Statistical Review: Red Wings 5, Senators 2

On Saturday afternoon, the Detroit Red Wings bested the Ottawa Senators 5-2 at the Canadian Tire Centre in the Canadian capital.

It was hardly an overwhelming performance from the victorious visitors, with excellent goaltending and a lethal power play more responsible for the win than the team's effort at even strength throughout the game.

Let's take a look at some of the underlying numbers that defined the afternoon.

The Big Picture

-Detroit was out-shot, bested in the face-off circle, out-hit, and forced into another shin pad-denting game of shot blocking.  However, the most basic way to understand the Red Wings' road to victory is their 3/5 performance on the man advantage, juxtaposed with Ottawa's 1/6 effort.

-Though they were out-shot by some distance, Detroit did win the afternoon's xG battle 3.84-3.32, per MoneyPuck.com.  

The chart below shows the two sides' all situations scoring chances from the game. 

As you can see, Ottawa produced a much greater volume of chances, but the Red Wings were able to concentrate their efforts on premium opportunities in the inner slot, which produced all five goals.

Goals in the NHL are scored far more often than not from the home plate area around the net, and Detroit did a good job of creating chances in that premium ice and also capitalizing on those chances.

To be sure, it's not as though Ottawa was totally dependent on shot volume. They too generated quality looks from the "scoring square" in front of the net. That's where Ville Husso came in, with his best performance (by the numbers) of the young season.

-Of course, it must be said that the Red Wings were heavily dependent on their power play in separating themselves from the Sens Saturday afternoon.  

Natural Stat Trick had Detroit at a 44.38% share of five-on-five expected goals.  The good news on that front is that the Red Wings improved on this metric as the game progressed.  In the first period, things were rather woeful (21.91%).  In the second, they got a bit better, but it was mostly the power play putting in work, not the Red Wings' five-on-five game (41.72%).  Finally, Detroit played its best even-strength period in the third (61.54%).

-Saturday wasn't Detroit's first foray into an 11 forward/seven defensemen alignment, but it might have been the occasion on which the inevitable mixing and matching from odd numbers up front and on the blue line was on clearest display.

Amongst the forwards, only two lines played more than 7:00 minutes at five-on-five.  Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, and Lucas Raymond played 8:01, and Michael Rasmussen, Andrew Copp, and J.T. Compher were not far behind at 7:49.  However, for the most part, there was a lot of juggling throughout the forward group.

David Perron's five-on-five ice time and line-mates offers an example of this dynamic.  His most frequent running mates were Joe Veleno and Daniel Sprong (4:08), but he also shared 2:16 with Veleno and Christian Fischer, 1:19 with Larkin and Raymond, 1:18 with Austin Czarnik and Fischer, 0:44 with Larkin and DeBrincat, 0:28 with Compher and Copp, 0:15 with Compher and Fischer, and 0:10 with Compher and Raymond.

On the one hand, this is a reminder of what Red Wing players and coaches have said throughout the season: Perron can fit in with just about anybody.  However, it also shows the "hot hand" nature of juggling 11 forwards, which will inevitably create a greater number of line combinations over the course of 60 minutes.

To be sure, some measure of in-game juggling happens even with the more standard 12 forwards, whether because of post-special teams shifts, a hot line late in the period, an awkward shift change, or any number of other factors.  Still, the 11/seven approach clearly invites more of this variation.

-On the back end, it was a similar picture.  Jake Walman and Moritz Seider led the way in five-on-five ice time as a defense pair at 11:12.  Ben Chiarot and Jeff Petry were second at 6:57.  No other Red Wing pair played five minutes together.

Olli Maatta and Justin Holl, Shayne Gostisbehere and Maatta, Gostisbehere and Holl, Chiarot and Holl, and finally Maatta and Petry all played between two and five five-on-five minutes together.

Individual Impacts

-Gostisbehere was fifth among Red Wing defensemen in all situations ice time (16:30), but he took full advantage of those minutes.  The former Hurricane, Coyote, and Flyer led the way in individual xG for Detroit (0.67), and he scored a goal while also providing an assist (both on the power play).

Derek Lalonde has pushed back on the notion that there is a pure rotation right now among Red Wing defensemen when it comes to who will sit when Detroit uses the standard six D.  It's clear that Seider and Walman are not going to be scratched, at least for the moment, while Petry, Holl, and Maatta have each sat at different points in the season's early days.

When you look at the success of the Red Wing power play as well as just how important Gostisbehere has been to the unit, it's hard to imagine him as a healthy scratch any time soon.

-In goal, Ville Husso provided his best statistical performance of the season.  Faced with 3.316 xG (per MoneyPuck), he conceded just twice.  He faced tons of pressure in the first period, and, even as the Red Wings took control in the second, Ottawa kept creating chances.  Against all of that, Husso stood firm.

With Detroit playing the second leg of a back-to-back this evening, Husso will yield the crease to James Reimer.  His excellent performance in Ottawa means he certainly earned a night off from starting duties.

-Lucas Raymond was second on the Red Wings in both five-on-five ice time and xGF% yesterday afternoon.  His 12:58 at even strength trailed only Compher (just six seconds ahead at 13:04), and his 62.06 xGF% trailed only Austin Czarnik (who played half as much at five-on-five as Raymond).

The 21-year-old winger has been earning more minutes with his skating and intensity, and though he didn't record a point, Raymond was excellent again Saturday afternoon.

-On the back end, both Maatta and Holl delivered strong performances in their own right.  

Maatta played 11:48 at five-on-five and produced an exemplary 60.17 xGF%.  As also applies to Raymond, this is an especially impressive feat considering the fact that Detroit decidedly took the worst of the game's five-on-five play as a whole.

Holl, meanwhile, led Detroit defenders in five-on-five ice time at 12:37, and he produced a commendable 52.58 xGF%.  Once again, that number comes in a game in which the Red Wings were badly beaten in five-on-five xG share as a whole.

Meanwhile, Holl also delivered 5:16 valuable minutes on the PK, during which he conceded just two high danger chances to Ottawa.  Special teams were the major distinguishing factor Saturday, and the former Maple Leaf deserves credit for his contributions in that regard.

-The Red Wings got another excellent PK performance from J.T. Compher.  Compher played 4:52 at four-on-five, and he conceded just one high danger chance in that duration.  He also delivered an xGF% that was 26.99% better than his team's average down a man.

Unlike some of the Red Wings other offseason additions, Compher's contributions haven't been flashy, but there can be no doubt that he has added significant value to his new team.