The Florida Panthers, New York Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins are battling for two NHL wild-card spots. Adam Proteau analyzes their remaining schedules.
After a slew of games Thursday night, the NHL’s playoff picture is coming into clearer focus. In the Western Conference, there’s just the second and final wild-card berth up for grabs, with Winnipeg (89 standings points, with four games left to play) in eighth place, Calgary (89 points, with three games left) and Nashville (88 points, with four games remaining) all in the mix.
However, in the Eastern Conference, both wild-card slots have yet to be determined, and there are three teams battling it out for them.
As it stands at the moment, the Florida Panthers – who walloped Ottawa 7-2 Thursday – occupy the first wild card, with 89 points. In the second wild-card spot, the New York Islanders also have 89 points and won their game against Tampa Bay Thursday, but they have one fewer regulation win than the Panthers, meaning the tiebreaker goes to Florida. And with 88 points, the Pittsburgh Penguins (who beat Minnesota 4-1 Thursday) are still in a competitive position, although they have five fewer regulation wins than Florida and four fewer than the Isles.
With that said, let’s take a look at the remaining regular-season games the Pens, Panthers and Islanders have left, and see who has the easiest path to a playoff spot.
Florida Panthers
One road game versus Washington, two home games versus Toronto and Carolina.
Give the Panthers credit – they’ve been playing like the desperate team they had to be after halting a four-game losing skid in late March. They peeled off five straight wins to push themselves into the first wild-card position. In that five-game win streak, they’ve outscored their opponents 24-7. But their early-season struggles have kept them from rising any higher in the Atlantic Division, so they go into this coming week with no room for error.
Florida gets the Capitals first. Considering Washington is limping to the finish of a disappointing year, that’s a game the Panthers should win, even though their road record of 18-19-3 makes it clear they’ll need to be at their best to keep the win streak alive.
After that, Florida gets the Maple Leafs and Hurricanes in the Panthers’ home rink – but, fortunately for them, the Leafs (who have locked up the second-overall spot in the Atlantic) are likely to rest many of their regular players. It’s easy to see Florida beating that kind of Leafs team as well.
The tricky game for the Panthers is the Hurricanes, who remain in a fierce battle with New Jersey for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division. The Canes may be in a position by the time they take on Florida to also rest some of their veterans, but if the top spot in the Metro is still on the line, there’s every reason for Carolina to ice their full lineup.
New York Islanders
One home game versus Philadelphia, one road game versus Washington, one home game versus Montreal
The Islanders snapped a two-game losing streak Thursday with a win over the Lightning, and they’ll almost certainly have to run the table in their final three games to make the post-season. They’re fortunate to be playing three non-playoff teams in the upcoming week – the Flyers (who’ve dropped four consecutive games), the Caps (who’ve dropped three in a row) and the Canadiens (who are 4-6-0 in their past 10). Like the Panthers and Penguins, the Isles must secure at least five points in that span.
The Flyers, Capitals and Habs will relish the chance to play spoiler against the Islanders, but with two of their final three games at home on Long Island – where their record is a solid 23-13-3 – the Isles won’t have anyone to blame but themselves if they wind up on the outside of the playoff picture.
Pittsburgh Penguins
One road game versus Detroit, one home game versus Chicago, one road game versus Columbus
The Pens got an absolutely massive win over the Wild on Thursday to keep their playoff hopes alive, and they’ve got the easiest schedule between themselves, the Islanders and the Panthers.
With games against the Red Wings, Blackhawks and Blue Jackets, Pittsburgh should and must win all three of them. That said, the Penguins are a significantly worse team on the road this year (16-18-5), and they’re just 5-5-0 in their past 10 games.
Remember, the Penguins are battling as hard as they can for what very well could turn out to be the second wild card and a playoff date with the leviathan Boston Bruins in the first round. Ideally, they’d push past the Islanders and Panthers and get the first wild card, but because of their losing woes of late, they’ll have to hope Florida and the Isles lose at least one game in regulation.
So, which teams look like the best bets for the wild-card spots? In this writer’s opinion, the Penguins have the easiest path in their final three games. The Islanders have the second-easiest path, and the Panthers have the most difficult path. Anything can happen, of course, but the hunch here is that Florida doesn’t have it in them to win eight games in a row. And if they lose just one game, that could be all it takes to eliminate them from playoff contention.