Detroit Red Wings 2023-24 Projection: Three Keys to the Season and Worst Case Scenario

What has to go right for the Red Wings to make strides in the Atlantic? What's most likely? What's the worst case scenario?

Last year: 35-37-10, 7th in the Atlantic Division (missed playoffs for seventh consecutive season)

Projected (by Kevin, a deep learning model built by The Hockey News' Rachel Doerrie): 7th in the Atlantic

Kevin's full Atlantic Projections  (plus write-ups from the rest of the THN's Atlantic Writers:

(1) Toronto Maple Leafs

(2) Boston Bruins

(3) Florida Panthers

(4) Tampa Bay Lightning

(5) Buffalo Sabres

(6) Ottawa Senators

(7) Detroit Red Wings

(8) Montreal Canadiens

1. Newly Acquired Depth Provides Added Stability Across Line-Up: The talk throughout Red Wings training camp—from players, coaches, and executives—has emphasized the significance of off-season acquisitions like Alex DeBrincat, J.T. Compher, and Jeff Petry.  Detroit knows because of its poor lottery luck there is a certain class of elite player it can't add.  Instead, Red Wings brass is banking on the idea that the deepest Detroit team since Steve Yzerman returned as GM can make progress in the Atlantic, even without a top-of-the-draft prospect leading the way.

2. Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Larkin Click Straight Away: It's no secret that the Red Wings need to score more than they did in 2022-23, and the Michigan-born duo of DeBrincat and Larkin will be central to making that happen.  The Red Wings believe a year ago they could hang in games with anybody but struggled to grab the goal they needed to push themselves over the top.  DeBrincat (and, to a lesser extent, Daniel Sprong) came to Detroit to help solve that problem, and the Red Wings will also be hoping that the diminutive winger can help push Larkin above the point-per-game threshold for the first time in his career.

3. Ville Husso Thrives in His First Season as an Unquestioned Number One Goaltender: A year ago, injuries forced Detroit to play Husso more than they had intended, and his performance suffered (.896 SV%, 3.11 GAA).  This year, Husso enters as the team's definitive number one option, and Derek Lalonde is counting on somewhere between 55 and 60 starts out of the Fin.  For Detroit to be successful, Husso will need to make the most of that opportunity.

The most likely scenario, unfortunately, is that Detroit does make strides in the division and the additions do make the Red Wings a more consistent team, but that such progress proves insufficient to slip into the playoffs out of the lion's den that is the Atlantic.

DeBrincat can't return to his more prolific Chicago form, Husso struggles, and the off-season additions can't move the needle to any significant degree in the Atlantic but do preclude growth from some of Detroit's top prospects (most notably, Simon Edvinsson and Marco Kasper).  The Red Wings can't make progress on last year's Atlantic playoff teams, but the true nightmare would come if Detroit looks decidedly behind the division's other up-and-comers (Buffalo and Ottawa).