The Edmonton Oilers are shaky. The Buffalo Sabres fumbled their crucial start. The Philadelphia Flyers are pretty good. Tony Ferrari examines those and the rest of his observations and overreactions early in the NHL season.
The early stages of the new NHL season mean we are finally getting a glimpse of what the year ahead could bring.
The first few games of the year are our first look at how each team’s off-season additions fit in and whether they are going to be missing their departures.
That said, it’s also overreaction season. It's when we take the small sample size every NHL club provided us and go overboard with our analysis. Fans build up their hype if their teams come out of the gate hot, and other fan bases (looking at you, Toronto and Edmonton) tear their team apart if they haven’t hit the ground running.
Let’s look around the NHL at some of the overreactions and whether there may be any truth to them.
Canada’s Stanley Cup Favorites Look Shaky
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers came into the season as Canada’s best hopes to bring the Cup up North for the first time since 1993. So far, they both looked like sad and dysfunctional versions of themselves. Both have suffered losses to squads expected to be at the bottom of the standings and looked lackluster in doing so.
The Leafs haven’t found find a way to win unless Auston Matthews has a hat trick. William Nylander looks like their most consistent player through four games, looking to earn the big contract he’s asking for. Morgan Rielly has been the only capable blueliner on the team. Beyond that, the team looks rough.
Their depth scoring has been terrible. The defense group looks like it lacks any ability to move the puck, with defensive stalwarts T.J. Brodie and Jake McCabe looking worse than anyone. They haven’t had great goaltending as of yet, although Ilya Samsonov recovered to have a decent third game of his first year as the No. 1 guy. The big-name signings – Max Domi, John Klingberg, and Ryan Reaves - haven’t looked comfortable at all.
In Edmonton, the team looks a bit lost at both ends of the rink. Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid have been up to their old tricks, putting up seven and five points, respectively, and McDavid scored a goal-of-the-year candidate against Nashville. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has six points already, carrying over his impressive point totals from last season. That’s where the fun ends, though.
The goalie situation is a dumpster fire, as neither Jack Campbell or Stuart Skinner have stopped the puck consistently enough. Their defense group has been disjointed, and the already concerning Darnell Nurse deal looks as bad as it ever has. Aside from the big three and Zach Hyman, the Oilers have gotten three points total from the rest of the forwards. That’s just not good enough.
Thankfully for fans of the Leafs and Oilers, neither team is likely to be in this position all year. They still have a chance at not only getting back into the thick of it, but they should still be among the favorites to win their divisions. They just need to clean up some of the early-season silliness.
Ottawa and Detroit Are Living Up to Increasing Expectations
This was the season we expected the “have-nots” from the Atlantic Division to bridge the gap, and thus far, they’ve done exactly that. The Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings are leading the division in the early going, playing some exciting hockey along the way.
The Senators have seen their young core take big steps and put up some impressive offensive performances. Tim Stutzle has six points in four games despite not looking like he’s fully up to speed yet. Jake Sanderson made anyone who questioned his contract extension look silly. Captain Brady Tkachuk has been his fiery self en route to some big goals early in the season. Even Josh Norris, who started the season out of the lineup with an injury, returned to a massive offensive performance in his first game back.
It’s not just the young guys, though. After a tough first game, Vladimir Tarasenko looks fantastic and sits tied for the team lead in scoring. Claude Giroux may be aging, but he’s doing it like fine wine. Jakob Chychrun and Artem Zub solidified the back end, providing solid, steady play.
For Detroit, a former Senator spurred their hot start as Alex DeBrincat has filled the scoresheet to the tune of five goals and eight points through four games. The Michigan-born sniper has looked right at home with the Red Wings. Fellow hometown kid Dylan Larkin has been simply fantastic to start the year in his own right, giving the Wings a dynamic one-two Michigan punch offensively. Jake Walman continues to be the most underrated blueliner in the NHL as a solidifying presence alongside franchise defender Moritz Seider.
New additions J.T. Compher, Daniel Sprong and Shayne Gostisbehere have all been pivotal members of the team, adding some veteran savvy to a lineup that needed it. The Red Wings' depth in the bottom six isn’t sexy, but it’s been incredibly effective to start the season.
Whether either of these teams can maintain this level of play and usurp one of the division’s powerhouses remains to be seen, but with Toronto’s slow start, Boston being in the post-Patrice Bergeron era and Tampa and Florida both struggling with health, it may be time for Detroit and Ottawa to pounce.
