What Does a Successful '23-24 Look Like for Joe Veleno?

Now 23 with two-plus seasons of NHL experience under his belt, Joe Veleno is well on his way from prospect to NHL vet, but what would a successful 2023-24 season look like for Veleno?

Last Tuesday, the Detroit Red Wings announced that they had re-signed center Joe Veleno to a one year, $825,000 AAV contract.  

That Veleno did not sign this new deal until late August is in itself revelatory, and the contract he agreed to reflects two parties who wanted to remain in business but for whom a long-term commitment did not make sense.

It never appeared in any doubt that Veleno would return to Detroit for the upcoming season, but there was also never a scenario where the contract through which he did so lasted more than a season a two.

Veleno debuted in the NHL in the spring of 2021, playing five games at the NHL level.  Now up to 152 NHL games played, he can claim 18 goals and 18 assists on an average of 13:03 a night of ice time.

2022-23 was the first season of Veleno's professional career without a cameo in the minors.  Instead, he played 81 games with the Wings, chipping in nine goals and 11 assists.  Per MoneyPuck.com, Detroit owned a 45.4% share of the expected goals with Veleno on the ice and a 47.6% share without him at five-on-five.

Unfortunately, Veleno's most recent impression is (by a great distance) the least flattering of his professional career.  At IIHF Worlds in May, Veleno stomped on Swiss forward Nino Niederreiter, earning a five game suspension that ended his Worlds campaign.

As we look forward to what's next for Veleno, it's worth first taking a moment to rewind to his days as a true prospect.  

In June 2015, Veleno became the first ever Quebecois player to receive "exceptional player status," allowing him to suit up in the CHL (specifically, the QMJHL) at just 15 years old.  Players like John Tavares and Connor McDavid had previously earned that distinction to play in the OHL as fifteen-year-olds.  Veleno then became the first overall pick in the 2015 QMJHL Draft to the Saint John Sea Dogs.

After two and half seasons in Saint John, Veleno was traded midway through his draft year to the Drummondville Voltigeurs.  By season's end, Veleno had put up 79 points in 64 games across the two stops, a commendable total but not exactly the windfall scouts might have imagined for Veleno when he earned exceptional status.

At the 2018 NHL Draft, Veleno was expected to go somewhere in the teens but fell to Detroit at pick number 30 (which the Wings had acquired in the deadline deal that sent Tomas Tatar to Vegas).  The explanation for his slide at the time was vague: Unspecified character concerns and a lack of consistency.  To Red Wings fans, Veleno immediately represented a potential diamond in the rough, a player whose talent seemed to obviously outpace their draft position.

In his draft-plus-one season, Veleno managed 104 points in 59 games for the Voltigeurs, before he was loaned to the Malmo Redhawks of the Swedish Hockey League for the '20-21 season, at the conclusion of which he would try his hand at North American pro hockey for the first time.

In two plus seasons at that level, it's become clear that Veleno isn't going to realize the offensive potential he might have shown as a 15-year-old, but that doesn't mean he hasn't provided value to Detroit's lineup.

If Veleno had accrued his career stats in a single season, he still wouldn't be turning heads with his offense, but he has begun the process of carving out a role for himself in Detroit's bottom six.

Earlier this summer, Steve Yzerman praised Veleno for adding different layers to his game to the ones he showed in junior.  "I think [Veleno] in junior was considered a power play net-front guy," Yzerman said."He's learning how to check. He's learning how to win face-offs. He's killing penalties. That is earning him ice-time, and the offensive part [of his game] is growing."  In that sentiment, Yzerman summated the challenge for Veleno moving forward.  

Detroit's top six continues to grow more crowded with off-season additions like J.T. Compher and Alex DeBrincat, while youngsters like Jonatan Berggren or Marco Kasper continue to push closer to claiming their own places in the Wings' top six.  

As such, it's even less likely than ever that Veleno will blossom into a top-of-the-lineup scorer, which changes the nature of his mandate.  Instead, Veleno needs to show that he is a player whose ability as a checker and penalty killer makes him valuable in the bottom six, while still flashing some of the skill that once made him an exceptional prospect.

At 23, Veleno is in something of a liminal space: no longer a prospect but still a player you would hope will continue to add new layers to his game.  One year at under a million dollars is the epitome of the "prove-it" contract, so what exactly does Veleno need to prove?

Veleno needs to show that on a team pushing toward the post-season (if not quite making it there) that he makes sense in a bottom six role.  It's where he's played for the bulk of his pro career, but the stakes (for him and for his team) are different now.

This season's Red Wings will be the deepest group Veleno has been a part of, so even after avoiding a stint in the minors a year ago, it will be more difficult than ever to crack the lineup.  The '23-24 Wings also carry loftier ambitions than any of the three Red Wing teams Veleno has played for to date.

You won't be able to take a fourth line role by default on this team; you will have to earn it, because Detroit at last has a surplus of qualified NHL players to sculpt into an NHL lineup. Veleno can't just be a guy in the bottom six; he needs to convince that he fits in that role with a team pushing toward Cup contention.

Given Veleno's contract situation, that challenge will be as acute for him as it will for any other member of the team.  Prove that you are the best option for the fourth center role, and you will secure your long-term future; fail to take that next step and your days in the Detroit organization are likely numbered.

Because Veleno will still be a restricted free agent when his current deal expires, the Red Wings have the luxury of allowing this to play out over the course of the season before arriving at a long-term decision on the forward.

For Veleno, 2023-24 must carry with it a decided sense of urgency: first to expunge the unpleasant memory of Worlds and then to solidify his long-term future in Detroit.