Detroit is in the midst of an eight-year playoff drought, yet have only had one top-five draft pick during that span. Will their luck change at all in 2024-25?

With the unfortunate distinction of having the second-longest current playoff drought in the NHL, GM Steve Yzerman didn’t sugarcoat the state of the Detroit Red Wings in his latest media availability.

“We’re in with that group of teams that has a chance to compete for the playoffs," Yzerman told reporters on July 4. "If we stay healthy, if our goaltending is good, and you get some maybe unexpected — some players outplay your expectation — we might get in. Or you might just miss by a point on the last game of the season. That’s the fine line of it all."

That's a lot of "Ifs"

It's been five years since Yzerman took over and the ‘Yzerplan’ took shape. Since then, a Red Wings team that last qualified for the playoffs in 2016 has largely resided in the mushy middle. 

They’re in an eight-year playoff drought (five years since Yzerman was hired as GM in 2019), yet they’ve only amassed one top-five pick (Lucas Raymond, selected fourth overall in 2020) during that span. Not good enough for the playoffs, they are also not bad enough for a lottery pick. It's a puzzling strategy. And for Red Wings fans who are still waiting to celebrate a post-season game at the recently built Little Caesars Arena, it has to be frustrating.

Is this what the Yzerplan was supposed to be? If so, the blueprint needs refining.

“We all would love to make the playoffs next year," Yzerman has said. "We would have loved to have made the playoffs last year, but ultimately we're still trying to put together that core of young guys that is going to be together and start to creep into the playoffs and hang around the playoffs and maybe eventually win. So again, that is the big picture, the long-term plan and we'll stick with that.”

Now, let’s give credit where credit is due. 

Detroit has assembled a deep prospect pool over the last few years. However, as The Hockey News’ Tony Ferrari pointed out, one of their pipeline's biggest weaknesses is a lack of high-impact forwards. Aside from Lucas Raymond, their recent top-10 selections — Marco Kasper and Nate Danielson — don’t project to be first-line players. 

As it stands right now, Detroit’s “core” is highlighted by Dylan Larkin, Alex Debrincat and Raymond up front, along with Moritz Seider and 2021 sixth-overall selection Simon Edvinsson on the backend. That’s certainly a start, although hardly enough for anyone to compare the Red Wings to those championship-winning teams that Yzerman, Nicklas Lidstrom and Pavel Datsyuk were a part of. 

With that in mind, one has to wonder how and why the Red Wings are slated to be the NHL’s fourth-oldest team after being the fifth-oldest team in 2023-24. The same can be said for their salary cap configuration, as they’re one of the NHL’s least cap-efficient teams. And it’s largely because, year after year, for whatever reason, the Red Wings have overpaid depth players in Free Agency.

This year, Yzerman repeated the trend of splurging on second-tier free agents, such as Cam Talbot, Vladimir Tarasenko and Erik Gustafsson. 

Talbot, who signed a two-year, $5-million contract, is a 37-year-old goalie who despite posting a .913 save percentage last year — earning himself an invite to the All-Star Game — faltered at the end of the regular season and into the playoffs. Tarasenko just won his second Stanley Cup with the Florida Panthers, but was deployed in a secondary role, recording just five goals and nine points in 24 playoff games. Yet, for whatever reason, Detroit overbid and is paying him $9.5-million over the next two years. Gustafsson – who carries a cap hit of $2-million per season – adds to the growing list of depth defenders that includes Ben Chiarot and Justin Holl on Detroit’s blueline.

In a crowded and competitive Atlantic Division — four of the top-six teams in the Eastern Conference came out of the Atlantic — Detroit's off-season improvements were not enough to make Florida, Boston or Toronto look in the rear-view mirror. If anything, it brings the same question marks and uncertainty to a team that continues to spin its wheels.

The Wings have been treading in mediocrity over the last few years. Once again, they look like a fringe playoff team, while preaching patience of a rebuild. It’s confusing. 

And for those who are waiting on the Yzerplan to lead to a playoff spot, it's starting to become frustrating.