Around the Atlantic: What's Next for the Bruins?

Throughout this week, I'll be working my way from the top to the bottom of the 2022-23 Atlantic Division standings, considering each of the Red Wings' rivals as we enter the business stage of the offseason.  For each team, I'll offer a gloss on the '22-23 campaign, consider its direction of travel (i.e. is this a team on the rise or the decline?), offseason needs, and how each squad's fate impacts Detroit.

We'll get started this morning with the Boston Bruins, winners of the 2023 Atlantic Division and Presidents' Trophy.

Last season, Boston set NHL records with 65 wins and 135 points, 13 wins and 22 points clear of the second-placed Carolina Hurricanes.  That conquering season preceded a blown 3-1 series lead and crushing Game 7 loss at home to the eventual conference champion Florida Panthers.

By Goals For percentage, the Bruins were the best team in the NHL a year ago by some distance, their 63.69% share of five-on-five goals was 7.36% better than second place Seattle.  However, by Expected Goals, Boston wasn't quite such a monstrosity, finishing just sixth in the league (per MoneyPuck.com) with a 53.77% share of five-on-five expected goals.  To be clear, this figure still suggests exemplary even-strength play, but it's more in line with "good playoff contender" than "best NHL team ever," in contrast to the Bruins' raw regular season point total.

In the immediate future, Boston must cope with two major uncertainties in the form of its top two centers: Both Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci are out of contract and may have played their last NHL games.

It's not as though the Bruins can expect to address those pending retirements at the draft, either.  In the three drafts between 2023 and 2025, Boston has just one pick in either the first or second round (a 2025 first).

This will be the easiest answer for the entire Atlantic Division, if only because the bar is so high: The Boston Bruins are trending down.  It simply isn't realistic that the B's can reach a record-setting point total again in 2023-24.

Beyond the uncertainty shrouding Bergeron and Krejci's futures, Boston has some significant UFA decisions to make in Dmitri Orlov, Garnet Hathaway, and most of all Tyler Bertuzzi.

A major variable in Boston's ability to recreate some measure of last year's success is Linus Ullmark, who backstopped the Bruins to 40 of those wins and posted sterling numbers along the way: a .938 SV% and 1.89 GAA.  Those numbers probably aren't sustainable, but they were a driving factor in the Bruins' record-setting season.  Even if he can't quite live up to that standard annually, Ullmark is a strong option in net, whom Boston can rely upon in the short to medium term.

The Bruins also have two elite in-prime talents, secured to long-term deals.  David Pastrnak is one of the best wingers in the NHL, twenty-seven-years-old, and will begin an eight-year, $11.25 million AAV contract this coming season.  Charlie McAvoy is perhaps the best defenseman in the league to have not yet won the Norris.  He is twenty-five and has seven years left on the deal he signed in October 2021 at $9.5 million AAV.

Thanks to the combination of Ullmark, Pastrnak, and McAvoy, the floor for the Bruins is higher than most teams' would be if staring down losing their top two centers in a single offseason.  This team is unlikely to contend for another Presidents' Trophy, but it is also unlikely to fall out of the playoff picture entirely.

What Boston really needs is a time machine to bring back the Bergeron and Krejci of five years ago or so, but, since that is unlikely to happen, the future is a bit murkier.

It's entirely possible (if unlikely) that Bergeron and/or Krejci run it back with the Bruins once more, but there is more than a little reason to doubt whether their performance can live up to their reputations over another full season.  Bergeron was obviously hampered by injury in the first round loss to Florida, and Krejci already retired once to return home for a year in the Czech Extraliga.

The aforementioned dearth of draft picks (along with a largely uninspiring prospect pool) leaves Boston with little choice but to go hunting on the free agent market to boost its depth at center.  Having to depend on free agency to solidify core components of your team is suboptimal at the best of times.  With a weak UFA class coming available July 1, it's an even less desirable outcome than usual this summer.

The Bruins are a team slipping into the playoff race, by which I mean we can no longer pencil Boston in the post-season in October and instead they are likely to have to scrap and claw to assure their spot in the playoffs.

Though I wouldn't call them a lock, Boston finding itself on the outside looking in come April would certainly be a surprise.  Even with major changes likely in store for their opening night lineup, the Bruins should have more than enough firepower to at least get back to the dance.  Still, if Detroit wants to be in a playoff race in February and March, it shouldn't be shocked to see Boston somewhere not too far off on the horizon.

Somewhere along the line, it's also possible that the Bruins are forced to embrace a tear-down rebuild, at which point one of Pastrnak or McAvoy might become an extremely attractive trade target.  Boston won't burn it all down for the upcoming season, but, what if two years from now the Bruins are comfortably out of playoff contention and without a quick path back?  At that point, one of those twin stars might be keen to move on to a more competitive team, and perhaps Detroit could come calling.