Assessing the Bruins’ Performance Within the Atlantic Division

A deep dive into the Boston Bruins’ statistical output and results against the rest of the Atlantic Division.

At 31-9-9, the Boston Bruins are tied atop the NHL standings with the Vancouver Canucks (33-11-5). Boston’s matchup against the Ottawa Senators this past Thursday, a 3-2 overtime win, marked the first between the two teams this season.

With that game, the Bruins have now faced every Atlantic Division opponent at least once in 2023-24. With the help of Natural Stat Trick, let’s take a deep dive into the numbers and assess how the Bruins are playing within the division.

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Last season, the Bruins had a Corsi For Percentage in all situations just a shade above 50 across 26 total games against Atlantic Division opponents (50.82). They dominated possession against teams like Detroit (57.97 CF%) and Ottawa (54.65 CF%), but struggled a bit against Toronto (47.87 CF%) and Florida (47.98 CF%). That said, they won at least two games against all seven teams en route to their record-breaking 65-win season.

This year has been slightly different. The sample size is smaller, but Boston’s Corsi For Percentage against the Atlantic Division in all situations is 47.36. Take out the Montreal Canadiens, against whom the Bruins have a 57.40 CF%, and that dips to 45.39.

In short, the Bruins are generally spending more time in the defensive zone than their opponents in divisional matchups this season. In fact, it’s been a similar case against any opponent regardless of division.

One explanation could be Boston’s 180 power-play opportunities allowed, which is second-most in the NHL behind Anaheim (201), would naturally lead to more time spent in the defensive zone relative to the average team, but even their 5-on-5 Corsi For Percentage against the Atlantic Division (46.71) is lower than what it is in all situations.

The fact that the Bruins have the best record in the Eastern Conference in spite of that says a lot about the way they’ve been winning games, which leads to the next point.

Across all their games against Atlantic Division opponents, the Bruins have been outshot by all but two teams, with one being just about even. Boston has outshot Montreal 108-70 across three games, and Toronto 77-75 through two. In total, they’ve been outshot 538-514 in all situations.

However, they’ve outscored each of the seven division opponents individually, totaling a 67-47 disparity as a whole. The Bruins have scored 18.25 goals above expected against the Atlantic Division in all situations.

Bruins coach Jim Montgomery and some of his players have publicly credited the performances in net by Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark as why they’ve won as many games as they have, and there’s truth to that given the shot numbers compared to the goal numbers.

At the same time, 18.25 goals above expected falls entirely on the guys in front of Ullmark and Swayman. Between players like Charlie Coyle and Trent Frederic stepping up their offensive games, among others, the Bruins are doing more with less against the teams they face more than any other – and who they will face in the earliest parts of the postseason – and that’s a major reason why they’ve been this successful through 49 games.

The only question now is if it’s sustainable.

Other Links:

Boston Bruins Put 6-2 Drubbing On Philadelphia Flyers Ahead Of All-Star Break

Bruins Talk Overcoming Adversity in Win vs. Senators

Bruins Taking Full Advantage of Home Ice