One of the most important traits for an NHL analyst and a scout to have is the ability to self-reflect. It’s easy to sit on what you believe and just continue to work off that basis each year, but the best in the business take a look back after a few years and ask questions about why your evaluation went wrong or where you were sticking your neck out a bit but ended up being right. Every year, as I approach my final NHL draft ranking [https://thehockeynews.com/news/latest-news/2025-nhl-draft-rankings-ferraris-post-lottery-top-64] for the season, I like to do a quick look back at the draft from a few years prior to refresh myself on what I’ve learned over the years. Tony Ferarri discusses the lessons he has learned over his years of covering NHL draft prospects. In years past, one of the most important lessons I’ve come away with is that I need to trust what I see and not listen to others in the industry – even if they are people I trust and respect. When you’ve put in the work and dedicated thousands of hours over the years to your craft, you need to trust your evaluations. Now that we are five years out from the 2020 NHL draft [https://archive.thehockeynews.com/issue/479434], we have a pretty good picture of what the results of the class look like. That also means that when we look back on that draft, we can evaluate our own work and learn a thing or two. Let’s look at a few of the most important lessons from my own work. LESSON NO. 1: QMJHL TO THE NHL IS AS TOUGH AS IT GETS The first overall pick in 2020 was Alexis Lafreniere [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/new-york-rangers/latest-news/conflicting-reports-regarding-alexis-lafreniere-s-trade-status-creating-more-questions-and-confusion], a player who was nearly unanimously ranked first on draft boards publicly. He put up massive numbers, leading the QMJHL [https://thehockeynews.com/qmjhl] in scoring with 112 points in 52 games as the year was cut short because of COVID. He was a key piece to Canada’s world junior squad that year as well. On paper, everything screamed first overall. Alexis Lafreniere (Sam Navarro-Imagn Images) [https://deweb-519a7.b-cdn.net/post-images/c144ee84-65aa-47e2-8210-01a654fbd960.jpeg] Alexis Lafreniere (Sam Navarro-Imagn Images) The issue with the QMJHL is that it’s a league with soft-pressure defensive units, and low-paced attacking games work very well. While there is some run-and-gun, it’s because the defensive play is subpar across the league. Lafreniere was the embodiment of many of the traits that excel in the QMJHL. He was the best version of many of those traits. It’s why he scored the lights out but had some issues keeping up and translating his game at the NHL level, where the game is incredibly high-paced. That leads me directly into my next lesson… LESSON NO. 2: PACE IS KING The NHL is the fastest league with the strongest players who all just so happen to have the most skill. The pace at which the game is played is ridiculous. One thing you really realize when you go back and forth between watching the NHL and junior hockey or European [https://thehockeynews.com/international] pro hockey is that the games are simply played at different speeds. There are players in Europe who are in the Swedish League or KHL that have the skill level and the tools to play at the NHL level but they just don’t play at a high-enough pace. They want to slow the game down. The hockey played in Finland, at both the pro and junior levels, is where it’s most notable. LESSON NO. 3: THEY ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE Players develop, but they generally don’t change in drastic ways. The player you see in their draft year is generally the type of player you’re going to get from a stylistic point of view. They may mature a bit defensively or they may learn to use their size a bit more effectively, a player like Matthew Knies [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/toronto-maple-leafs/latest-news/what-s-the-ideal-contract-for-matthew-knies-and-the-maple-leafs] is an excellent example of that. For the most part though, when a player is a shooter who generally opts to take his shots from high in the zone or on the outside, that’s who they are going to be at the NHL level. When a player isn’t really much of a playmaker and it’s simply because they don’t scan the ice and look for a passing option, they aren’t going to magically start scanning when the speed and physicality are ramped up at the next level. Several players in this draft class were very good at one or two traits – elite even at those traits – but they had glaring holes that many of us, including myself, ignored. Alexander Holtz was No. 6 on my board and quite high up on other analysts' rankings as well, but in hindsight, he should have been much lower. Jacob Perreault, Topi Niemela and Jan Mysak were other names that were higher up on my board, but when looking back, I understood exactly where I went wrong in their evaluations. LESSON NO. 4: 'IF THEY FILL OUT THEIR FRAME' IS A BIG 'IF' A player I absolutely loved during the 2020 draft season was Dmitry Ovchinnikov. He tore up the Russian junior circuit that season, and he had so many of the tools I looked for in a player. He was lightning quick, he put defenders on their heels, he showed off some really intriguing puck handling and he was a dual threat scorer at the level. He was a transition machine, and he showed some very steady defensive decision making. There was so much to like, but there was one massive area of issue. Ovchinnikov was very thin and lanky. Although he’s been listed at 5-foot-11 since his draft year, he’s never been listed above 165 pounds, and that has always seemed generous. Ovchinnikov’s one full season in North America was riddled by injuries and inconsistencies, and he was ultimately back in Russia after just 21 games. There’s been no word of the soon-to-be 23-year-old coming back to North America. Ovchinnikov was just one example of players who didn’t fill out or bulk up. He was a glaring example of that for me personally because I did value what he brought so much. I was able to temper some of my expectations, ultimately ranking him in the 80s, but there was always hope that he’d be more. Alexander Pashin, Anton Johannesson and Niemela are other examples, just from this draft class. The lesson is that while you can certainly hope that a player bulks up, it’s far from a guarantee. LESSON NO. 5: POINTS AREN'T EVERYTHING Just because a player isn’t blowing the doors off statistically, it doesn’t mean he isn’t good. Every single time I watched Lucas Raymond, I came away thinking that his processing, playstyle and flashes of brilliance were among the best in the draft class. I had him ranked third all season and looking back at my notes, I generally came away from my viewings more positive than any other player, including Lafreniere and Quinton Byfield. When a player is doing everything you want to see and just not getting rewarded, especially against men at the pro level, you should give them more grace. Raymond was a player I had a long leash for because almost every game note I made was something along the lines of, “He easily could have had two points in this game.” Raymond has become a legitimate star in the NHL, and he is arguably the Detroit Red Wings [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/detroit-red-wings]’ best player. His game hasn’t changed much stylistically, but now that he’s playing bigger minutes with better players and has matured a bit physically, the results are there. Points are important, but they aren’t the be all and end all of player evaluation. Get the latest news and trending stories by following The Hockey News on Google News [https://news.google.com/publications/CAAqBwgKMK-q0gsw7sXpAw?hl=en-CA&gl=CA&ceid=CA%3Aen] and by subscribing to The Hockey News newsletter here [http://eepurl.com/i7OC4I]. And share your thoughts by commenting below the article on THN.com.
