Predicting NHL Division Winners In 2024-25 Matthew Knies and David Pastrnak [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjA4ODUwOTgxOTgxNTI5MjYx/usatsi_23193616_168400847_lowres.jpg] Matthew Knies and David Pastrnak We’re getting close to the start of the NHL’s 2024-25 regular season, which means it’s time for your humble correspondent’s pre-season predictions on where teams will finish in each of the four divisional standings. We’re going to be transparent – sometimes, we’re bang-on, as we were when we picked three of the four playoff teams in the Atlantic Division last season [https://thehockeynews.com/news/predicting-the-nhls-atlantic-division-rankings-in-2023-24], and other times – like when we had the Vancouver Canucks in sixth spot in the Pacific Division last year [https://thehockeynews.com/news/predicting-the-nhls-pacific-division-rankings-in-2023-24] – we swung and missed. It's an inexact science, to say the least. With that introduction out of the way, we’re kicking off this year’s NHL pre-season picks by breaking down the Atlantic. We’re including The Hockey News’ collective picks from this year’s Yearbook [https://archive.thehockeynews.com/issue/633831/923753?t=IT%E2%80%99S%20IN%20THE%20STARS] to give you a reference as to where our collective opinion is, and remember that you can get it as a free issue when subscribing at THN.com/free [https://thehockeynews.store/products/print-subscription?variant=41284791828614]. But this file is primarily about this writer’s picks. As always, take them as a friendly guesstimate. Let’s get to it. 1. FLORIDA PANTHERS The Hockey News Yearbook Division Rank: 1st Why I've Ranked Them First: As the defending Stanley Cup champions, the Panthers will be expected to thrive once again this season. They are still a heavy, skilled group under coach Paul Maurice, and their best players – Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling – will all be needle-movers this year. Florida isn’t as deep as last season, but the core remains intact, which should mean a similarly successful regular season with a long playoff run. Why I Could Be Wrong: The Cup hangover is a real thing, and after a salary cap crunch, the Panthers have lost a good deal of their depth, including No. 2 goalie Anthony Stolarz, defensemen Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and forwards Vladimir Tarasenko and Kyle Okposo. If there are any significant injuries to Florida’s core players, the Panthers could drop down the standings to third place in the Atlantic, but there’s no reason this team can’t and won’t be a playoff team again. From there, it’s about peaking at the right time and learning from their championship run. 2. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS The Hockey News Yearbook Division Rank: 2nd Why I've Ranked Them Second: The Maple Leafs are the NHL’s most scrutinized team, and as such, every move they make goes under a microscope. Toronto GM Brad Treliving made a slew of moves, acquiring Ekman-Larsson, Chris Tanev and Jani Hakanpaa to transform the Buds’ defense, giving veterans Max Pacioretty and Steven Lorentz tryouts to shore up the offense and signing Stolarz to serve as one-half of the Leafs’ goaltending tandem. The Buds have improved at all three areas, and they should be a better team than the one that finished third in the Atlantic last season. They’ll ultimately be judged on their post-season, but the Leafs understand the ramifications of not winning at least a couple of rounds next spring. Their veterans are leading the way, and they’ll go only as far as they carry them. But we suspect the regular-season Leafs will be a top-10 team in the NHL and easily a top-three team in the Atlantic. Why I Could Be Wrong: Toronto’s goaltending is somewhat suspect, even if it's potentially better. Stolarz and youngster Joseph Woll do not have reputations as NHL workhorses. Woll, in particular, has had difficulty staying healthy. If either or both of those two are sidelined for any lengthy stretch and the Buds have to rely on veteran Matt Murray, Toronto could slip down the Atlantic ranks and find themselves fighting for a wild-card berth. If the core group – essentially, the same group that has been in place for several seasons now – can’t find another level to ratchet up their game to, Leafs fans will go ballistic and demand widespread change both on and off the ice again. There’s precious little room for error in the Atlantic Division, and one or two stretches of poor play could be the difference between a handful of places. 