How the Ducks Compare and What Can Be Learned from Other Rebuilding Teams
Several teams have gone through the process of transitioning from a rebuilding team to a contending one. What positive and negative lessons can be learned?
Rebuilds come in many shapes and sizes. Each market and situation dictates the starting point and expectations for each team as they transition from rebuilder to contender. However, lessons can be learned from successful ones that yield sustained contenders as can they from those that stall or plateau.
When the Tampa Bay Lightning were transitioning from a rebuilding team to a contending team, they had older stars like Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis in place to ease the transition for players like Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman. The Los Angeles Kings, New Jersey Devils, and Buffalo Sabres have all seemingly hit snags or stagnations in their progress and have or will make coaching changes before the start of the 2024-25 season.
"There are definitely similarities. The differences are that team in Tampa already had established superstars," said Alex Killorn when asked about the Lightning's transition from rebuilding after the 2012-13 season. "We had young guys that had found their role. So I see similarities in terms of these young guys and once they take that step, we'll be a much better team."
Cam Fowler (32) and John Gibson (30) are the only remaining players on the Ducks roster from the team's previous contending iteration.
The Anaheim Ducks have now missed the playoffs and have finished in the bottom 10 of the overall NHL standings for six consecutive seasons.
Ducks General Manager Pat Verbeek has stated his intentions and expectations are shifting for the 2024-25 season. "I want to start to make a push, a strong push, to where we're competing and we're in the conversation of making the playoffs next year," Verbeek said during his exit interview in April.
At such a critical inflection point, what lessons can be taken from other rebuilds around the NHL in the last decade?
Drafting
The cheapest and most effective way to acquire the elite talent necessary to sustain a Stanley Cup contender is through the NHL Entry Draft.
The Ducks have been selected in the top 10 of the NHL Draft every year for the past five seasons. They will be adding another top-five selection to that list at the end of June.
In 2023-24, the Ducks deployed young pieces of their future core in prominent roles. Trevor Zegras (23), Mason McTavish (21), Pavel Mintyukov (20), and Leo Carlsson (19) all played significant minutes when they were healthy. Lukas Dostal (23) and Olen Zellweger (20) toward the end of the season also contributed great impacts this season.
Cutter Gauthier (20) and Tristan Luneau (20) are both expected to play the entirety of 2024-25 with the Ducks in the NHL for their rookie campaigns.
A considerable amount of players intended to make up the core of the Anaheim Ducks when they are contending are already in the NHL and playing in roles they will likely hold for the foreseeable future.
Developing
Pat Verbeek and Ducks’ head coach Greg Cronin don’t seem to believe in a “training wheels” approach to young players in their organization. Many organizations will elect to ease the transition of young players into the NHL by deploying them in lesser roles.
Though they elected to take a unique approach to Leo Carlsson’s rookie season, when he dressed he was the team’s top-line center. Pavel Mintyukov and Olen Zellweger averaged ~19 minutes per night when they played. Lukas Dostal made 38 starts and appeared in 44 games during his rookie season.
Ducks’ management hasn’t taken a “feet to the fire” approach for all of their young players, however. Each player has been given a different development path based on what management feels is best for them. Olen Zellweger, for example, was in the AHL with the San Diego Gulls for the first half of the season, was recalled for four games at the end of January, and was reassigned to the AHL for the month of February before finishing the season with the Ducks for the final month and a half of the season. Other young players like Nikita Nesterenko (23) and Pavol Regenda (24) played a handful of games in the NHL while Drew Helleson (23) and Brayden Tracey (23) played the entire season in the AHL.
Nurturing
When approaching the development of players expected to reach superstardom in their careers, roles and expectations are equally as important as insulation.
Playing all young players together with elevated roles can be a recipe for failure. During the previous two offseasons with Pat Verbeek at the helm, he’s signed a pair of UFA veterans meant to ease the pressure off of inexperienced yet talented players. In 2022, Ryan Strome and Frank Vatrano were signed to five and three-year contracts, respectively. In the summer of 2023, Alex Killorn was signed to a four-year contract and Radko Gudas was signed to a three-year contract.
Ryan Strome and Frank Vatrano played on a line with Mason McTavish for 313 minutes and Trevor Zegras for 92 minutes at 5v5 in 2023-24. Leo Carlsson’s most constant linemate this season was Alex Killorn. Cam Fowler and Radko Gudas played almost exclusively paired with young defensemen like Pavel Mintyukov, Olen Zellweger, Jackson LaCombe, and Urho Vaakanainen.
Final Pieces
Identifying a team’s contending window and core players are two vital aspects of moving forward in a rebuild. Where teams often make mistakes is in acquiring and implementing the final puzzle pieces without hindering the development of the team’s most important players moving forward.
The New Jersey Devils signed defenseman Dougie Hamilton to a seven-year contract in the summer of 2021 and traded for forward Timo Meier at the 2023 trade deadline. The Los Angeles Kings traded for and signed forwards Kevin Fiala and Pierre-Luc Dubois in back-to-back summers (2022 and 2023). The Detroit Red Wings signed forwards JT Compher and Andrew Copp in the summers of 2022 and 2023 and traded for forward Alex DeBrincat in 2023.
The Anaheim Ducks are heading into the summer of 2024 with just over $33 million in cap space, their core pieces playing pivotal roles, and two or three areas Pat Verbeek has stated he intends to address; a top-six right-shot winger, a top-four right shot defenseman, and perhaps a bottom-six forward with “speed and grit.”
During their rebuild, the Ducks have yet to sign an unrestricted free agent to a long-term, big-money contract or trade significant assets for an impact player. They are at the stage of their rebuild where those moves may be necessary to take the next step and those are moves that can greatly sway the direction of the franchise moving forward.
The Ducks are at a critical stage of their climb toward contention and a misstep in judgment when acquiring the final few pieces can set them back several years. On the other hand, a pair of shrewd negotiations to add impactful players can catapult the team to where they want to be.
