THN.com/podcast. From The Hockey News Podcast: NHL Playoffs and Team Changes Begin Igor Shesterkin [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MTk3NDU5MzU1Mzk2NzQ0MTk4/usatsi_20435884.jpg] Igor Shesterkin If you thought the fantasy season was over, think again. Not only are playoff pools underway, but it’s also never too early to look forward to the next season. Goalies were a minefield this season, and that’s probably an understatement. Of the top five goalies ranked by Yahoo going into the season, only Ilya Sorokin and Connor Hellebuyck lived up to expectations. Even Igor Shesterkin had a pretty tough stretch, and though he finished with one more win than last season, his goals-against average ballooned while his save percentage dipped. Will next year prove to be the same? A league-wide surge in offensive efficiency certainly will make those who question the value of fantasy goalies even less inclined to draft them in the early rounds. Or perhaps defensive systems and goaltending techniques will get better, and more game tape will be available for goalies to study to help them gain the extra edge. The key when it comes to fantasy goalies is balancing their ability and the strength of their team. A good goalie on a bad team can only do so much and in most cases lose a lot of games despite a high save percentage. John Gibson is the most extreme of this example, and a similar rule applies to Carter Hart. A mediocre goalie on a good team, however, means they don’t have the pressure of having to steal games and in most cases receive good goal support to lock in wins. For that, look no further than the Kraken’s goalies this season. While significant changes could occur in the off-season, here’s an early look at next year’s top 10 fantasy goalies for 2023-24. 1. IGOR SHESTERKIN, NEW YORK RANGERS (37-13-8, .916 SP, 2.48 GAA) It remains to be seen what will happen with impending UFAs Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane, but the Rangers were doing fine even without them. Their core is aging – Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Vincent Trocheck and Jacob Trouba will all be at least 30 next season – but there’s still a young group that can step up. Alexis Lafreniere and K’Andre Miller will need new contracts, and it’s doubtful either will leave; the Rangers need youth, and they’re cost-controlled to help keep the cap manageable. Shesterkin was not close to winning the Vezina last season, and he’s not the consensus top choice, but he’s certainly still a top-five goalie on a very good team and gets to play a ton. Over the past three seasons, he ranks sixth in starts (141) and fifth in total minutes played (8,548 minutes). 2. ANDREI VASILEVSKIY, TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (34-22-4, .915 SP, 2.65 GAA) Regardless of how the Lightning fare in the playoffs, and even though Vasilevskiy will not lead the league in wins for a sixth straight season, he remains a clear-cut top-five goalie based on reputation, ability and past history. A quick playoff exit might actually be beneficial, as it will give the Lightning a much-needed breather. Heading into this post-season, Vasilevskiy has played 46 playoff games over the last three years, more than double the next-highest total (Carey Price, 22 games), and it’s a fair argument that the Lightning just ran out of gas after two Cups and three trips to the finals. Though a few of their key players are entering their mid-30s (Steven Stamkos turns 34 next February, Victor Hedman will be 33 in December), Nikita Kucherov (29), Brayden Point (27) and Mikhail Sergachev (24) are still in their prime. Until the Lightning crash, there’s no reason to discard Vasilevskiy from the top of the heap. 3. JAKE OETTINGER, DALLAS STARS (37-11-11, .919 SP, 2.37 GAA) Fatigue was a factor, and that’s something that should improve in the coming seasons. Oettinger never played more than 38 games at Boston U or in the AHL, but over the past two seasons (min. 50 GP), he has amassed 107 starts (ninth), 67 wins (fourth), .917 SP (sixth) and 2.44 GAA (seventh). The Stars have some roster decisions to make, but their top line will stay intact for at least another season, and Miro Heiskanen is a Norris-level defenseman. Their downside is protected by some intriguing young players, including Calder candidate Wyatt Johnston, Ty Dellandrea, top prospect Logan Stankoven, and Nils Lundkvist and Thomas Harley on the back end. 4. ALEXANDAR GEORGIEV, COLORADO AVALANCHE (40-16-6, .919 SP, 2.53 GAA) The Avs’ young core ensures they’ll be very competitive for the foreseeable future, and even though Georgiev isn’t considered an elite goalie, playing on a very good team ensures his fantasy value stays high. In his first full season as a starter, he won a league-high 40 games and posted career-best numbers across the board. Given how volatile goaltending can be from season to season, proving it was no fluke will be Georgiev’s toughest challenge. At worst, Georgiev should be approached with cautious optimism, but the rewards are potentially great. 