Rebuilding an NHL team is a huge risk. It's even riskier with the Winnipeg Jets. Handing out seven-year deals to two 30-year-olds is much more important than it seems, writes Jacob Stoller.

WINNIPEG — You’ll seldom see a GM go on their phone during a press conference.

But Winnipeg Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff did so with a grin as Mark Scheifele, seated to his left, spoke to reporters at a Tuesday press conference held in the aftermath of him and superstar netminder Connor Hellebuyck signing identical seven-year, $59.5-million contracts.

As Scheifele spoke of his mother reminding him about signing his entry-level contract a day before his first NHL game — which was 12 years to the date from this past Thanksgiving Monday when the extension was announced — the seasoned executive reached into his suit jacket pocket. Cheveldayoff unlocked his phone and twiddled his thumbs for two seconds before pointing the screen to Scheifele, cutting him off mid-sentence. Cheveldayoff had photo evidence — or rather, a memento — of that very moment Scheifele described queued up.

“That’s pretty wild,” Scheifele said, smiling from ear to ear.

To some, that moment will invoke a proverbial eye roll to those who are skeptical of the Jets’ unwavering commitment to this core — which has won one playoff round since their run to the Western Conference final in 2017-18. Or, more specifically, those who think the contracts are a commitment to the dreaded mushy middle of the NHL, where the Jets have been not good enough for a deep playoff run but not bad enough for a high draft pick. 

But really, that moment was a reflection of Cheveldayoff chalking up another win in the organization’s draft and development model. The Winnipeg Jets can’t operate like most NHL teams, and even if they could, it’s not like a full-fledged rebuild is guaranteed to work, nor is it practical with the personnel Winnipeg has.

Let’s call a spade a spade — Winnipeg is not universally known as the go-to place to play. They’re a staple among players’ no-trade lists. Whether it’s the frigid climate or blue-collar feel, Manitoba’s capital isn’t for everyone. 

To the Jets’ credit, they’ve been able to retain homegrown talent like Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey and Nikolaj Ehlers on long-term deals, and it should be noted this is the second time Scheifele and Hellebuyck are each committing long-term to the team. 

But the Jets are also well-versed in situations where players won’t entertain the prospect of a long-term deal — such as Jacob Trouba and PL Dubois. 

Drafting, developing or trading for talent is one thing, but retaining them is another ball game. So when you have a situation unfold like it did with Hellebuyck and Scheifele, there simply is no other alternative than retaining them. Paying a bit of a “Winnipeg tax” by giving seven years on the deal — when both players will be 37 years of age — is a small price. The potential short-term gain outweighs the inevitable pain that could come at the end of those deals.

According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, negotiations began with Hellebuyck. During the course of that, Hellebuyck asked about Scheifele and where he factored into it. For the Jets, selling a winner to Hellebuyck — one of the NHL’s elite goaltenders — would be hard to do without Scheifele, a consistent point-per-game player in recent years.

Now if you’re in the camp that believes these moves signal the Jets re-upping a mediocre nucleus, a couple of things need to be taken into account. Rebuilds aren’t easy, nor are they guaranteed to work. 

Remember, the Jets, and every NHL team, are a business. They need to sell tickets and, ideally, sell out the Canada Life Centre – currently with the second-smallest capacity in the league next to a college rink in Arizona – more consistently, which they haven’t done in a while. And starting a rebuild while coming out of a few COVID-19-plagued seasons is certainly not timely.

The goal of a rebuild would be to start fresh and build a much more desirable core from the ground up. But doing so would be rolling the dice on harvesting a crop that's as good as or better than the pieces they already have, not to mention the uncertainty of whether or not those players would buy into a long-term future in Winnipeg.

Winnipeg’s best bet to change its perception around the NHL is to solidify itself as a winner.

“You don’t win without certain pieces, key pieces, to your team,” Jets coach Rick Bowness said following the presser. “You need the goalie. You need the goal-scorer, the big centerman. We have that. They’re surrounded (by) a lot of good quality pieces. You need the kingpins to carry the team.”

According to Byron Bader of hockeypropsecting.com, an NHL team needs an average of three 3.71 star players to make the playoffs and five to win the Stanley Cup. Bader defines a star as a forward with at least 0.7 points per game and a defenseman with at least 0.45 points per game. As of right now, the Jets have six stars — Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, Josh Morrissey, Neal Pionk, Connor Hellebuyck and Kyle Connor (who is classified as a superstar by Bader’s model).

As Cheveldayoff later noted, Scheifele and Hellebuyck are at the top of their respective positions.

“Those are hard to find, and they're harder to keep,” Cheveldayoff said.

Scheifele, who is coming off a career-high 42-goal season last year, has scored about a point per game throughout the past seven years.

While the two-time 80-plus-point scorer and three-time 30-plus-goal scorer has drawn criticism for his lack of commitment to playing a 200-foot game, players with his offensive skill set — highlighted by his sharpshooting and elite vision — don’t grow on trees.

Aside from Andrei Vasilevsky, Hellebuyck has been one of the best goaltenders in the NHL over the last half-decade. The two-time NHL all-star and 2019-20 Vezina Trophy winner is one of the most technically sound goalies of the Modern Era. 

Hellebuyck and Scheifele give the Jets the best chance to contend. There will come a day, perhaps at the tail-end of these contracts, when it’s time to tear it all down. And when that day comes, the Jets will surely build from the ground up like they did upon relocating from Atlanta.

But rebuilding now? It’d lose sight of what the Jets have right in front of them.