Diving into the Red Wings' business at the 2023 Draft and speculating about what's next

On Thursday, the Detroit Red Wings concluded their business at the 2023 NHL Draft in Nashville, selecting nine players in rounds two through seven to supplement their two first rounders taken the day prior.  That work left the Wings with an 11-member 2023 draft class.

Executive Vice President and General Manager Steve Yzerman was succinct in his assessment of the two days' work: "We made a few picks, just adding to the pool of prospects.  Hope some of them turn into NHL players that way."

At the NHL level, Detroit also swung a trade with Edmonton to bring in Klim Kostin and Kailer Yamamoto, the latter of whom Detroit bought out this afternoon.

It wasn't a spectacular draft or an exhilarating one, but Yzerman and company brought in an intriguing crop of prospects while beginning the process of improving the '23-24 Red Wings.  Let's dive into the particulars.

The Picks

In the first round, Detroit selected Nate Danielson at 9 and Axel Sandin Pellikka at 17.

The former projects as a 200-foot center, whose skating might provide a path toward unlocking a bit more offensive upside.  He earned a reputation for defense in the rugged WHL, playing for the Brandon Wheat Kings, such that first overall Connor Bedard referred to him as the toughest forward to play against in that league. 

You don't see many 18-year-olds wearing a "C" in the CHL, so the fact that Danielson did speaks to what he can provide off the ice.  Meanwhile, he also led a struggling team in goals and assists, so it feels reasonable that he could improve his offensive game with some more help by his side.

Sandin Pellikka is, by a great distance, the most exciting selection from Detroit's haul.  His skating and puck-handling make him one of this entire draft's most fun players to watch. His offensive toolkit is robust enough to play forward, but his skating from the back end and mastery of the art form of walking the blue line or running the power play makes him an invaluable piece moving forward.

Detroit entered the second round with three picks, one after the other from 41 to 43.

With the first, the Wings selected Trey Augustine, an excellent netminder from the USNTDP who will take his talents to East Lansing to play for Michigan State next year.  

With the NTDP's base of operations a short jaunt down I-96 from Detroit, Yzerman affirmed Augustine is a prospect whom the Wings staff got a great look at: "We watch that team all the time, and in some cases, it's not good to watch them too much because you judge them harder. I thought he played very well—very competitive goalie. He looks good in the net. He moves well; his positioning is good...We think very highly of him."

Director of Amateur Scouting Kris Draper said of Augustine: "He's had an unbelievable two-year run at the development program. He's a guy who's won everywhere he's been. Phil Osaer who runs our goaltending department...kept coming back to Trey."  Draper also pointed to the gold medal game at U-18 Worlds in early May as an illustration of Augustine's composure under pressure.  He added that the Wings' brass knew it wanted a goaltender out of its run of three straight second rounds pick and that Augustine was their target all along.

"I grew up watching games at Joe Louis Arena," said Augustine. "It's pretty special that it kinda comes full circle now. I'm really excited about it."

"It's hard to find goalies, so you have to add em," Draper said. "We were able to get Rudy Guimond later [in the 6th round], a big 6-foot-4 goaltender that has a nice path too that we can be patient with. Obviously, Trey going up to Michigan State, we're gonna get a lot of touches with him."

After taking Augustine, Detroit took Andrew Gibson of the Soo Greyhounds at number 42 and traded pick 43 for numbers 47 and 147.  

Draper described Gibson as a "big right shot d-man."  "Good size, moves the puck well, has a bit of an edge to his game," Draper said. "He was actually off to a really good start this year in the Soo, but he got injured and came back for the U-18s, played for Canada...As you're sitting there, you put your list together, these names start coming fast off the board, and he was a guy we were able to see a lot of playing up in the Soo. A guy that Ontario scout Kelly Harper really liked."

Gibson, listed at 6-foot-3 and 203 pounds, kick-started a trend of Detroit opting for tall, toolsy defenseman.  Gibson was followed by Brady Cleveland (last of the NTDP, next of the University of Wisconsin) at pick 47.  Draper called Cleveland a "big, strong, physical, defensive defender that has an edge, kind of embraces that side of it, was used in a shutdown role and penalty kill situation...He has a bit of a mean streak."

