Five keys to the Calgary Flames squeaking into a playoff spot
A perfect 10 will not guarantee the Calgary Flames punch a ticket to the Stanley Cup playoffs, although their chances would be fantastic.
The truth is, it would be a huge surprise if the Flames finished the season by winning their final 10 games starting with Thursday’s home clash against the Vegas Golden Knights.
Even so, the margin for error down the stretch is nearly zero.
Heading into their meeting with the conference-leading Golden Knights, the Flames sit four points behind the Winnipeg Jets for the final Western Conference playoff spot. Based on the tie-breaking formula, Calgary likely needs to pass the Jets or Seattle Kraken, and remain ahead of the Nashville Predators to actually clinch a playoff berth.
Is it likely to happen? No. This is a team whose longest winning streak this season is only three games, which it has done twice.
But it is possible, and that is about all the Flames and their beleaguered fans can cling to right now.
What it will take for the Flames to make a miracle run is multi-faceted, but here are five keys to a playoff ticket:
• Nazem Kadri regaining his first-half form. Sure, much of the focus all season has been the struggles of Jonathan Huberdeau, who has fallen well short of expectations in his first season after being acquired from the Florida Panthers. Kadri has been a huge disappointment for less obvious reasons. Kadri could not have been expected to replicate his numbers from last season while part of the Cup-winning Colorado Avalanche, but his lack of offensive production has been crushing as the level of play has increased. He scored 19 goals prior to going to the All-Star Game and only two in 24 games since, none in the last 16 outings, and also struggled defensively while being sub-standard on faceoffs. Whether it is fatigue from a last season’s Cup run, injuries or not seeing eye-to-eye with coach Darryl Sutter, Kadri has become a non-factor when the Flames have needed him most. He was lured to Calgary with a seven-year, US$49-million contract expecting him to produce and be a leader.
• Jacob Markstrom on top of his game. Markstrom had a strong run of games after he became a father at the end of February. However, that went up in smoke in his last two performances, in which he allowed a dozen goals over 105 minutes and faced 52 shots. Markstrom showed he is capable of stealing a game with his 40-save shutout against the Minnesota Wild a couple of weeks ago, and proved he can hold the fort while his team surrenders too many high-danger chances. Unless he finds his best game and instills confidence in his teammates, nothing else will matter.
• Change the narrative in the third period and overtime. How this club has failed to win a single game when trailing after two periods is a mystery, but that’s not the only aspect destroying their playoff hopes. That brutal 4-12 record in games decided in overtime is unacceptable (6-15 counting shootouts). So is the 15-11-15 mark in one-goal games. To top it off, the Flames have dropped 11 games in which they held a third-period lead. Sure, this club may not have the high-end talent of last season, but they have enough skill to win more often.
• Feast on Dome cooking. Seven of the final 10 games are at home, which should be a good thing until you spy Calgary’s dismal 15-11-11 record at the Saddledome. One aspect to key on would be the power play, which has clicked at 22 percent on the road but only 17.8 percent at home.
• Luck and help. Unquestionably, the Flames are relying too much on shot quantity over quality. Even so, it is mind blowing to think a team that outshoots its opposition by 8.3 shots per game (35.5 for, 27.2 against) will miss the playoffs. And we will not bother to discuss hot many posts/crossbars have been bruised during the season. As for help, the out-of-town scoreboard will be nearly as important as Calgary’s ability to win games.