Maybe We Asked for Too Much, Too Soon from Buffalo
The Buffalo Sabres were supposed to be the best of the improving “have-nots.” They were supposed to be a step ahead of Ottawa and Detroit. They have been anything but that so far, as they sit at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings and the bottom third of the NHL in goals-for to start the season.
A slow start by the top line of Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner, and Alex Tuch has played a major role in the Sabres’ slow start – each of them has just one point to show for their efforts. All the hype Devon Levi generated late last season when he joined the squad led to him being the starting goalie on Day 1, and he’s struggled a bit with an .892 save percentage while playing in all four games.
It’s safe to say the top line and the rest of the offense will get going eventually, as they were one of the league's most offensively gifted units last year. The Sabres almost made the playoffs last year with abysmal goaltending, so if Levi and backup Eric Comrie can provide league-average netminding, they still have a very good shot at ending their streak of missing the playoffs. It’s not time to panic for Sabres fans, at least not yet.
Philadelphia is Healthy and Dangerous
This was not what anyone expected from the Philadelphia Flyers coming into the season. Cam Atkinson missed all of last season and has three goals in four games. Before this year, Sean Couturier’s last game was in December 2021, and he already has four points this season. Even Travis Konecny missed time last season, and his five points lead the team early in this campaign.
Much like past years, Carter Hart is off to a hot start for the Flyers, posting a .929 save percentage while playing in every game.
The Flyers as a whole look much better, with contributions from Joel Farabee and Scott Laughton to Egor Zamula and Travis Sanheim. They must stay healthy, and Hart needs to be elite in net if this team wants to stay out of the basement, but unfortunately, they still have some pretty long odds when it comes to making the playoffs.
Ovechkin and the Capitals Look Washed
We all knew the Capitals were going to be hard done by to make the playoffs and that getting Alex Ovechkin closer to Wayne Gretzky’s goal-scoring record was the most important thing. Unfortunately, the team looks absolutely lifeless at the moment. They have scored a league-low three goals through three games, and they were just manhandled by the Senators in a 6-1 thumping.
The most concerning part is that not only is Ovechkin scoreless to start the season, but he is generating shots at a putrid rate. After four shots in his first contest, he hasn’t registered a shot on goal in two games. Ovechkin has always been a volume shooter, so the shot totals early in this season aren't normal. A combination of an underwhelming supporting cast and Father Time finally catching up to Ovechkin are likely the culprits for the slow start.
Ovechkin is just 72 goals away from Gretzky’s record, and he still has two seasons after this one on his current contract. He needs to average just 24 goals over the next three years. Aside from the COVID-shortened 56-game season when he scored 24 goals, he has never had under 32 goals in a season and has hit the 40-goal mark 14 times. Ovechkin averaged 48 goals over the last five seasons, excluding the 56-game campaign.
All this to say, while the Capitals will likely not only miss the playoffs but may wind up one of the lottery teams at the end of the season, Ovechkin will find his scoring touch. If he fails to reach the 35-goal mark, I’d be shocked.
Defending Camps Still Look Golden
The Vegas Golden Knights are off to the best start of any defending Stanley Cup champion in the last 25 years. They have won all five of their games to start the season averaging 3.8 goals-for and 1.6 goals against per game. They’ve gotten great goaltending, timely scoring and some very solid defensive efforts. After winning the Cup in June, they look just as good to start the year.
All the big names are producing. Jack Eichel picked up right where he left off. Mark Stone looks like the Mark Stone we all know and love. Chandler Stephenson leads the team in scoring. Shea Theodore continues to be one of the most effective puck-movers in the league. Both Logan Thompson and Adin Hill have been outstanding in net.
While they won’t win every single game this season, they should be one of the best teams in the NHL yet again. If they can maintain something close to this high level of play, they could be the favorites to repeat when the playoffs kick off in the spring.
San Jose Begins their Quest to be #Rotten4Macklin
Listen, the hashtag needs work, but the San Jose Sharks are gunning for first overall this season, and the winless start is a great way to kick that off.
They are still in the early stages of the rebuild, and players like William Eklund and Thomas Bordeleau look like they belong in the NHL. Reclamation projects Anthony Duclair and Filip Zadina have been very good to start the season. Tomas Hertl continues to be their best player and leading scorer.
The team defense has been unwatchable at times, and the defense corps especially has been sloppy with the puck. Goaltending's been up and down, which was to be expected with a tandem of Mackenzie Blackwood and Kaapo Kahkonen. They still have a lot of room for improvement, and even if many of those things happen, they will likely still be near the bottom of the standings.