The New York Islanders are hanging on to a wild-card playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Making the post-season would be an encouraging sign for next year.
Bo Horvat.As we move into mid-March, the stakes for most NHL teams are beginning to rise. Some elite teams are focused on their playoff position, but many other teams are worried about just getting to the post-season. And there’s no better example of that latter type of team than the New York Islanders.
The Isles are in a terrific battle with some of their fellow Metropolitan Division teams, as well as a few teams from the Atlantic Division, to secure a post-season berth. And the Islanders’ remaining 14 regular-season games are going to decide whether they do make it into the Stanley Cup playoffs, or whether they finish out of the post-season for the second consecutive year.
If the Isles do fail to qualify for the playoffs, one of the factors they can blame it on is their league-worst shootout record of 0-5.
If they’d won half of those games or more, they’d be much closer to the New York Rangers for third place in the Metro. But as it stands, they’re eight points behind the Rangers, and the Blueshirts have two games in hand.
Unless the Rangers completely fall apart, the best the Islanders can hope for is the first wild-card spot. Even then, they’d be facing the Carolina Hurricanes or New Jersey Devils in the first round. And they’d rightfully be the underdog against any team they take on in Round 1.
It’s also still possible the Isles wind up in the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. That would put them in a first-round battle against the Boston Bruins. Again, the Islanders would be massive underdogs to beat the steamrolling Bruins. This is not to say it would be completely impossible for the Islanders to make it out of the first round, but most observers would expect Boston to beat the Isles with relative ease.
Still, making the playoffs would be an encouraging sign for the Islanders. GM Lou Lamoriello has most of the team’s talent signed through next season, with a few notable exceptions, including trade deadline acquisition Pierre Engvall, veteran forward Zach Parise, defenseman Scott Mayfield and goaltender Semyon Varlamov.
As per CapFriendly, Lamoriello has 18 players under contract and $6.1 million in salary cap space for next season. That would mean the Isles won’t be a major player on the free-agent front, but if they miss the playoffs, all bets are off.
Star center Bo Horvat (and his brand new contract extension worth $8.5 million per season that kicks in next year) would be off the table in trades, and star forward Mathew Barzal and No. 1 goalie Ilya Sorokin are also untouchable. After that, just about every Islanders asset would be up for discussion in trade talks.
That said, the Isles’ remaining regular-season games give them every chance to avoid big changes next season and be a playoff team.
Eight of their remaining 14 games come against current non-playoff teams: two games against Washington and one each against Anaheim, San Jose, Columbus, Buffalo, Philadelphia and Montreal. Their other six games are against Tampa Bay (twice), Toronto, New Jersey, Los Angeles and Carolina. The key games for them are against wild-card battlers Buffalo and Washington and their contests with Metro rivals Philadelphia and New Jersey.
Clearly, the Islanders can’t afford to stumble anymore. They’re 6-2-1 in their past nine games, and even that type of pace may not be enough to fend off the Sabres, Pittsburgh Penguins, Florida Panthers and Ottawa Senators for one of the two wild-card slots.
It was only two years ago that the Islanders surged through the post-season and made it all the way to the conference final for the second straight year. They have many of the same components as that team, but Lamoriello has changed the makeup of the group by adding Horvat, Engvall and defenseman Alexander Romanov, and he expects better results.
The Isles’ defense is solid – their average of 2.68 goals against per game is the sixth-best in the NHL – but they need their offense to be better. Horvat will help with that, but the Isles’ other core players have to ratchet up their offensive game.
We’re now at the point in the season where many teams are playing high-stakes games, and the Islanders are one of them. They can’t afford to stumble, and though their games aren’t quite do-or-die just yet, they will be soon.
It’s on them to take advantage of their schedule and lock up a playoff berth. If they don’t do that, they can only blame themselves.