What Does Auston Matthews' Extension Mean for Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider?

Auston Matthews just reset the market for superstar contracts in the NHL. Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider won't collect checks that big, but there are still lessons to be gleaned from Matthews' new deal.

As the calendar flips over into September and summer draws to an end, the Detroit Red Wings young stars Mortiz Seider and Lucas Raymond each appear poised to enter the 2023-24 NHL season with just one year of term remaining on their entry level contracts.

Both Seider and Raymond became eligible for extensions on July 1st, but, at least as of yet, neither has signed a new deal, leaving both on the precipice of restricted free agency next summer.

For Red Wings fans, there's no cause for serious alarm.  Restricted free agency leaves Detroit with the power to match any offer sheet that either player might sign with a different organization, and, more pertinently, NHL teams don't seem to be in the practice of signing another squads' RFAs to offer sheets in the first place.

In other words, the key questions surrounding Raymond and Seider's next deals have little to do with where they will play (Detroit has near absolute authority to retain their services) and instead center around how those new deals will fit into the structure and composition of what Steve Yzerman no doubt hopes will be a championship contending team for years to come.

When it comes to Seider, a long-term mega extension looks very much in the cards.  Mo Seider is a big, physical, smooth-skating right shot defenseman just now entering his prime; that's a profile that invites a contract bound to look like a bargain at almost any price.

For Raymond, that conversation is a bit trickier after his sophomore regression following an outstanding rookie season.  That's not to say Raymond won't be central to the Red Wings' long term plans but rather that the variance in his performance at the NHL level makes it difficult to conceive of what a sensible long-term deal would be.  Perhaps a bridge makes more sense.  Perhaps there is a real benefit to allowing him to play out a third NHL season before committing.

From Seider and Raymond's perspective, there's also the long-term health of the NHL's salary cap to consider.  Supposedly, the COVID-induced ceiling on salary cap growth that has plagued player wages and the free agent market since 2020 will dissipate next summer.  As such, teams will have more available money to work with, and, in theory, player salaries should experience a nice bump.  In that case, both Seider and Raymond would be well-served to wait until next summer to sign if their goal is to maximize their earnings.

We don't know how Yzerman is approaching these negotiations—not the order in which he'd like to take care of Seider and Raymond, not whether he believes signing extensions this summer as opposed to next, not his own internal perception of the two players' value.

However, late last week, Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews signed a four-year, $53 million contract extension.  His $13.25 million cap hit became the highest AAV in the NHL.

Matthews—a two-time Rocket Richard winner and the '22-23 Hart Trophy recipient as league MVP—is not a direct peer for either Raymond or Seider when it comes to the young Red Wings' next contracts.  However, his deal still does gives us a sense of the present market for star players.

To begin with the basic, there is the matter of Matthews' lofty cap hit.  Some Leaf supporters were quick to call the deal a discount; Leaf antagonists were more inclined to call it a price gouging.

The reality is that Matthews is underpaid, even if anyone reading this article would gladly swap their salary for his without a moment's consideration.  The NHL is governed by a salary cap and, within that structure, there is also a cap on how much of the cap an individual player can take home (20%).

By definition, that means the league's best players are all underpaid; the upper wage limit is fixed and therefore players who make the most aren't making as much as they could in a truly free market.  Of course, restricted free agency (which grants a single team the option to control a player through the early phases of their career) compounds this dynamic; players opportunity to become true (i.e. unrestricted) free agents is rare.

Whatever you may think of Matthews and the Leafs' post-season ineptitude, Matthews is a superstar.  If the league were re-drafted tomorrow, he would be one of the top five picks.  Given that status, he is underpaid, almost by default.  Superstars cannot truly explore the upper limits of their value in a hard cap environment that restricts player movement.

Matthews has managed more than all right for himself in this environment because of his willingness to think differently than many of his peers.  For most NHL superstars, the end of the ELC means its time for a long-term deal to stay with the team that drafted you.  Think the eight-year, $100 million Connor McDavid signed in the summer of 2017 after his ELC expired.

Matthews, on the other hand, signed only a five-year, $58.195 contract when his ELC expired.  That second contract is set to run through next summer, at which point his latest extension will kick in.  By getting himself back to free agency three years sooner than McDavid will, Matthews maximized his earnings.  

There's risk there of course; Matthews had to maintain his elite play for Toronto to continue to want to re-invest.  There's also the risk of injury, although I would contend that risk is at least slightly overstated.  In the modern NHL, we don't see many players whose careers end well before their time because of a single injury.

Even with that risk, by trimming the distance to his next potential chance to hit the free agent market, Matthews maximizes his own value.  He followed that same lesson with his latest contract.

Surely, GM Brad Treliving and the Maple Leafs would have loved to see their talisman agree to terms on a shiny new eight-year deal, assuring the star would spend his prime (or at least the bulk of it) in Toronto.  However, recognizing his worth, Matthews granted Toronto just four more seasons (for now), and when his deal runs out in summer of 2028, he will be 30—still young enough to collect another robust contract.

So, how does all this affect Raymond and Seider?

The short answer is it's hard to say.  ELCs are mostly boilerplate, dictated by a player's draft positioning and the Collective Bargaining Agreement; they don't offer much insight into an individual player's approach to contract negotiations.  With that in mind, it's difficult to say what Raymond and Seider will prioritize in their second contracts.  

Neither Raymond nor Seider will be in a position to command a $13 million+ salary, but, if they want to max out their career earnings, they would both be well served to follow some portion of Mattthews' lead and getting themselves back to free agency.

For Yzerman and the Red Wings, the challenge will be securing a healthy portion of each players prime at a number that entices them to remain in Detroit, without over-committing.

As I said from the outset, there is no serious risk of either Raymond or Seider playing elsewhere in 2024-25 (unless that is an option the Red Wings select themselves).  Instead, Seider and Raymond's next deals will be all about the money that remains to flesh out the roster beyond them.