The Ducks have been searching for offensive answers all season thus far
The Ducks have been searching for offensive answers all season thus far
The Anaheim Ducks are 1-3-0 on their current season-long six-game road trip and their 2024-25 season might be slipping away.
They left for their trip after the best results-based stretch of the season, winning four of six games against teams firmly in possession of playoff spots (Edmonton Oilers, New Jersey Devils, Winnipeg Jets, and Tampa Bay Lightning), narrowly losing a second game against the Oilers in the dying minutes of regulation, and suffering an overtime loss to the Calgary Flames.
From a zoomed-out perspective, it seemed like the Ducks were turning a corner. While outplayed for extended stretches, they found ways to win these tight games against quality opponents, an encouraging sign for any team looking to crawl out of the painful rebuilding process. A look at the underlying metrics paints a different picture, one that renders the extended stretches of being outplayed more concerning and that may have manifested into poor results over the four games to follow.
Takeaways from the Ducks 3-0 Loss to the Capitals
On the current road trip, the Ducks have suffered back-to-back blowout defeats to the St. Louis Blues and Philadelphia Flyers, two shutouts against the Flyers and Capitals, have been outscored 17-5 and outshot 309-249.
In their last ten games, the Ducks have only outshot their opponent once (5-3 win over Edmonton), held an expected goals share of over 50% once (5-3 win over Edmonton), and generated more than two expected goals at 5v5 once (6-2 loss to St. Louis).
“We’re not shooting a ton of pucks. Our goalies have to keep us in every single game and we gotta find ways to score," Ducks forward Alex Killorn said following the Ducks' most recent loss to the Capitals. "We score two goals a game, so it’s got to come from us winning battles, being better in the o-zone, (and) creating more chances. It’s usually not the first chance, but it’s those battles after the first chance. So, (we) just have to grind a little bit on those”
Diagnosing the Ducks' Offensive Struggles
The Ducks and their coaching staff have been attempting to instill a possession-based identity, revolving around funneling pucks to the net and inner slot and winning the ensuing battles. There aren't many instances on a game-to-game basis where one feels they, as a team, pass up opportunities to shoot pucks. They simply don't possess the puck for extended periods in the offensive zone.
They do, however, spend a lot of time defending the cycle in the defensive zone. In years past, the Ducks have been an extraordinarily leaky team, allowing seam passes at will, allowing attackers to get to the inner slot, and losing battles for body positioning and rebounds around the crease.
This year, they've improved in all those facets, but they have had a difficult time killing plays early in their man-coverage scheme and have been hemmed in their zone. They've been forced to chase pucks for elongated shifts, leading to a hampered ability to generate rush chances and ensuing cycles.
This season, the Ducks have generated 2.33 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5v5 (30th in the NHL) and have allowed 3.06 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5v5 (32nd in the NHL).
“We have a hard time scoring. It’s been an issue all year," Ducks head coach Greg Cronin said. "We have to find a way to break through. We have to find a way to produce offense.
“It’s a delicate balance, you don’t want to press too hard to create offense when you know you don’t have a lot of natural offense coming and give up two-on-ones.
"Believe me, as a staff we keep thinking about ways to generate more offense without sacrificing defense. It’s frustrating. I’m sure they feel it, we feel it as a staff. We have to find a way to generate more goals without giving up goals against.”
Ironically, the one game in the last ten in which the Ducks could have been accused of sacrificing defense to generate offense was their 5-3 win over the Edmonton Oilers, the game they handily defeated a Stanley Cup favorite and won both the shots on goal and expected goals battles.
In their victory over Edmonton on Dec. 29, they were confident and comfortable enough in their defensive structure to pressure more heavily and jump lanes to disrupt attacks, trusting teammates to cover and play within their responsibilities. Because of the chances they took defensively, they were able to produce transition opportunities the other way, ultimately leading to positive possession metrics and quality scoring chances.
The Ducks are the worst defensive team in the NHL at 5v5 but are responsible and diligent in their scheme, so exploring a layer of aggressiveness to force turnovers could be a solution to generating more offense.
Another could be to encourage players to keep the puck on their stick in the offensive zone, moving throughout when the flow of play allows and cutting to open ice off the puck. The Ducks continue to funnel pucks and bodies to the crease, primarily from the point, in hopes of winning battles and getting bounces in front.
In the Ducks' most recent 3-0 loss to Washington, the Caps displayed offensive zone tendencies centered around movement with the puck on their sticks, off-puck cuts, activated defensemen, and switches, all with a maintained net-front presence.
With dynamic, young offensive players on the roster like Troy Terry, Leo Carlsson, Pavel Mintyukov, etc., allowing them to operate in space may be another way to break through and produce offensively.
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