Detroit would then pick Larry Keenan, another 6-foot-3 D, in the fourth round and Jack Phelan (a 6-foot-2 defender from USHL Sioux Falls) in the fifth.  Amongst those selections, the 5-foot-11 Sandin Pellikka is an obvious outlier.  Yzerman downplayed the notion that Detroit consciously sought out big defenders in this draft, saying that he "happened to like these guys as prospects.  It's nice that they're big, if they can play it'll be even better" and that Detroit was just working off its list.

In the third round, the Wings went in a different direction, selecting Noah Dower Nilsson out of Frolunda HC in Sweden.  Detroit had already taken his older brother Liam in the 5th round of the '21 Draft.  Draper highlighted Dower Nillson's strong start to the season, before that campaign was derailed by injury.  "As a seventeen-year-old kid, coming back from injuries is hard," Draper said. "We think he has very good skill and hockey sense. He's a talented kid, he can skate."

"We didn't talk to Liam now," said Yzerman, explaining the process behind the pick. "Between [European scouts] Thomas Carlson, Hakan [Andersson], Nik Kronwall, Nick Lidstrom, they're there right in Sweden. They know the family well; they know the players on and off the ice. It's not like we had to call Liam and say 'tell us about your brother.' First of all, he's gonna say good things [chuckling]. We don't need to really ask the brother."

In the fifth round, Detroit grabbed Kevin Bicker, an intriguing forward from Mannheim, who spent most of last year with Mannheim's U-20 team in the DNL, while making a one-game cameo with the senior squad in the DEL.  Yzerman noted that the Wings' scouting staff got a good look at Bicker at U-18 Worlds and touted his skating, puck skills, and energy.

In many ways, Bicker is the ideal late-round pick: a project to be sure, but one with at least one tool that excites you enough to believe they can complete the long journey to the NHL from deep in the draft.  In Bicker's case, that tool is skating.

For all of Detroit's new prospects, the next stop will be development camp, hosted at Little Caesars Arena between July 1st and 5th.  "For us to get to know them a bit further, get them set up for their off-season, where they're gonna train," said Yzerman of the event's objectives. "Spend a little time with them and talk about some of the areas—whether it's on-ice or off-ice—we'd like them to focus on. Our development camp is more about education than it is conditioning. Mostly just want to spend a few days with them, make sure they're set up...for a good off-season." 

Improving the 2023-24 Red Wings

Going into this draft, we knew Detroit would only be able to do but so much to improve its NHL roster right away in Nashville.  Trades might present themselves, but the Wings weren't picking in any places that would put them in a position to add NHL ready talent.

The one move Yzerman made to address the '23-24 roster was the trade with Edmonton.  Ostensibly, the deal was Kostin and Yamamoto for "future considerations" (read: nothing).  After today's buyout,  we know the deal was really Kostin to Detroit at the cost of taking on Yamamoto's contract, only to buy it out.

Per our friends at PuckPedia, we know that Detroit will save $2.67 million against the cap this season, at the cost of $0.533 million against the '24-25 cap.  The maneuvering leaves Detroit with a shade over $30 million to work with for next season entering free agency.

"Kostin's a big winger obviously; he plays hard, and we were looking to add some of that," Yzerman said of the deal at yesterday's press availability. "Figure out exactly what our plan—I haven't even had a chance to talk to Yamamoto's agent—there is."  The lack of clarity with Yamamoto provided the first hint that Detroit might not perceive him as part of its long-term plans.

It's something of a surprise to see that the Wings didn't keep Yamamoto around or include him in a subsequent trade.  

That Yzerman saw no place for Yamamoto on next season's roster is striking, given Detroit's cap flexibility and need for NHL-caliber forwards.  At 24, Yamamoto hasn't blossomed into the scorer he might have seemed on his draft night, but he is, at the very least, a serviceable middle-six winger.  What now seems clear is that Yzerman's only interest in Yamamoto was as a way station for Kostin.

Oilers GM Ken Holland had been trying to move Yamamoto for some time and was only able to do so by attaching him to a more attractive RFA.  Perhaps the urgency with which Holland had to off-load Yamamoto (or NHL salary of some kind) made it easier for other GMs to demand a lofty return for taking on that money.  

Evidently, Yzerman was also unable to find takers for Yamamoto either, though.  In the end, the market for a small but speedy winger who doesn't score much proved somewhere between limited and non-existent, and the Red Wings decided a buy out was their best bet.

