What Happens When CHL Players Are Allowed To Join The NCAA?

The shift in policy appears to be coming soon and it will have far-reaching implications throughout the hockey world. We have some theories.

A seismic shift is about to occur in the hockey prospect world. 

For decades, playing major junior hockey essentially prohibited a player from joining an NCAA program. Now, as part of a wave of litigation that has changed American college sports in the past few years (spearheaded by the big-revenue sports of football and basketball), this seems to be coming to an end. The expectation is that CHL players will be allowed to play in the NCAA as soon as next season.

Now, a lot of this is in flux, and even the major stakeholders are still wrestling with what this landscape is going to look like - the commissioners of the three leagues (OHL, WHL, QMJHL) and CHL president Dan MacKenzie are expected to meet very soon on the matter - but the simplest outcome appears to be that eligibility will be extended to major junior players who have not signed pro contracts (i.e. NHL draft picks who have inked their entry-level deals would not be eligible). Perhaps even that will open up one day, but let's not get ahead of ourselves any more than we already have.

But based on the initial info swirling around out there, I thought I'd take a stab at What This All Means for the development world. So let's pontificate on some of the ramifications of the near future and who stands to benefit (and who may suffer).

Duh, this is an easy one. All of a sudden, players have more choice in where they play hockey and don't have to commit to the college route when they're 15, as they basically do now. If we assume that the majority of CHLers who will be taking advantage of this new rule are overagers or grads, then fewer of said overagers will be traded from team to team before the season begins. Right now, CHL teams are allowed three 20-year-olds per roster and since they typically have more than three 19-year-olds the year prior, inevitably veterans are cut or dealt in order to get under the line.

This deal also hypothetically gives players more leverage: If they're unhappy with their major junior team, they can head off to the NCAA, assuming they've banked enough high school credits (and even if they haven't, they could head off to, say, the BCHL in the interim). Or, at the least, they can threaten to do so in order to spark a trade. Now, I'll couch this point by acknowledging that major junior players do have contracts with their CHL teams, so it's hard to say what the legal system would have to say about such moves - but everything is truly up in the air right now; we're on alien soil.

This is where I see the most change happening. Think about schools like Mercyhurst, Niagara or Canisius: All programs that either share a city with an OHL team, or have one just across the border. All of a sudden, they'll have access to several graduating Erie Otters or Niagara IceDogs every year. And these will be seasoned players who can step right into a lineup.

This will also be a boon for new programs: Stonehill College just got a big opening-season win over Merrimack after winning just two games total in their first D1 campaign last year. The Skyhawks are in a tough recruiting area, surrounded by more established Massachusetts schools. But now they can pitch ample playing time to former Saint John Sea Dogs or Halifax Mooseheads players. This could also be massive for Tennessee State, the HBCU that is going from having no club team, straight to D1 next season. The Tigers have already recruited a handful of kids, but now they can extend their net even further by looking at major junior players who want to make history while living in the famously not-boring city of Nashville.

I can also see a scenario where CHL grads jump onto a power school such as Michigan, North Dakota or Boston College - because these programs have so many NHL draft picks, the roster churn can be dizzying. And if someone leaves earlier than anticipated, perhaps an older major junior recruit jumps in while younger pledges develop at lower levels.

But in general, this new world could be massive for NCAA parity and, dare I say it, further expansion. Of course, starting a hockey program is very expensive and there are Title IX rules to consider (equal scholarship opportunities for men and women at a school) - but there has even been talk of Title IX being impacted by a lawsuit, so who knows?

Overall, this will be great for all NCAA schools because there will be a pool of plug-and-play talent now available: You could bring in a veteran of four CHL seasons with a ton of playoff experience and perhaps even a Memorial Cup title - and have that player for four seasons yourself.

This seems pretty obvious. Canadian University hockey has basically become the aged-out CHL in recent years, with powerhouse teams such as the University of New Brunswick being composed of former major junior players looking to continue their careers. Now, perhaps some of those players would prefer a Canadian diploma to an American one - and fair play there - but most likely we're going to see an enormous talent drain for U Sports. One agent I spoke to believes this could be a death-knell for Canadian University hockey, at least in terms of the level of talent. The scholarship packages attached to NCAA schools, not to mention options both fun (Arizona State, Tennessee State) or famous (Michigan, North Dakota), make the leap down south very appealing.

According to College Hockey Inc., the three biggest providers of NCAA talent for this season are the USHL (699 players), NAHL (394) and BCHL (352). In this new world order, I would expect players from circuits such as the NAHL to get dinged more so than some of the more elite players from say, the USHL or BCHL. Other Canadian Jr. A leagues will be in the same boat as the NAHL, however. It's not going to seem fair for a lot of these kids, because there is certainly the possibility that they will be replaced by overage/graduated CHLers, even if the NAHL kid had committed to a school years prior. Recruiting wars could become voracious and unfortunately, there will be casualties - which is why I hope we see more NCAA programs join D1 in the coming years.

There are still so many unknowns surrounding this issue: Will it only be overagers eligible, or any kid who has finished high school? If it's the latter, what does it mean for the contracts players sign in major junior? Will CHL teams still pay for a player's education package, or will the NCAA school be on the hook for the scholarship? How will NIL money play into this? Frankly, this is just the beginning of what is going to be a fascinating evolution in the developmental game.

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