THN.com/podcast. From The Hockey News Podcast: Is the Jack Adams Award Curse Back? Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MTk2NzE0MTc3NzY1NTgxODQy/usatsi_20287113.jpg] Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman Last season, there was little doubt by the final week which teams would claim the NHL division titles. It’s wide open this season save for the Atlantic. The top two teams in the other three divisions are separated by two points or less. Aside from the Bruins’ dominance, it’s also been a little bizarre this past week. The Panthers are unbeaten in regulation in seven straight? They lost to the Flyers. The Coyotes will be cannon fodder in the West? They’re 6-1-1 against them over the past two weeks. The Canucks stumble without Bo Horvat and a bad defense? They’ve lost only three times in March, all by one-goal margins. The East has dominated for much of the regular season, but that’s changed, too, with the Knights (8-2-0 in their past 10), Oilers (8-2-0), Avalanche (7-2-1) and Kings (8-0-2) surging up the standings. Here’s this week’s THN power rankings. (All fancy stats are 5-on-5 and courtesy naturalstattrick.com. CF% stands for Corsi For Percentage [http://www.naturalstattrick.com/glossary.php?teams] and xGF% represents Expected Goals For Percentage.) 1. Boston Bruins (54-11-5, +114. CF% league rank: 15, xGF% league rank: 7) There was an older lady named Joyce at my university cafeteria who would take breakfast orders from a lineup as many as 10 students deep all in a row. If you weren’t paying attention and called out your order promptly, she’d glare and burn a hole through your soul. The seconds you took to realize she was waiting on your order felt worse than being caught with your pants down on stage. She was efficient and never screwed up – a literal machine. Joyce is the Bruins, and the rest of the teams in the league have their pants down. 2. Vegas Golden Knights (44-21-6, +35. CF%: 23, xGF%: 16) Since snapping their four-game losing streak to finish January, the Knights are 15-3-2 and tied with the Bruins for the best points percentage in the league. Bruce Cassidy has done a wonderful job, and none of the five goalies they’ve used this season have a save percentage lower than .906. 3. Toronto Maple Leafs (42-19-9, +45. CF%: 17, xGF%: 9) With 12 games to go, we’re still not really clear on who the Game 1 starter will be. Years from now, Kyle Dubas’ Leafs might be Exhibit A on why or why not having a reliable elite goalie matters. 4. Carolina Hurricanes (46-15-8, +53. CF%: 1, xGF%: 1) A win against the Rangers stems the bleeding, but there is some cause for concern. None of their goalies have a save percentage higher than .909 (Pyotr Kochetkov), and Jesperi Kotkaniemi is outscoring everyone on the team not named Martin Necas in March. 5. New York Rangers (41-20-10, +47. CF%: 19, xGF%: 20) It took a minute, but they’ve found their groove going 6-1-1, including consecutive wins against the rival Pens, followed up with a 7-0 shellacking of the Preds. After a tough February, Igor Shesterkin has a .927 SP and 2.22 GAA in March and allowed only one power-play goal. 6. Edmonton Oilers (40-23-8, +40. CF%: 10, xGF%: 8) They’re catching fire at the right time, with only two losses in March, but in both games, they managed to score at least four goals. That’s a good sign that they can beat anybody as long as their goaltending is better than average. The Oilers are third in the Pacific but have the second-best goal differential in the West, which is usually a better indicator of team strength than their record. 7. Colorado Avalanche (41-22-6, +40. CF%: 8, xGF%: 13) That’s now six wins in a row for the Avs, and the truth is, we never should’ve counted them out [https://thehockeynews.com/news/the-colorado-avalanche-arent-letting-injuries-keep-them-down] even though they’ve been wiped by injuries all season. They’re two points out of the top spot in the Central with two games in hand on the Stars and Wild. 8. New Jersey Devils (45-18-8, +54. CF%: 4, xGF%: 2) A win against the Lightning on the road after losing twice at home was a good revenge win and showed good resilience. Problem: they’ve still lost four of their past five and dropped out of the top five in the power rankings for the first time in 11 weeks. 