5. ILYA SOROKIN, NEW YORK ISLANDERS (31-22-7, .924 SP, 2.34 GAA) For my money, Sorokin is the best goalie in the league, but his fantasy upside is capped because the Isles aren’t a top-tier team. A full season of Mathew Barzal with Bo Horvat might change that, but much of their current core is aging, and they’ll also need to count on bounce-back seasons from Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech to be an elite defensive pair. They’re light on elite talent and even lighter in the pipeline, and as a capped-out team, there will be limited ways in which they can improve their roster. The wins will be tough to come by in the competitive Metro, but Sorokin will give the Isles a chance every night, and his peripherals will be second to none. 6. LINUS ULLMARK, BOSTON BRUINS (40-6-1, .938 SP, 1.89 GAA) The presence of Jeremy Swayman dampens Ullmark’s fantasy value, but make no mistake, the Bruins have the best tandem in the league. It will be the biggest snub since Shakespeare in Love if they don’t express post the Vezina to Ullmark right now. But Ullmark’s workload probably caps out at 50 games or so, and it’s not realistic to expect him to have another record-setting season again. It’s just too difficult; in the cap era, only Martin Brodeur has managed to win the Vezina in back-to-back seasons, with Tim Thomas coming a close second, winning the award twice in three seasons. For goalies, quantity is still important because certain categories, such as saves, depend a lot on playing time. Fantasy managers will have to weigh quantity versus quality when it comes to Ullmark, depending on their league settings. 7. STUART SKINNER, EDMONTON OILERS (29-14-5, .914 SP, 2.75 GAA) Perhaps it wasn’t surprising that Skinner was a good goalie, and more so that he took over the starting job from Jack Campbell so quickly. Skinner’s 29 wins set a new franchise record for wins by a rookie, which was previously set by Grant Fuhr, and aside from a month here and there where Campbell gets hot, Skinner’s the Oilers’ goalie of the future. The benefit of playing on a team led by Connor McDavid is that Skinner doesn’t have to be lights-out good – the goal support is going to be elite, and that will allow Skinner to pile up the wins. The addition of Mattias Ekholm to round out their defense shouldn’t be understated. 8. CONNOR HELLEBUYCK, WINNIPEG JETS (37-25-2, .920 SP, 2.49 GAA) Excellent goalie on a potentially mediocre team. A second-half meltdown puts the Jets at a crossroads; Pierre-Luc Dubois’ heart seems set on Montreal, and Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele seem ready to move on with only one season left on their contracts. There’s a chance the Jets get a jumpstart on tearing things down rather than playing contract extension hot potato with their players’ agents, and Rick Bowness fails to replicate his defensive masterclass. The upside isn’t quite there for Hellebuyck, despite his inhuman efforts most nights. What you do get, however, is a ton of saves and a good save percentage. 9. ILYA SAMSONOV, TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS (27-10-5, .919 SP, 2.33 GAA) Samsonov’s play this season proved that he can be a reliable starter, and he ranked 10th in total GSAA at 5-on-5 even though only three goalies ahead of him played fewer games. Who knows what the Leafs will do if they exit early in the first round again, but if Kyle Dubas is still at the helm, he’d know that goaltending wasn’t really the problem in the regular season. What was most impressive was how Samsonov handled both the rotation with Matt Muray and being pressed into action when the Leafs didn’t have any bodies. In a white-hot market, Samsonov showed he could shoulder the pressure, and the Leafs’ key players have also become much more well-rounded than in past seasons. 10. THATCHER DEMKO, VANCOUVER CANUCKS (14-14-4, .901 SP, 3.16 GAA) Demko’s body of work last season was a tale of two stories. The beginning of the season was a disaster; the defense in front of him was non-existent, and he seemed hampered by off-season surgery that limited his effectiveness. But upon his return, he showed elite chops and finished on a high note with four goals allowed and a shutout in his last three starts. Nobody should put much stock in their late-season run under Rick Tocchet, but the coaching change at least confirmed the Canucks have legit superstars, and Demko is a top-tier goalie. Surround them with better depth, especially on defense, and this team could surprise. Already there’s talk the Canucks will be better prepared this summer, and if they can avoid injuries, there’s no reason why Demko can’t return to his all-star performance from a season ago. With Demko’s big workload and upside, he has the inside track to land himself inside the top 10. HONORABLE MENTIONS: JUUSE SAROS, NASHVILLE PREDATORS Saves. A lot of saves. The Preds will be buried next season, though it’ll be interesting to see if they can keep counting on Tommy Novak and Cody Glass as top-six centers. Saros is a brilliant goalie stuck on a team that’s going through a rebuild. Excellent goalie on a potentially lottery-bound team. VITEK VANECEK, NEW JERSEY DEVILS The Devils are gonna be really good for a really long time. Vanecek was very good for long stretches but also looked miserable during others. This is an above-average goalie on a very good team type of scenario, and I’m not convinced Vanecek is their best long-term solution in net.