3. BOSTON BRUINS The Hockey News Yearbook Division Rank: 4th Why I've Ranked Them Third: The Bruins were the second-best team in the Atlantic last season and the fourth-best team in the Eastern Conference – and their off-season additions improved the club on paper. They brought on veteran center Elias Lindholm and defenseman Nikita Zadorov. Those two haven't been all-star-level competitors in recent years, but together, they make Boston more formidable, tougher and more experienced. Losing veteran winger Jake DeBrusk will sting, as will the trading of goalie Linus Ullmark, but there’s still more than enough talent for the B's to keep them being one of the most dangerous teams in the game. Why I Could Be Wrong: Until star goalie and current RFA Jeremy Swayman signs a contract extension, Bruins fans are right to worry about the effect on the team. Understudy Joonas Korpisalo had a down year in Ottawa last season, and asking him to carry the Bruins is too great of an ask. With the rest of the Atlantic looking to be better than last season, Boston could experience a drop in the standings. But betting against the B's in the past has made the bettor look foolish, so we’re certainly not counting them out of the Cup mix in 2024-25. 4. OTTAWA SENATORS The Hockey News Yearbook Division Rank: 7th Why I've Ranked Them Fourth: This is one team on which this writer has a different idea than the Yearbook’s collective pick of Ottawa finishing second-last in the division. It’s true the Senators have much to prove – especially regarding their young core and newly re-jigged goaltending – but we like the moves GM Steve Staios has made this off-season. In particular, landing Ullmark is likely to pay off with the best Sens goaltending since the banner days of Craig Anderson, and adding David Perron, Michael Amadio and Nick Cousins makes the forward group slicker and nastier. So long as Ullmark does his part, Ottawa has enough talent to shock some people and vault over a more accomplished team in Tampa Bay. That should be enough to please Sens fans, who will accept nothing less than a playoff berth this season. Why I Could Be Wrong: What happens if Ullmark flops under the intense pressure that will envelop the Senators all season long? Turning to veteran goalie Anton Forsberg for a long period seems like a recipe for disappointment in Canada’s capital. And if stars including Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk and Josh Norris don’t thrive or stay healthy, the Sens could yet again slip down the Atlantic standings and be on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Again, a bad November or other losing stretches could even become the difference between fourth place and seventh. But of the three up-and-coming teams in the Atlantic – the Senators, Buffalo Sabres and Detroit Red Wings – this writer believes the Sens are the deepest and most talented squad. That should be reflected in an improved standings position and their first taste of playoff hockey since 2016-17. This should be a big year for Ottawa, and unless the injury bug tears their team apart, the Senators have what it takes to take a sizeable jump in the standings. 5. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING The Hockey News Yearbook Division Rank: 3rd Why I've Ranked Them Fifth: The Lightning are one of the most accomplished teams in the game in recent years. Under GM Julien BriseBois, they’re unafraid to make bold roster changes, including saying goodbye to captain Steven Stamkos and defenseman Mikhail Sergachev. But even by replacing Stamkos and Sergachev with star left winger Jake Guentzel and second-stint defenseman Ryan McDonagh, the Bolts aren’t as deep nor as talented as they were in recent years. We still see Tampa Bay fighting for a playoff spot through the end of the regular season, and who knows – we can see them winning a wild-card slot and upsetting a playoff opponent. But of all the Atlantic teams that could take a step sideways or backward, the Lightning stand out as that team. This is a new era of sorts for them, and while they have their believers, we’re no longer as confident in their status as a playoff team year in and year out. Why I Could Be Wrong: This wouldn’t be the first time pundits have counted out the Bolts. With stars including Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Victor Hedman, this roster has a lot of high-end talent. Star goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy could return to form this season, and he’s the kind of elite goalie who can steal games for this team. So we’re definitely not underestimating the Lightning. But a spot in the top two in the Atlantic seems like a bridge too far for this team, and the competitiveness in the division will make Tampa’s road bumpy, to say the least. Don’t bet the house against the Lightning, but don’t bet on them to thrive, either. 