9. Los Angeles Kings (41-20-10, +18. CF%: 5, xGF%: 6) If their goaltending holds, they can be a terrifying team in the playoffs, and remember, they came within one game of upsetting the Oilers last season. Joonas Korpisalo and Pheonix Copley have a good rhythm going and have not lost in regulation in all of March. 10. Minnesota Wild (41-22-8, +20. CF%: 18, xGF%: 15) Good to see that their goaltending blowups against the Blues and Bruins were just temporary. The line of Matt Boldy – Joel Eriksson Ek – Marcus Johansson have combined for nine goals in six games in Kirill Kaprizov’s absence. 11. Seattle Kraken (39-24-7, +18. CF%: 6, xGF%: 17) They have not won in regulation in two weeks, but after losing three straight, maybe they’re turning it around again. None of their goalies have a save percentage higher than .892 and a GAA lower than 3.02. It’s actually pretty amazing, considering Jared McCann is the only player to have scored more than 30 goals, though they have 13 (!) players who have scored double-digit goal totals. 12. Dallas Stars (38-19-14, +48. CF%: 12, xGF%: 12) Not sure what’s gotten into Jake Oettinger, but despite his six wins in March, he ranks 52nd in save percentage and 53rd in GAA. Side note: Miro Heiskanen is having a breakout season nobody’s talking about and sits tied-seventh in scoring among defensemen in total points and points per game. 13. Tampa Bay Lightning (42-24-6, +29. CF%: 11, xGF%: 10) The more I watch, the more I’m convinced they may not get past the opening round. Their inconsistency has been perplexing, though they have shown they can flip the switch in April. Still, over the past three seasons, the Lightning have played 46 playoff games, 16 more than the second-place Avs. That’s got to catch up to them at some point. 14. New York Islanders (37-27-8, +17. CF%: 21, xGF%: 22) The math keeps saying no, but the Isles keep making it work. Brock Nelson’s injury status may end up making or breaking their season. And enough about Bo Horvat’s dip on offense – he’s averaging close to 22 minutes per game for the Isles in a matchup role, and they wouldn’t be here without him. 15. Florida Panthers (36-28-7, +9. CF%: 3, xGF%: 4) The Panthers are your favorite fast food joint: it looks and tastes great, but at the end of the day, it makes your tummy feel all wrong. The talent in there on paper, but watching them play can make any coach hurl. With a chance to put themselves three points ahead of the Pens with a game in hand, they lost to the Flyers and now face the Leafs and Rangers in three of their next four games. They still have not won more than three games in a row this season. 16. Winnipeg Jets (40-29-3, +14. CF%: 14, xGF%: 18) Bad team or bad luck? Since the start of their slump on Feb. 16, the Jets rank 26th in PDO. Before that, they ranked ninth. Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Kyle Connor and Josh Morrissey are a combined minus-55 (!) during that span, with Connor shooting five percent and Pierre-Luc Dubois scoring the same number of goals (one) as Logan Stanley. Defensive hockey and grinding out wins is great when it works, but when the bounces aren’t going your way, it can get really ugly, really fast. 17. Pittsburgh Penguins (34-26-10, -4. CF%: 7, xGF%: 5) The Pens lost all their games this past week and went from a plus-5 to minus-4 in goal differential. The only reason they’re still in the playoff race is that the Panthers just can’t seem to pull ahead though the Pens’ lead in points percentage is now just .001. 18. Arizona Coyotes (27-33-11, -46. CF%: 30, xGF%: 29) This isn’t a hot take. The Coyotes are 6-1-1 in their past seven and rank 12th in the league with 20 wins at home. They are not a good team, but they continue to punch well above their weight and crack the top 20 for the first time this season. 19. Vancouver Canucks (31-34-5, -26. CF%: 24, xGF%: 24) Not enough is being made of Elias Pettersson’s Selke-caliber level of play or Quinn Hughes’ low-key bid for the Norris. Rick Tocchet’s .583 points percentage with the Canucks is the highest of his career so far and bests Bruce Boudreau’s .549. The only time we hear “Bruce, there it is!” is when Robin points out where the Joker left a murder scene. 