Statistical Review: Red Wings 2, Canadiens 3 (OT)
A dearth of chance creation, the fourth line sets the standard, Walman & Seider struggle, and other takeaways from the underlying numbers in last night's Red Wings OT loss to Montreal
Last night saw the Detroit Red Wings suffer a disappointing 3-2 overtime loss on home ice at the hands of the Montreal Canadiens.
For the first time all season, the Red Wings lost to a team that did not qualify for the postseason in 2023, adding an extra sting to a performance in which Detroit struggled to muster much of anything. After the game, head coach Derek Lalonde summated the night by saying, "all in all, just didn't feel like we had a lot of jump tonight."
For a better sense of where it went wrong, let's take a stroll through the underlying numbers from last night's loss.
The Big Picture
-By all situations xG (as tabulated by MoneyPuck), the Red Wings were beaten 2.8-2.14 by their guests. Meager though that 2.14 figure is for Detroit, it's perhaps even a bit flattering considering that 0.61 of it (~28.5% of the night's total output) came on Christian Fischer's second period goal—which deflected in off his glove from point blank range.
-The below map of the game's scoring chances reinforces the sense that Detroit simply didn't generate enough offense to earn the result it wanted.
While Montreal was able to find quality chances in the inner slot, those opportunities were (Fischer's goal excepted) few and far between for Detroit. With that said, Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat (twice) each had quality overtime looks from the high slot, which could have flipped the result on its head had they found their mark. Still, that scoring chance chart suggests that the Red Wings were a bit too content with shooting from distance as opposed to creating higher quality looks.
-Per Natural Stat Trick, this was another night of suffering at five-on-five for the Red Wings, who posted a 47.5% CorsiFor, a 41.38% share of scoring chances, a 40% share of high-danger chances, and a 45.7% share of xG.
Individual Impacts
-In individual xG contributions, Christian Fischer led the way (again based on his point-blank goal), with Lucas Raymond and Alex DeBrincat the next two Red Wings up (though neither of their totals were anything to write home about).
-The fourth line was (by far) Detroit's most productive group at five-on-five. Fischer, Michael Rasmussen, and Klim Kostin posted 0.72 xGF (a team high), while allowing 0.215 xGA for a 77.0% xG share. Fischer scored for the trio, and they did not concede.
The next best line in terms of chance creation (by xGF) was Joe Veleno, J.T. Compher, and Andrew Copp at just 0.159. The top line (Larkin, DeBrincat, and Lucas Raymond) managed just 0.103 xG on the night (though again, Larkin and DeBrincat were more dangerous than that in 3-on-3 OT).
Simply put, that's enough offense to win far more often than not.
-Last night was another difficult night for Moritz Seider and Jake Walman at five-on-five. In 9:28 together, they were on the ice for just 0.136 xGF and 0.47 xGA for a meager xG share of 22.5%. The Red Wings best D pair on the night was Ben Chiarot and Jeff Petry at just a 48.7% share of on-ice xG.
As ever, one game samples for expected goals will lead to some extreme results that might not be a fair reflection of reality. However, when you look at the results over the last two weeks or so, it feels a good deal like it might be time to shake up the arrangement of the defense corps, and that might have to start with splitting up Seider and Walman.
We know those two have excellent chemistry, and that they can do excellent work together, but things aren't clicking on the back end right now, so splitting them up might be the best way to effect some meaningful change.
-Finally, in net, James Reimer gave up three goals on 2.798 xG for a -0.2 Goals Saved Above Expected (per MoneyPuck). That negative figure is probably a bit harsh on Reimer's overall performance. Maybe you would have liked a save on the second Montreal goal (from Nick Suzuki), which came early in the third, but Reimer avoided the "soft goal" trap that has plagued both Red Wing netminders in recent games.
However, Reimer did hurt his team a great deal with his penalty on Cole Caufield in overtime, which set the stage for Caufield's eventual winner. It would be too harsh to say that play cost Detroit the game (especially when, as we've noted, the Red Wings accomplished so little at five-on-five), but it put all of the team's hopes on a successful PK and stealing the extra point in the shootout, and the Wings couldn't pull that off.
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