NHL free agency opens in two weeks on July 1. The Blackhawks have ample cap space and need to keep it that way looking ahead.
How much better will Connor Bedard become over the next two seasons? What will the NHL's leading rookie scorer of 2023-24 be worth when his entry-level contract expires in Summer 2026?
For the Chicago Blackhawks, the best possible answer is "a lot."
That would mean Bedard is living up to projections of becoming hockey's next generational talent. It would mean the Blackhawks have a foundational star to lead them back to the top of the league.
It also would mean Chicago will have to pay Bedard handsomely and want to offer the No. 1 draft pick a nice term on his contract.
The Blackhawks did that with pomp when they locked in Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews on their second contracts in 2010. Both stars got five-year, $31.5 million pacts that paid a $6.3 annual salary and included a $1.5 million bonus.
If Bedard continues to ascend, he probably will be worth more on merit, well beyond inflation.
Blackhawks general manager Kyle Davidson may be more aware of that than any other player personnel matter he faces every day.
UFA Conundrum
So cool it on the UFA shopping list when the season open on Canada Day. The Blackhawks intend on improving dramatically next season, but not at a cost that will harm their longer-term future.
The Blackhawks have almost $33 million in salary cap space as of June 17. It will soon begin to evaporate even without a single free agent signing this summer.
As Davidson often points out, once cap space vanishes, it's hard to get back.
"Looking forward, we can't do something down the road that's eventually going to hurt us," Davidson said. "In that this talent that's coming up, that may or may not be ready for NHL action, we can't do something that's going to hinder our ability to allow them a roster spot when they're ready or when contracts come up to keep those players." See following video
Two-Year Window
Chicago does have some wiggle room on signing UFAs to contracts that don't go beyond two more seasons. That's why Davidson was able to sign forwards Nick Foligno and Jason Dickinson, and goalie Petr Mrazek to two-year extensions last January.
But then, things get murkier.
Alongside Bedard is defenseman Kevin Korchinski. His entry-level deal also runs out in Summer 2026 after his third full NHL season. By that time, will the smooth skating blueliner be playing more like Hall-of-Famer Scott Niedermayer? That's who Luke Richardson compares Korchinski's skill to.
Korchinski is still under a deal that has a $3.7 million cap hit, but comes out to a total $7.7 million AAV thanks to bonuses.
Davidson already locked in defenseman Alex Vlasic on April 25, with a six-year, $27.6 million contract with a $4.6 million AAV and cap hit, plus bonuses.
Down the line, the Blackhawks are loaded with prospects who may become factors in the NHL starting next season. Defensemen Wyatt Kaiser, Ethan Del Mastro and Nolan Allan lead the list. Forward Frank Nazar III could make an impact in a hurry.
None of the Blackhawks' current UFAs will cost much in salary and term if the team decides to retain them. Exclude forward Tyler Johnson wants to go to a contender and is no longer worth the $5 million AAV he had on a seven-year deal from Tampa Bay that just ended.
The most likely UFA Chicago will keep is energy forward Colin Blackwell, who came back with gusto after a rough recovery from hernia surgery. He earned just $675,000 last season.
Taking care of RFA's is another matter. Checking forward Joey Anderson had a solid season is probably is on the "keeper" list. Forwards MacKenzie Entwistle and Taylor Raddysh, a pair of former Toronto Marlie kids from Georgetown, Ontario, may be borderline.
Lukas Reichel is already set, signing a new two-year $2.4 million deal after a disappointing season. Davidson might want to get a leg up on Philipp Kurashev, who had a breakthrough season in 2023-24, notching 18 goals and 54 points as Bedard's usual linemate. His two year contract with a $2.25 million AAV expires in 2025.
Then there's a wild card. Forward Taylor Hall will be back in the fall after recovering from right ACL surgery that limited him to just 10 games last season. If the former Hart Trophy winner returns with a terrific season, what will he be worth at age 33 when his four-year contract with a $6 million AAV expires next summer?
Still, expect Chicago to make one or two free agent signings on or after July 1.
"It's early to say what kind of player we need or what kind of player we can get or anything like that" Davidson said. "Or who's going to be on the team or not on the team. We have to get to the summer, around that draft, free agency time and see who's actually available because that's going to dictate a lot of what we can do."