THN.com/podcast. From THN American Pipeline: Previewing the NCAA Playoff Picture and Jets Prospects Matt Boldy. [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MTk1MjA1NjIzOTIxNTE4MzA2/usatsi_19626042.jpg] Matt Boldy. The Minnesota Wild are in a precarious position. This season, they have $12.7 million in dead cap because of buyouts to Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. That would be a problem for anyone, but it gets worse. For two seasons after this one, the Wild will have $14.7 million in dead cap space because of those contract buyouts. In a league where the only cap relief is through long-term injured reserve (LTIR), it is tough to compete under those circumstances. Every team has a bad contract or two. It is better to have a bad contract but still have the roster player than to have the gargantuan cap charge without the player contributing at all. Minnesota’s biggest issue: they aren’t a bottom feeder. They’re a pretty good team despite the dead cap. The question becomes, what is the path to remain competitive over the next two seasons when 20 percent of the allotted cap space is used on players who are not playing? The most obvious answer is Kirill Kaprizov. We know this. What we also know is teams that are a one-man show are not successful. Enter Matt Boldy. Drafted 12th overall in 2019, the Milford, Mass. native is a key piece of the Wild’s present and future. Earlier this season, he signed a seven-year contract extension that will pay him $7 million per season, a contract like the ones signed by Kyle Connor in 2019 (seven years, $50M) and William Nylander (six years, $45M) in 2018. Both players had a career points-per-game of 0.72 when they signed their contracts, slightly lower than Boldy’s 0.74 pace in 100 fewer games. Both Connor and Nylander are worth more than their contracts currently pay them, something the Wild hope Boldy can replicate. Boldy is less impactful offensively than Connor and Nylander were at the same age and is experiencing the typical sophomore scoring slump this year. However, he’s in the 95th percentile of defensive impact this season, a level that far exceeds Connor and Nylander at the same age and currently. Despite not providing the even strength offense typical of a top-six player, he’s been Minnesota’s best defensive forward by a wide margin, a rare feat for a 22-year-old winger. There are signs that Boldy will produce at 5-on-5. Coach Dean Evason has given him a long leash for a young player, allowing him to play through dry spells and make mistakes without losing his spot in the top six or the lineup. Boldy has the second-highest individual 5-on-5 expected goals created on Minnesota, behind Kaprizov. He’s second in individual scoring chances and third in individual high-danger chances created. He’s getting his chances. High-end players usually have a shooting percentage of around 13 percent, which Boldy had in his first season. This year? It’s cratered to 8.7 percent. If Boldy’s shooting percentage this year was 13 percent, he would have 26 goals this season. Players have up-and-down seasons, but ultimately, their true performance regresses to the mean. Given the volume of chances Boldy creates in dangerous areas, it is fair to believe he will be a career 13 percent shooter or somewhere close to that. If Boldy can become a 30-goal scorer, Minnesota will be able to depend on him to provide the scoring punch behind Kaprizov. If that happens, Minnesota can have Kaprizov, Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek drive their own lines, something they will need if they are to remain competitive over the next two years. The other thing the Wild will need is young players stepping up and producing on their entry-level contracts. Extracting value from players on ELCs is key to success in the NHL, particularly in the current environment of a flat cap. GM Bill Guerin has filled the roster out for the end of this season with expiring contracts, and the writing is on the wall that pending UFAs are unlikely to be re-signed. This signals that Minnesota intends to sign veterans to cheap contracts in the off-season and hopefully, give a few young players a chance to make the team. With that in mind, there are a few targets to take those roster spots. Brock Faber, a standout defenseman at the University of Minnesota (acquired in the Kevin Fiala trade), looks ready to step into the NHL. He is expected to sign with the Wild at the conclusion of his NCAA season. Add him to Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon, Jacob Middleton, Alex Goligoski and Calen Addison, and he’ll be able to play sheltered minutes on a valuable contract. It is fair to believe one of Goligoski or Middleton may not be around next season, given the cap situation. However, Minnesota has Ryan O’Rourke and Daemon Hunt in AHL Iowa who continue to develop and will be able to provide call-up spot duty. The Wild have solid pieces on the back end that should allow them to shelter some of their young D as they find their footing in the NHL. In speaking with a few scouts around the league, no one will be surprised if Faber is an impact defenseman for them as soon as next year. Up front, Marco Rossi and Sammy Walker have been key pieces for Iowa in the AHL this year, both averaging nearly a point per game. There are roles to be filled in the middle-six next season. Walker and Rossi are capable and should be given a similar leash to Boldy to find their way. Veterans such as Eriksson Ek and Marcus Foligno can help shelter the two youngsters, providing defensive value and allowing the rookies to acclimate without getting shelled. Given that the Wild will probably lose Marcus Johansson and one of Frederick Gaudreau or Sam Steel, who have earned raises, it will be up to the younger players to come in and provide that value on a minimum salary. Looking further down the line, Minnesota sets up to take advantage of ELCs because of their drafting prowess, led by director of amateur scouting Judd Brackett. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the 2024-2025 edition of the Wild boasts a lineup with Rossi, Walker, Adam Beckman, Liam Ohgren, Danila Yurov, Carson Lambos and Jesper Wallstedt playing important roles while on their entry-level contracts. There are always pleasant surprises as well, and players like Caeden Bankier, Hunt and O’Rourke may find themselves in that equation. All of those players were drafted and developed by the Wild. The advantage of successfully drafting and developing players is that when you’re in a cap crunch, those players are likely to provide impact well above their pay grade, the hallmark of any competitive team. There is no getting out of this cap crunch. No level of cap gymnastics removes nearly $15 million in dead cap space over the next two seasons. However, the blow of that can and should be lessened by the impact of Minnesota’s young players, led by Matt Boldy. If Minnesota is to remain in the playoff hunt over the next few years, it will be because the club has drafted and developed key players who will have an impact far greater than its salary would indicate. The Wild don’t deserve credit for being in this cap crunch, but Brackett and his scouting staff deserve credit for providing a potential avenue for the club to be competitive over the next few seasons. Regardless of the result, Minnesota will be a fun team to watch because Kaprizov will be surrounded by talented young players who may be key pieces for the franchise moving forward.