6. DETROIT RED WINGS The Hockey News Yearbook Division Rank: 6th Why I've Ranked Them Sixth: The Red Wings had an exodus of talent this summer, particularly on offense. The few additions they did make – including Tarasenko, defenseman Erik Gustafsson and goalie Cam Talbot – are underwhelming, to put it mildly. Detroit GM Steve Yzerman’s blueprint for success isn’t off track since there is still a wave of young talent on the way. But more questions could be asked if the Wings fail to make the playoffs this year. That’s a very real possibility. There’s a lot to like about the Red Wings, but quality depth is a concern, and goaltending could continue to be a question mark for this franchise. If Detroit doesn’t make the post-season, it will be intriguing to see how Yzerman and ownership react. They don’t appear to be an elite team at the moment, and even if they do make the playoffs, they'll be underdogs. We’re pessimistic about their playoff chances this year, and we’ll be happy to be surprised otherwise, but this writer and The Hockey News Yearbook aren’t seeing enough to pick them as a playoff team. Why I Could Be Wrong: If Talbot comes in, makes the starter’s job his own and helps Detroit cut down on their goals-against totals – they allowed the ninth-most goals in the NHL last season – there is a chance the Red Wings sneak into the playoffs as a wild-card squad. They also must stay healthy, as injuries last season were partially why they missed out on the playoffs. They don’t have enough depth to help them overcome many injuries. The longer the Red Wings' playoff drought continues – without getting a high draft pick – the more it looks like they will continue to be fighting for a playoff spot but coming up short. Don’t count them out completely, but definitely don’t count them in. 7. BUFFALO SABRES The Hockey News Yearbook Division Rank: 5th Why I've Ranked Them Seventh: We should mention the Yearbook also has the Sabres out of the playoff picture for what would be the 14th straight season. It brings us no joy to put Buffalo this far down the Atlantic standings, but after the letdown of the 2023-24 campaign, we’re in full “show, don’t tell” mode with this collection of players after years of saying it'll be different. The Sabres still have a better-than-average group of youngsters – we really like their defense corps, which may be the deepest group of young ‘D’ men in the NHL. But Buffalo’s off-season changes, including swapping out sniper Jeff Skinner in favor of veteran Jason Zucker, have not made them more fearsome. Sabres GM Kevyn Adams clearly wanted to make his team tougher to play against, but in the Atlantic – our pick for the most competitive division in the NHL this season – it’s going to be mighty difficult for Buffalo to leapfrog over the Red Wings, Lightning and Senators to secure a post-season slot. Why I Could Be Wrong: Two years ago, the Sabres looked like they were finally ready to do some damage in the East, but last season was a sobering reminder of how far they have to come before they can match up well against Florida, Toronto and Boston. Adding second-tier talents like Sam Lafferty and Nicolas Aube-Kubel doesn’t really move the needle for them. That said, if Tage Thompson, Dylan Cozens and Buffalo’s other young stars elevate their games this year and bounce back from last year's setback, the Sabres could sneak into the post-season and finally reward their long-suffering fans. We’d love to see that happen, but the reality is Buffalo is closer to the bottom of the Atlantic than the top. Too many things have to go right for them – and go wrong for their opponents – to expect them to rise high enough to make the post-season. 8. MONTREAL CANADIENS The Hockey News Yearbook Division Rank: 8th Why I've Ranked Them Eighth: The Canadiens have been dutifully moving toward being a playoff-capable team for quite a while. GM Kent Hughes has savvily added young talent either through the draft or trades. This summer, he even landed a proven scorer in Patrik Laine. That said, Montreal needs a season or two to develop into a playoff-caliber group. Along with youngsters Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, Kirby Dach and Juraj Slafkovsky, the Habs have a core of talent that will soon carry them into the top half of the standings, but that isn’t happening this year. Under coach Martin St-Louis, the Canadiens will be harder to play against, but they also have a good way to go before they can challenge for a post-season spot. Internal development will be key. It would be a major achievement just to get out of the Atlantic basement, but even if Montreal stays at the bottom of the division, better days clearly are ahead. Why I Could Be Wrong: It might take a minor miracle to get the Habs out of eighth place in the Atlantic, but miracles happen occasionally. The Canadiens would shock the league if they finished in a playoff spot, but that’s highly unlikely right now. Hughes is still making over the roster, and that could mean there will be in-season trades that focus on the future and not the current regular season, but it will take a massive improvement for them to prove their doubters wrong. Let us know your division predictions at our forum [https://thehockeynews.roundtable.io/THNHOME/posts]. 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