A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings' 3-0 victory over Philadelphia on Thursday night in Detroit
A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings' 3-0 victory over Philadelphia on Thursday night in Detroit
Last night, the Detroit Red Wings shut out the Philadelphia Flyers for a 3-0 victory on home ice over a direct rival in the Eastern Conference playoff chase. For a closer look at how this game was decided, let's take a look at the underlying numbers.
The Big Picture
-By all situations expected goals (per MoneyPuck), Philadelphia edged out the Red Wings 2.96-1.64. The five-on-five numbers from Natural Stat Trick reinforce the sense that the Flyers controlled play. Per NST, Detroit earned just a 34.48% CorsiFor, a 33.33% share of scoring chances, a 25% share of high-danger chances, and a 31.7% share of xG (all numbers for five-on-five).
Plainly, none of that is very impressive for the Red Wings, but it's worth acknowledging the context in which those numbers were accumulated. An essential piece of context here is Philadelphia's penchant for a low event, defensive style of play and the relevance of game tate to the the final ~30 minutes of hockey last night.
In Philadelphia in mid-December, the Flyers blanked Detroit 1-0 in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the one-goal margin would suggest. Philadelphia smothered the Red Wings, and, despite only creating a one goal separation, it was clear that the Flyers were at total ease in a game where Detroit could hardly manage to create any offense at all.
That's about what the first period (which featured just 13 combined shots on goal between the sides) looked like on Thursday. However, in the early stages of the second, the Red Wings took full advantage of what little offensive opportunities they had to build a 3-0 advantage by the 10:08 mark of the frame.
With 8:48 left in the period, Sean Couturier was denied on a rebound chance that brought the Flyers—newly down 0-3—to 2.306 xG for the night. They would manage just 0.654 xG over the remaining 28:48 of hockey.
That is a testament to the quality of Detroit's defensive effort to close the game out, and it's also a reminder of the importance of game state. With a lead, the Red Wings could focus on their own defensive game and suddenly low event hockey suited Detroit perfectly, while the Flyers were forced out of their comfortable defensive shell to chase the game, which they couldn't find a way to do successfully.
So, despite driving very little offense by volume (as the below heat map shows), the Red Wings were able to earn a pivotal victory over a direct rival for an Eastern playoff spot with decisive finishing to build a lead (perhaps a bit fortunate) and sound defense to manage and see out that lead (the exact sort of thing they'll need to keep doing to emerge from the crowded Atlantic Division into the postseason).
Individual Impacts
-To start with the obvious, this was an excellent bounce back night from Alex Lyon in net: 30 shots, 30 saves. After he wasn't at his sharpest against Dallas (in an admittedly adverse environment based on the Red Wings' defensive effort), Lyon was outstanding, facing 2.96 xG's worth of threat and turning it all away for 2.96 Goals Saved Above Expected.
It was a great example of the steadiness Lyon brings to the crease—helping to manage the game with his puck-handling and relative aggressiveness in freezing the puck to stall whatever momentum Philadelphia found in the offensive zone.
-The Red Wings' first line of Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, and Lucas Raymond was outstanding. In 8:55 together, they out-chanced their opponents 0.931-0.342 by xG and outscored them 2-0. That unit was the only Detroit line to create any meaningful offense on Thursday, and while they benefitted from a fortunate bounce on the second goal (which came when Moritz Seider attempted a pass to DeBrincat that banked off a Flyer stick and in), they earned that good fortune by controlling play consistently.
-Speaking of Seider, his pair with Jake Walman had the kind of night we've grown to expect from that duo of late: dealing with a difficult match-up, absorbing pressure in the defensive zone, and coming out generally unscathed.
Seider-Walman played 12:37 at five-on-five, much of it against Couturier's line, and despite being out-chances by xG 0.142-0.741, they were on the ice for one goal while not conceding.
Shayne Gostisbehere and Justin Holl had a similar night together. They played 10:43 at five-on-five, suffering an 0.502-1.477 disadvantage in xG but securing a 1-0 edge in actual goals.
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