The Ducks are near the bottom of most statistical categories and aren't seeing the production they expected
The Ducks are near the bottom of most statistical categories and aren't seeing the production they expected
The Anaheim Ducks (11-14-4) sit in 29th place in the NHL standings but 27th if sorted by points percentage and are near the bottom in nearly every team statistical category, both traditional and underlying.
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Offensively, they are 31st in goals for per game and 23rd in expected goals for per 60 minutes at 5v5 (2.37).
Defensively, they allow the 20th-most goals per game and are in 32nd in expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5v5 (3.13).
Special teams haven't been much better, as they deploy the 29th-ranked power play, converting at a 15.7% rate, and the 28th-ranked penalty kill, killing 72.5% of their penalties.
The numbers will indicate there are a myriad of issues plaguing the team. Watching the team on a shift-by-shift, nightly basis, it becomes harder to pinpoint specific areas of concern.
The Ducks compete hard; they play more connected than they have in several years, with a deeper understanding of their systems and of what's expected. They are more responsible with the puck, aren't exposed as often, and have eliminated a significant amount of the open seams in their defensive zone against the cycle.
They seem to be playing at or near the standard asked of them and are still seeing middling results.
In their last 11 games, they've managed to score three or more goals just three times and have scored a total of 22 goals in that span.
So what's the issue?
It may come down to roster fit versus the way they're attempting to generate offense.
The Ducks' top players and the ones they are expected to rely on when they turn the corner on their rebuild, like Leo Carlsson, Troy Terry, Mason McTavish, Trevor Zegras, Cutter Gauthier, Pavel Mintyukov, Olen Zellweger, etc., are all players with skill sets built to thrive with the puck on their stick as much as possible and creating offense off the rush.
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“I keep looking at our stats, and we’re underperforming offensively," Ducks head coach Greg Cronin said. "I’m surprised our offense hasn’t come. It’s hard to code scoring. The guys that have scoring touches, they are usually able to keep that. (Mason) McTavish has been a scorer, Frankie Vatrano has been a scorer, and when they have that gift, Troy (Terry) is a scorer.
“Some of the guys, when they’re in that rhythm, those go in, and it keeps building that confidence," Cronin continued. "And when you don’t score for a while, I think they start thinking, and maybe they don’t shoot because they don’t have the confidence that they’re going to score, they start passing off.
"It happened a lot earlier in the year; we just kept passing pucks out of the slot to areas that were less high-percentage areas. We’ve kind of limited that now, but I’m hoping we start scoring, and it starts opening up the dam, and it becomes a natural part of our offensive identity.”
It may be as simple as the players tasked with generating goals, for whatever reason, haven't found the back of the net at the rate they were expected to.
The Ducks' systems are constructed to resemble teams like the Los Angeles Kings, Carolina Hurricanes, and Colorado Avalanche, who strive for limited defensive zone time with quick turnovers in their man-to-man defensive zone coverage and creating disruption with a heavy forecheck to generate offense.
In the offensive zone, the Ducks cycle is based around shifting focus, moving pucks from low in the zone to high at the point, funneling pucks and bodies to the net, capitalizing on rebounds, and getting to loose pucks first to start the process over.
The strengths of the Ducks' most important pieces seem to contradict that philosophy. The roster, as constructed, more so resembles the strengths of teams like the Vegas Golden Knights, Dallas Stars, and New Jersey Devils.
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Those teams prioritize generating opportunities off the rush by keeping teams to the perimeter, protecting the middle, and eliminating seams until they cause a turnover before sending numbers out of the zone on the counterattack with possession.
On the cycle, their possession-based offense keeps pucks on the sticks of their best players as they support, weave, switch, and open up lanes for shots or dangerous passes.
The Ducks, while remaining diligent in their man coverage, aren't manufacturing the turnovers they need and are often hemmed in their zone as a result. This has led to a higher volume of shot attempts for opponents and the players on the ice, expelling the majority of their shift energy defending, limiting their own dangerous potential on the counter.
There's no doubt the way the Ducks are attempting to manufacture offense works and has led to Stanley Cups. However, there's more than one way to peel an orange, and one wonders if the potential of the roster is being maximized by the play style and systems they're deploying.
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