Winnipeg star winger Nikolaj Ehlers is entering the final year of his contract and his decision to either stay with the Jets or move on could have a great impact on the team.

For a while now, the long-term fate of Winnipeg Jets winger Nikolaj Ehlers has been in question. As one of the few key Jets not locked up to a long-term contract – Ehlers is entering the final year of a contract paying him an average annual cap hit of $6 million – Elhers is seen by some as not being a long-term fit in Winnipeg. But Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff recently gave his public support to Ehlers being an integral part of the plan for the team, and you can understand why he would.

Indeed, the 28-year-old Ehlers posted 25 goals and 61 points this past season – his best points total since he put up 64 in the 2016-17 season – and he’s now a player who has generated at least 25 goals in five of his nine NHL seasons. He’s far from a perfect player, but there’s no chance Cheveldayoff is going to trade him unless there’s something very valuable coming to Winnipeg in return. 

There is a high-stakes game of chicken going on contractually here, but with the re-signings of stars Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele last year, Cheveldayoff showed that he and Jets ownership are willing to step up and pay the team’s top players a respectable salary to keep them in the fold over the long haul.

If there’s a defenseman the Jets can acquire for Ehlers – ostensibly, to replace departed veteran Brenden Dillon – it makes sense for Winnipeg to trade Ehlers. Similarly, if Cheveldayoff can get a younger, equally dangerous-on-offence player in exchange for Ehlers, he’d be a fool to let such an opportunity pass by. But few teams are prepared to offer up those assets at the moment, so Cheveldayoff is playing the waiting game. He may have to wait until next year’s NHL trade deadline before choosing to move on from Ehlers, but if that’s what it takes to get as close as he can get to Ehlers' full value, that’s the right move.

Ehlers is almost assuredly going to get a raise in his next contract, but the key questions are (a) how much of a raise he’ll get, and (b) what type of contract term are we talking about. If he’s looking for a six or seven-year deal and something in the area of $7 million or more, it’s probably time to cash him in as a chip and get as many assets as he can get for him in a trade. 

Ehlers has pretty much delivered as advertised over his NHL career, but the salary cap squeeze is a very real thing, and it’s going to continue to chip away at Winnipeg’s depth of high-end talent. Even if the cap ceiling continues to rise notably, there just may not be a proper fit for Ehlers and the Jets anymore.

That said, it’s early July, which means many things can happen between now and the start of next season. Another GM could step up and offer the Jets a solid return package for Ehlers, the same way Cheveldayoff waited and got an excellent deal for former center Pierre-Luc Dubois. Or Ehlers could force the team’s hand by letting them know he isn’t interested in re-signing with Winnipeg after this coming year. That’s the type of information that’s heavily guarded, but if Ehlers truly doesn’t see a way he can return to the Jets, he can do the franchise a favor by keeping his feelings to himself and letting Cheveldayoff find a trade that works for both the team and the player.

The Jets are the only NHL team Ehlers has ever known, but like many players who approach their thirties in hockey’s best league, Ehlers might wonder how green the pastures are elsewhere. And if he senses he’ll be more content in another market, there’s not a lot Cheveldayoff can do to stop him from moving on. 

With every day that passes, Ehlers gains more leverage for his next contract, and if he once again amasses at least 20 goals by the trade deadline, there will be no shortage of teams willing to either use him as a pure rental player, or as a long-term fit to include in their core. By taking its time right now, Winnipeg could set the stage for an excellent trade package to come their way in a deal for Ehlers.

Winnipeg’s lack of playoff success almost assuredly means some type of change will be coming in the 2024-25 campaign, and the most likely candidate to be moved out is Ehlers. He’s been a major contributor in his time with the Jets, but a cold calculation about his future should dictate whether he’s in Winnipeg for life, or whether this is the final season for him in a Jets uniform. 

One way or another, Ehlers is coming to a crossroads, and while the choice of which route he takes might take another half-year or so to nail down, he’s got to decide what his legacy in Winnipeg is going to be. He can still stay part of the long-term solution, or he can get out while he’s still in his prime. The choice ultimately is up to Ehlers, and the decision he makes will help shape the Jets for a long time to come.