As for Kostin, Yzerman went on to say that "we watched him last year.  He's big, he skated well, and was more involved in the game.  He played on a pretty deep team there in Edmonton, so there's an opportunity for him to take on a bigger role.  We felt like he's showed he can play in the NHL as a regular.  That was our opinion.  How high up the lineup?  We're optimistic that he can work his way into a bigger role with us."

Kostin isn't a spectacular player by any means, but his physicality fills a void within Detroit's forward group.  The below chart from Micah McCurdy of HockeyViz.com shows Kostin as a solid defender, who won't drive any offense worth speaking of.  However, McCurdy's chart also indicates that Kostin has a good shot and will help Detroit get to the power play.  He scored 21 points in 57 games with Edmonton a year ago.

Kostin is an RFA and will need to be re-signed.  There were rumors that his preference was to return to the KHL over re-upping in Edmonton, but Yzerman's comments suggest confidence that the Wings will be able to bring him back to Detroit.

What's Next?

Coming out of the draft, Yzerman made clear that he anticipates a busy next few days but stressed that the team wouldn't make moves for the sake of making them.

"I think we're positioned reasonably well to have the ability with cap space, with draft picks, if we wanna go at it through trade, if we wanna go through free agency, there's options there," Yzerman said. "We're not just gonna spend the money cause we have it. We're not just gonna trade the picks because we have them. We're gonna try to make good decisions, regardless of our cap space...It's hard. If you want young players, which there aren't many of them on the market, you've got to be prepared to pay."

The GM described the free agent market as "kind of thin this year" and expressed a preference for the increased certainty of making trades as opposed to being drawn into a bidding war to procure the services of a UFA.

As priorities, Yzerman mentioned signing at least one goaltender, adding a right shot defenseman, and that "some roster spots open" in the forward ranks leave room for adding to that position group as well.

On the specific subject of adding a scorer, Yzerman said, "I certainly could see a world where we don't. I hope that doesn't happen. I'd like to add some offense...We'll fill some spots...We'd like to add someone, we'll try to do that in some form another and keep our fingers crossed that we can score some more goals."

On that front, the name mentioned around Detroit most often entering the week in Nashville was Senators forward Alex DeBrincat.  Obviously, nothing has come of those rumors to date, but DeBrincat is far from the only big-name player named trade rumors this summer who has not yet found a new home.

As it stands, Sens GM Pierre Dorion made clear his intention to re-coup full value for DeBrincat (as you'd expect him to say), while for Detroit, the potential acquisition seems to swing on just how much pressure DeBrincat might exert on Ottawa to get out of town.

Here, Pierre-Luc Dubois (traded from Winnipeg to Los Angeles, where he signed a fresh eight-year contract, this week) provides an instructive example.  Dubois made clear his intentions to leave Winnipeg at his earliest opportunity, and his agent Pat Brisson went on the record last year about Dubois' affinity for Montreal (his hometown).

It appeared Dubois would be traded to the Habs for a scant price.  How could the Jets demand anything more for a player who had leverage and only one desired destination?  As it turned out, by the time the trade saga concluded, Dubois had broadened his list of acceptable destinations to about five teams.  

This change enabled the Jets to procure a much more significant return in the trade that sent Dubois out of town, grabbing Alex Iafallo, Gabe Villardi, Rasmus Kupari, and a 2024 second.  That might not be everything a promising 24-year-old center is worth, but if there was a discount at work, it wasn't a big one.

So, yes, DeBrincat is from Farmington Hills and rumored to prefer Detroit as his next destination, but that alone doesn't tell us all that much.  Dubois was remarkably bold by NHL standards in facilitating his own exit.  Does DeBrincat have the same appetite for forcing a trade?

Even for all that boldness, Dubois didn't end up at what we all believed to be his desired new home.  From that point, the question begs: Does DeBrincat want to go to Detroit or does he only want to go to Detroit?

A key variable is DeBrincat's $9 million qualifying offer.  To retain his services, Ottawa would have to give DeBrincat (whom Dorion acknowledged intends to test free agency next summer if he isn't dealt this summer) a one-year, $9 million deal.  

That's not an appealing option for anybody when it would usher DeBrincat straight to free agency (and presumably out of Ottawa), while also constituting an over-market deal from a franchise notorious for pinching pennies.

As such, a key question here is whether the Senators are actually willing to keep DeBrincat around for one more year at that price, in hopes that maybe DeBrincat might reconsider Ottawa as a long-term home.

For now, we can't know the answers to those questions, but we will find out soon.