their last 10 games, yet they’re relatively comfortable on top of the Pacific Division.
The Golden Knights are five points ahead of the second-place Los Angeles Kings, with one game in hand on the Kings. They're the best road team in the league (14-2-1) but they have a shoddy home record (10-9-0) and a 24-11-1 overall mark. And they're the league's second-best shootout team (3-0).
They've cooled off from their hot start to the year, and they're thoroughly inconsistent, which makes this writer skeptical of a deep playoff run for them.
The Golden Knights’ record so far this season is fairly balanced: five of their road wins have come against good teams (LA, Seattle, Toronto, Boston and Winnipeg), and four of their home losses came against weaker teams (St. Louis, San Jose, Vancouver and Buffalo).
But the reason why they’re atop the Central is they've really taken care of business against opponents they ought to beat. They're 15-5 with wins over Chicago (twice), Anaheim, San Jose (twice), Washington, Ottawa, Montreal, St. Louis (twice), Arizona (twice), Vancouver, Columbus and Buffalo. The schedule from here on is going to be significantly tougher on Vegas, but they're put themselves in a position to withstand a losing streak or two.
The key for the Golden Knights now is to not lose so much in regulation. Ten of their 11 losses came in 60 minutes, and that needs to improve the rest of the way.
Things have been tougher for them with injuries and an unfortunate family emergency, respectively, to star center Jack Eichel and top defenseman Alex Pietrangelo. While nobody wishes for these situations, and players must get as much time as they need to recover or be there for their family, few NHL teams have had the chance to ice an ideal lineup.
Unfortunately for the Golden Knights, as per Cap Friendly, they’re completely out of salary cap space at the moment. They’re projected to have approximately $4.6 million in space by the league’s March 3 trade deadline, and Vegas GM Kelly McCrimmon is likely to spend it.
A rental player such as Vancouver forward Bo Horvat is rumored to be a trade target for the Golden Knights. Horvat’s $5.5-million contract means that Vancouver would have to retain some salary, but if there’s enough of a will, there’s definitely a way to make a Horvat trade feasible.
McCrimmon also could choose to use his cap space to acquire defensive help.
When Theodore is healthy, Vegas has got a solid top-four group of blueliners (including Pietrangelo, Alec Martinez and Brayden McNabb), but they’re best-advised to add help and internal competition for their final two defensive slots.
Depth inevitably becomes a difference-maker in the Stanley Cup playoffs, and when Eichel returns to action, the Golden Knights’ forwards will get a boost the doesn’t cost them anything. Improving their defense shouldn’t be a shock, as seven of their 11 losses have seen them surrender four goals or more. They need to be a tighter unit in their own zone, and they may need to turn to the trade market to address the issue.
Vegas has received good goaltending this year from Logan Thompson (.914 save percentage, 2.66 goals-against average) and Adin Hill (.903 SP, 2.66 GAA), and given the scarcity of available quality netminders, it’s difficult to envision the Golden Knights trading for goaltending help. It’s the two areas up front from the goaltender that are more likely to be addressed by McCrimmon.
One way or another, Vegas is going to be in the playoff mix in the weaker Pacific. But they’re probably not going to go far in the post-season if they remain this Jekyll-and-Hyde-y. They need much more balance and consistency, and if they don’t get it, they’re going to be first-round fodder this spring.