Jake Guentzel is reportedly on the trading block in Pittsburgh. Ahead of the trade deadline, let’s take a look at whether he might fit in with the Red Wings.
Jake Guentzel is reportedly on the trading block in Pittsburgh. Ahead of the trade deadline, let’s take a look at whether he might fit in with the Red Wings.
For the first time in a long time, the Red Wings are poised to be buyers at the trade deadline this season. And with that comes a whole host of options.
One such option is Jake Guentzel, who the Pittsburgh Penguins are reportedly offering up as their offseason reload didn’t go as planned. Considering Detroit’s apparent desire to beef up the forward corps, perhaps there’s a fit with Guentzel due to his scoring knack so long as the Red Wings aren’t a part of the Nebraskan winger’s 12-team no-trade list.
Guentzel’s credentials are lengthy. He’s nearly a point-a-game player in his career, including 22 goals and 52 points in 50 games this season. He has generated an on-ice expected goals percentage of 64.8%, which ranks highest in his career despite being snake-bitten for one of his lowest goal-scoring seasons since he broke into the league. Speaking of that breakout, Guentzel’s 21 points in 25 games helped Pittsburgh win the 2017 Stanley Cup in part due to his scoring surge. Not only is Guentzel a talented scorer, but he can do so when the lights get bright.
Such production stems from Guentzel’s ability to play a deceptive style and sneak into open space, but he isn’t a one-trick pony. The Athletic’s Jesse Marshall wrote a brilliant piece on the varied contributions of Guentzel during the 2021-22 season. While it’s a little outdated, one of the key takeaways I found was that Guentzel is a willing forechecker who recovers dump-ins and generates offense from the forecheck. In other words, he’ll fit right in with Detroit coach Derek Lalonde’s system if given the opportunity.
For Detroit, the benefits are obvious. Guentzel would bring a whole lot of finishing to a roster that has largely scored goals by committee. His 22 goals on a down year would rank second among the Red Wings’ forwards. While their roster includes lots of depth scoring — 11 skaters have notched 10+ goals, the most of the NHL — it isn’t full of elite shooters like Guentzel has been in his prime. Perhaps joining a deeper Red Wings team could rekindle his scoring touch, placing another talented shooter behind Alex DeBrincat. Such depth bodes well for a deep playoff run, which is ultimately Detroit’s goal.
Similar to his shot, Guentzel would bring some valuable experience with him, too. He’s spent the past eight seasons working with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin — both of whom, by the way, are not on the trading block. Under that tutelage, Guentzel has also learned what it takes to win in the playoffs, even if the past few Pittsburgh outings were one-round forays. Considering that general manager Steve Yzerman has focused on bringing veterans into the locker room, it feels as if Guentzel fits that bill at the right price.
Therein lies the sticking point: how much is Guentzel really worth to the Red Wings compared to his market value? He’s certainly an upgrade, but trading him would probably take significant assets — especially draft capital and young prospects. Additionally, trading for him would take some roster shuffling because Detroit is already up to 23 players due to its goaltending triumvirate. And with a $6 million price tag, picking up Guentzel would likely mean additional payment by the Red Wings to pull some cap gymnastics through salary retention since they’ve only got $3 million in cap space left right now. There are some key considerations to amend before picking up Guentzel.
I would personally think the likes of Jonatan Berggren and a first-round draft pick would be the start of negotiations for Guentzel. However, I am not sure if that’s beneficial to the long-term success of the Red Wings.
Really, any trade deadline talks have to start with where Yzerman and the front office believe they are at in terms of their long term goals. They don’t just want to make the playoffs once this season, even though a complement of depth signings and trade acquisitions have coalesced into a competitive roster. But this isn’t the roster Detroit will want to compete with in a few short seasons. How Yzerman ranks that future against a playoff push in the present will guide his trade decisions, especially for someone who will net high capital like Guentzel.
Such a decision is a privilege for a Red Wings team that hasn’t had to think much about its position at the trade deadline for a while, even if it brings additional risks for the reward. But if Detroit chooses to swing for the fences, trading for Guentzel could be a solid hit.
Also from THN Detroit
‘This is What You Play For’: Veteran Presence Leading Red Wings Closer to Playoffs
Red Wings Special Teams Fallible but Firm in Overtime Win against Seattle
Around the League: Kekäläinen Era in Columbus Defined by Lack of Ambition
Red Wings' Persistence Pays off for 4-3 OT Win in Seattle
For Seattle and Detroit, Daniel Sprong’s Ability and Efficiency Bring Intriguing Depth
Led by Patrick Kane, Red Wings' Power Play Cashes in Against Calgary
It's Official: Red Wings to Play in '25 Stadium Series in Columbus
Through triumphs and now struggles, Detroit's goaltending success hinges on Alex Lyon