Bertuzzi Burns Wings, Third Period Collapse, Compher Line Struggles, Lyon Holds Firm: Red Wings-Maple Leafs Statistical Review
A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings' 3-2 loss to Toronto from Avicii Arena in Stockholm
Yesterday evening in Stockholm, the Detroit Red Wings dropped a bitterly disappointing 3-2 decision to the Toronto Maple Leafs at Avicii Arena.
The loss was not disappointing because of the opponent; there is no shame in losing to the more pedigreed Maple Leafs. Instead, it stings because Detroit controlled the game through 40 minutes and led 2-0 entering the third, only to "come out and play a bit scared on our heels," as Lucas Raymond put it.
Here's a look at the underlying numbers that defined the Red Wings' Swedish collapse.
The Big Picture
-The below chart of each side's cumulative expected goals illustrates the way Detroit controlled this game for 40 minutes, only for the Red Wings to flatline in the third as Toronto surged.
In the first two periods, this was a low-event, tight-checking game, with Detroit in firm control. Through 40 minutes, the Red Wings led 2-0 on the scoreboard and 1.741-0.862 by expected goals (per MoneyPuck.com).
In the third, the Maple Leafs dominated to the tune of a 3-0 advantage on the scoreboard and 2.308-0.369 by xG (with what little Detroit mustered coming primarily in the final two minutes of the game).
-By NaturalStatTrick's accounting, the Red Wings controlled the game at five-on-five through two periods, only to endure a monumental third-period collapse. In that final frame, NST had Detroit at a 35.9 CorsiFor%, a 27.03% share of the scoring chances, a 30.6% share of high danger chances, and a 17.23% share of the expected goals.
When confronted by those figures, it's impossible to dispute Raymond's assessment that the Red Wings were squarely on their heels in the game's decisive moments.
-The below heat map (depicting unblocked five-on-five shots) shows the way the Maple Leafs asserted utter control over the third period and got the win by pillaging the "scoring square" in front of the Detroit net. Both of Toronto's five-on-five goals game from the inner slot, and William Nylander's power play equalizer also came from the slot, if a bit farther out.
As the Red Wings return Stateside and look to correct some of what ailed them in Sweden, it will have to begin with their defensive coverage in the premium areas of the rink.
Individual Impacts
-To add insult to injury for Detroit fans, long-time Red Wing fan favorite Tyler Bertuzzi played an instrumental role in the Leafs' comeback.
Bertuzzi got Toronto on the board just under four minutes into the third off an exemplary Nylander set-up, and he dished a backhand pass to captain John Tavares for the game-winning goal. By individual xG, he was the top Maple Leafs contributor on the night.
-Jake Walman was injured midway through the second, having played just 12:29, which placed the Red Wings' five remaining defensemen under increased pressure. Ben Chiarot led the way in ice time at 23:57, and Olli Maatta (16:29) was the only one of the five healthy Detroit defenders not to crack 20 minutes of ice time.
-Up front, the Red Wings' first and fourth lines did admirable work, while the match-up line centered by J.T. Compher struggled mightily.
The familiar top line of Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, and Lucas Raymond played 10:22 at even strength to the tune of a commendable 58.4% share of on-ice xG. Meanwhile, the fourth line trio of Klim Kostin, Michael Rasmussen, and Daniel Sprong were even better, at a 59.2% share of on-ice xG in 8:33 of work at five-on-five.
Meanwhile, the Compher line (with Andrew Copp and David Perron on the wings) played 7:55 together, much of it against the Leafs' second line of Nylander, Tavares, and Bertuzzi. The trio mustered a dreadful 2.7% share of xG. Of course, the familiar caveat applies when it comes to the noise inherent in any data drawn from a one-game sample size, but a number that extreme is difficult to ignore.
That trio has done admirable work together on the whole in their time together, and, of course, drawing a difficult match-up means inevitably taking on water at some point over the course of a 60-minute game, but that degree of suffering—even against a formidable opponent—is far from ideal, to state the obvious. As the Red Wings search for answers following their return to the States, perhaps one solution may be separating Compher and Copp to once again man their own lines.
-The obvious bright spot for Detroit came in between the pipes in the form of Alex Lyon. The Yale product faced 3.165 xG and conceded three goals against for a Goals Saved Above Expected of 0.17. As Derek Lalonde put it, "Alex was excellent...I think that's a big part of his performance tonight, just looking confident and giving our guys confidence."
To Lalonde's point, there was a poise and composure to Lyon's game that seems to be absent in that of Ville Husso and James Reimer, even when those two are playing well. Given that Lyon pulled that off having not faced live game action since the preseason, it's hard to make a case against the 30-year-old getting some more starts in short order as the season progresses.