Statistical Review: Red Wings 6, Flames 2

The Detroit Red Wings steam-rolled the Calgary Flames Sunday evening, earning a 6-2 victory on home ice at Little Caesars Arena.  Alex DeBrincat continued to carry the heaviest share of the offensive freight, scoring a hat trick and adding an assist to leap into the NHL's scoring lead.  Meanwhile, James Reimer earned his second win in as many starts as a Red Wing.

Though the scoreline wasn't close, this was a game Detroit seized with its finishing rather than its control at five-on-five.  For a clearer picture of what that looked like, let's dive into some numbers from the game.

-Against Calgary, the Red Wings were outshot 31-30, but ultimately, an exemplary night of finishing was enough to best the Flames.

Per MoneyPuck.com, Detroit lost the xG battle 2.45-2.3, but for a more focused picture of the match-up, it's worth taking a look at the period by period progression.  However you slice it, six actual goals on 2.3 expected goals suggests an excellent evening of chance conversion, if not chance creation.

The Red Wings were excellent in the first, scoring twice on 1.179 xG, while yielding just 0.858 xG to Calgary.  In the second, Detroit scored twice once again but did so on just .505 xG, while the Flames generated two goals of their own on 1.021 xG.  In the third, the Red Wings scored twice in the first three minutes and 44 seconds on just .219 xG.  Their full period total was 0.618, compared to 0.573 for Calgary.

In other words, Detroit consistently outscored its expected goals throughout the game and controlled play in the first and third periods.  However, Calgary was the better team in the second and perhaps unfortunate not to emerge from that period with a lead.

The Red Wings can thank their finishing talent and goaltending for that advantage.

-Though all six Red Wing goals came at five-on-five (as opposed to the team's relative power play dependence the day before in Ottawa), Detroit did not exactly dominate the game.

Per Natural Stat Trick, the Red Wings were close to Calgary when it came to scoring chances, but the Flames drove far more dangerous opportunities for themselves.  At five-on-five, the site had Detroit at a 47.06% share of scoring chances (not great, but probably enough to win on most nights if the finishing and goaltending are dialed in).  However, the Red Wings were down at 31.25% in terms of high danger chances and a 35.59% share of xG (both figures for five-on-five and from NST).  

The below heat map paints a similar picture.  Detroit wasn't far off the pace in chance creation, but Calgary was slightly better in terms of volume and a good deal better when it came to quality.

-Just five Red Wing skaters emerged from the evening with greater than a 50% share of on-ice xG at five-on-five: the top line of Dylan Larkin, DeBrincat, and Lucas Raymond and Justin Holl and Ben Chiarot on the back end.  Everyone else was below 40% in that regard.

-DeBrincat was the embodiment of the Red Wings' prolific night of finishing.  He led the way for Detroit in terms of individual xG (0.58) and parlayed those limited chances into three goals.

By Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score metric, DeBrincat can now claim the two best single-game performances of the season—the first in Detroit's home opener against Tampa and the second coming last night against the Flames.

His Red Wing tenure could hardly be off to a better start.

-At five-on-five, the top line was the only one to do much damage to speak of.  In 11:48, DeBrincat-Larkin-Raymond managed 0.704 xG.  Rasmussen-Copp-Copmher mustered just 0.134 xG in 9:35, Fischer-Czarnik-Berggren produced merely 0.011 xG in 9:15, and Perron-Veleno-Sprong managed only 0.245 in 8:18.

Even that top line figure is modest, considering the Red Wings scored six times.  It's inevitable that Detroit experiences some measure of regression from its torrid start.  Without wishing to seek out black clouds on the horizon, it is more than unlikely that the Red Wings won't finish the year scoring an even 5.00 goals-per-game and converting on 39.1% of their power plays (first and second in the league, respectively).

That's not to say Detroit can't be a much improved or even top tier offensive team, but scoring this often isn't sustainable.

The obvious source of potential regression is the team's finishing.  Through six games, the Red Wings lead the league at a 14.07% shooting percentage.  By the end of 82 games, that number will dip; the question is by how much.

-I think it's worth spending a moment on the role of Detroit's second line: J.T. Compher, Andrew Copp, and Michael Rasmussen.

On Friday afternoon, before the Red Wings travelled north of the border to Ottawa, Derek Lalonde said of the trio, "they're obviously all three very good players, but they're 200-foot players, and they're proud 200-foot players."

"It wasn't an exact match-up the other night with how much Pittsburgh was playing Crosby and Malkin—they were chasing all night, so couldn't get them out all the time.  But right after the Columbus game, that line came and asked me for Crosby, so I just think it's a mentality of who they want to be out to be and what they are."

While the top line has taken off on the strength of its creativity off the rush, Detroit's second line brings a different style.  They rely on the cycle and forecheck to play a heavy down-low game, and, as Lalonde pointed out, they pride themselves on their ability to manage the challenge of an opponent's top gunners as much as they do on their own offensive game.

When you play that role, you are bound to suffer a bit in terms of possession numbers.  Despite your best efforts, an opposing team's top players will inevitably create some amount of offense.  However, limiting those chances and forcing play in the other direction remains paramount.

Against the Flames, that dynamic was on full display.  By xG share, Rasmussen-Copp-Compher was down at just 27.74%.  However, they matched up with Calgary's top line and overall did great work to restrict that unit's opportunities.

Per Natural Stat Trick, Copp was on the ice for 6:16 at five-on-five against the Flames' top center Elias Lindholm.  While it was a quiet offensive night for Detroit's second line, they held the Lindholm unit under tight control.

Lindholm's line (with Adam Ruzicka and Matt Coronato) finished the game having created just 0.137 xG.  It was Calgary's second and third line that created far more with Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri, and Dillon Dube registering 0.81 xG and Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund, and Blake Coleman posting 1.056 xG.

The Red Wings' second line might not be lighting it up offensively, but they've clearly found their niche as a shutdown unit in the season's early stages.

-Finally, in his second start as a Red Wing, James Reimer was once again sharp.  He yielded two actual goals on 2.45 expected goals and helped Detroit endure middling five-on-five results.

Through two starts as a Red Wing, Reimer has saved 2.3 goals above expected, per MoneyPuck.  With his continued strong form, the path to game action for Alex Lyon would seem to be growing longer and longer.