20. Nashville Predators (35-26-8, -7. CF%: 22, xGF%: 23) There’s still a chance the Preds make it. The Jets are five points ahead for the final wild-card spot, but the Preds have three games in hand. Luke Evangelista, Phil Tomasino and Tommy Novak are carrying this team – not even David Poile saw this coming. 21. Calgary Flames (32-25-15, +3. CF%: 2, xGF%: 3) The negative feelings compound when attributing bad luck to bad execution, which is perhaps why Darryl Sutter seems to have lost the room. But I’ve also never seen bad luck on so many levels [https://preview.redd.it/295oizb3b0pa1.jpg?width=1024&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=707ad70a6ce73dc56e5a67efa6931f52103e7b61]. Credit to u/brokensword15 on Reddit for the capture. 22. St. Louis Blues (31-33-6, -35. CF%: 27, xGF%: 28) Ask anybody in St. Louis if they should punt Jordan Binnington for Joel Hofer right now, and I bet no one says no. This is already a goaltending controversy brewing for 2023-24, and this season hasn’t even finished yet. 23. Washington Capitals (33-31-8, +1. CF%: 16, xGF%: 19) Would they have been better off with an Ilya Samsonov-Vitek Vanecek tandem this season? Legit question. The Caps have lost six of their past eight with 4.13 goals allowed per game, the fifth-highest during that span. 24. Ottawa Senators (34-32-5, -10. CF%: 13, xGF%: 14) Going 0-3-0 and getting outscored 16-6 through Western Canada pretty much kiboshed their playoff hopes. Side note: from Andrew Hammond to Dylan Ferguson, has any other team managed to get so many A-plus performances from barely replacement-level goalies?! 25. Buffalo Sabres (33-31-6, -12. CF%: 9, xGF%: 21) The Sabres had a 15-goal swing in goal differential over the past week, and they’ve gone 2-7-2 in March, including three losses at home by margins of four, six and seven goals. The highs have been very high, but the recent lows have been very low. 26. Philadelphia Flyers (26-32-12, -45. CF%: 25, xGF%: 25) Every time you think the Flyers hit rock bottom, John Tortorella squeezes something out of this group. Rookie Tyson Foerster is on a three-game point streak, including back-to-back two-point games. 27. Detroit Red Wings (31-30-9, -25. CF%: 26, xGF%: 26) They snapped a three-game losing streak but still have only won twice in regulation in March. Scoring matters, and during their 3-9-1 stretch, it is not a coincidence they scored more than three goals just three times (2-0-1). 28. Montreal Canadiens (28-37-6, -63. CF%: 29, xGF%: 30) Jake Allen has been absolutely brutal in March with a .858 SP and 5.03 GAA. They’re 2-7-2 this month, and their injury luck hasn’t gotten any better. In the game where Kirby Dach and Brendan Gallagher returned to the lineup, they lost Josh Anderson to a lower-body injury. 29. Chicago Blackhawks (24-40-6, -74. CF%: 31, xGF%: 31) Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe the lowest total to lead a team in scoring over an 82-game schedule in the cap era is Nick Bjugstad, with 38 points in the 2013-14 season for the Panthers. Right now, Taylor Raddysh is sitting at 33 points in 70 games if you don't include Max Domi's 49 points for Chicago and Patrick Kane's 45. 30. Anaheim Ducks (23-38-10, -104. CF%: 32, xGF%: 32) More historical stats in this wild season: the 2019-20 Red Wings have the worst goal differential in the cap era at minus-122 in 71 games during a season shortened by COVID. The Ducks can make history if they lose by an average of 1.73 goals per game for their remaining 11 games. Do it! 31. Columbus Blue Jackets (22-41-7, -84. CF%: 28, xGF%: 27) The Jackets are, statistically speaking, the worst team in the league, but still not the lowest point in franchise history. That milestone belongs to the 2001-02 Jackets with a .348 points percentage when Jody Shelley (!) was the only regular to finish the season with a positive plus-minus. The silver lining? They drafted Rick Nash first overall that summer. Foreshadowing…? 32. San Jose Sharks (19-37-15, -70. CF%: 20, xGF%: 11) The fewest number of wins at home over an 82-game schedule in the cap era is 10, set by the 2006-07 Flyers. The Sharks have to win four of their five remaining games at home just to tie. Only the Sabres have allowed more goals on home ice and – no offense to anyone, just pointing it out – but we’re going to unironically award the Norris to a player on this team.
