The Red Wings are getting unexpectedly dependable production from Alex Lyon, but should they try to get a more proven goaltender? Let's think it through.

No one expected Alex Lyon to be this good.

The third best goalie in the NHL by save percentage, a 13-6-2 record and .443 goals saved above expected per 60 — all as a goalie who most expected would spend as much time driving back and forth from Grand Rapids as he would in the crease. And yet, Lyon has cemented himself as a pillar of the Red Wings’ success this season.

But is this Lyon’s breakout season at 31 years old, or is it a hot streak that’s bound to end sometime?

The answer to that question could drive Detroit’s decision-making from now until the upcoming March 8 trade deadline. That’s the last day that the Red Wings can find an external goaltending solution by acquiring a goalie from another team. So, in anticipation of that deadline, let’s think through what whether Detroit should pick up a goalie?

To be clear from the start, finding a goaltender who eclipses Lyon’s performance to date will prove difficult. Most of the goaltenders who are performing better than Lyon are manning the crease for other playoff-bound teams. Such teams are unlikely to part ways with a goaltender who gives them a chance to make a playoff run — at least not without significant compensation in return. A more proven goalie would assuage some concerns, but they have to come at the right price, too.

In the case of goaltenders who rank above Lyon in goals saved above expected (I use this because it’s more indicative of individual contributions than traditional goalie stats), Calgary’s Jacob Markstrom seems to be the only real option who's both a proven starter and producing at a higher level than Lyon. He has also been linked to trade talks since before the All-Star break.

But with other teams like New Jersey and Carolina also looking for a true starting goaltender for the playoffs, the cost of such an acquisition is likely to be expensive. The Red Wings would have to enter a bidding war to get Markstrom, an endeavor they could avoid if they think Lyon will keep up his success.

Detroit could also assemble a package to try and pick up Jeremy Swayman from Boston. He's part of an elite Bruins tandem alongside Linus Ullmark, but the Bruins might choose to move on of those goaltenders to strengthen the overall roster. Swayman signed a one-year deal negotiated through a messy arbitration process over the summer and is now a pending RFA this offseason. Thus, he seems like the odd man out in net. 

Acquiring Swayman would take significant assets, though, something that comes with the territory of an upgrade. Those assets aren't likely to be prospects or draft picks with the Bruins contending for the Stanley Cup. Their metaphorical window is wide open right now, and they'll try to brace their roster with depth for a deep run. As Detroit tries to prepare its own roster to succeed in the playoffs, moving some of the assets that would contribute to its own run might weaken the overall roster.

But maybe the Red Wings don’t have to trade for someone who's already more productive. Maybe it makes more sense for them to acquire a former starter who’s having a tough season. In that case, they might be suitors for Columbus goaltender Elvis Merzlikins. He has struggled the past two seasons, including a span this season in which a “coach’s decision” by Pascal Vincent left him the third man out in the Blue Jackets’ goalie rotation. Maybe the classic change in environment could reinvigorate the Latvian goaltender.

Considering his $5.4 million cap hit until 2027, there’s a whole lot of risk in such a move, essentially banking on Merzlikins reverting back to his starting from two seasons ago due to an environment change. That’s not a worthwhile bet, by my estimation, especially since Detroit already has a goaltender in such a situation — Ville Husso.

A player who started last season on a hot streak to begin the year, Husso’s play nosedived due to what seemed like overuse on the back half of the season. He is posting a .893 save percentage and 9-5-2 record so far this season, and he lost the starting gig to Lyon due to a combination of personal leave and injury. As he reenters the lineup after the All-Star break, Husso is Detroit’s backup goaltender right now, but he has the opportunity to win back his starting role if he can outshine Lyon in whatever start allotment head coach Derek Lalonde gives him. 

As much as we can theorize whether the Red Wings should pick up Markstrom or Merzlikins, any moves to acquire a goaltender have to consider the future of the net in Detroit, too. Goalie prospect Sebastian Cossa is excelling in Grand Rapids as of late and seems destined to be the Red Wings’ future starter should he continue his progression. In the NCAA, 2023 second-rounder Trey Augustine is having a scorching year for Michigan State after winning World Junior gold with Team USA. He figures to be a goaltending solution further down the line. It must be said that goaltending development can be fickle, though, and there’s no real way to predict when Cossa or Augustine might be impactful at the NHL level.

So while goaltending might seem like a concern if Lyon can’t keep producing, it does not project to be a long term issue. That could prevent the Red Wings from moving many assets toward getting a goalie, especially when Lyon is still producing at a high level. Detroit has shown ample patience, choosing not to buy at the deadline by giving up future impact players.

All in all, it seems as though acquiring a goaltender falls more in the category of luxury than necessity for Detroit. Lyon has produced at a level among some of the best goaltenders in the league, no matter if that exceeds expectations or not. While a goaltender with better credentials might help Detroit, it’s getting high-level play from Lyon right now. Balancing the cost of an upgrade, the Red Wings are better off sticking with Lyon and keeping a strong team around him .

No matter how sustainable Lyon’s production might be or whether such performance was expected, all that matters is that the Red Wings get it.

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