Jonatan Berggren made a great first impression as a rookie in 2022-23, but what does the 2023-24 hold for the gifted playmaking winger?

As a rookie in 2022-23, Jonatan Berggren announced his arrival to the Detroit Red Wing faithful in style.  He joined the big club in November on an emergency loan, and he wouldn't look back—playing his final game in Grand Rapids for the year on November 9th and making his NHL debut the following evening against the Rangers.

Since being selected 33rd overall in the 2018 Draft, Berggren has been touted as an elite playmaker from the wing, and you could see flashes of that skill from the moment he arrived in Detroit.  

By season's end, Berggren had 28 points in 67 games from a depth role. It wasn't spectacular, it didn't put him within any serious shout of the Calder race, but the style in which he did it was impressive nonetheless.

[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhtUtfuIsvI[/embed]

What stood out most about Berggren in his rookie season was the maturity of his offensive game.  

For many young and gifted players arriving in the National Hockey League, offense comes (almost exclusively) off the rush and on the power play.  Berggren was able to take advantage of those tried and true sources of scoring as a rookie, but they weren't his only creative outlet.  From the moment he joined the Red Wings, Berggren showed the poise, intelligence, and patience to create offense off the cycle and within the offensive zone.

At a basic level, the challenge for touted prospects in adjusting from lower levels of the game (where their speed and skill, especially in transition, is overwhelming) to the more controlled style of NHL hockey lies in developing sustainable means of offensive creativity beyond skillful rush or power play chances.  It's not that NHL players are slower than those at lower levels but that their skill allows them to slow the game down by their own volition.  That means to find space and to score with the league's best you need more to your tool belt.

Of everything Berggren did as a rookie—scoring goals, making plays, earning the nickname 'Jonny Burgers'—it was his immediate ability to create offense via in-zone play that portends his brightest possible NHL future.

To get a better sense of what Berggren can bring in the 2023-24 season, with a year of experience under his belt, let's dive into some numbers and video.

Berggren by the Numbers

By the boxcar stats, Berggren finished his rookie campaign with 15 goals and 13 assists (nine primary and four secondary, per Natural Stat Trick).  He played 13:28 a night across his 67 appearances, and he shot 15.3%.

According to MoneyPuck.com, Berggren ranked 8th amongst Red Wing skaters with an on-ice xG% of 46.7 at five-on-five.  That's far from an earth-shattering number, but for a rookie on a struggling team, it's impressive all the same.

In terms of line-mates, Natural Stat Trick lists Joe Veleno (430:25), Austin Czarnik (168:46), Andrew Copp (147:51), and David Perron (117:22) as the forwards with whom Berggren spent the most time at five-on-five.

There were cameos in the top six (including just under an hour at five-on-five with Dylan Larkin over the course of the season), but, by and large, Berggren operated on Detroit's third and fourth lines, with Veleno being his most frequent line-mate by some distance.

The following isolated impact chart from Micah Blake McCurdy of HockeyViz.com shows that Berggren didn't drive an enormous amount of offense, but he didn't give much up the other way either.  Meanwhile, McCurdy found Berggren to be an excellent shooter with a quality penalty differential.

Berggren on Tape

Jonatan Berggren scored his first NHL point in his first NHL game, giving a primary assist to Veleno in his debut against the Rangers on November 10th.

[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQ9QFdi6NoI[/embed]

The goal came in transition, but it still showed some of the poise and maturity of Berggren's attacking game.  In simultaneously receiving a lead pass from Veleno and gaining the offensive zone, Berggren shows his ability to blend, performing different functions with his hands and feet in characteristic fashion for the NHL's top playmakers.

He doesn't send an immediate return feed for Veleno, instead pausing for a beat to allow the play to develop and Veleno to get to premium ice in the slot.  Once Veleno makes that move, Berggren has the puck to his tape in a shooting position in an instant, and Veleno finishes the job.  That pause isn't dazzling, but it's the type of play NHL scorers know how to make: waiting for the right moment to strike instead of forcing a hope play to the slot.

Three months later, Berggren showed similar patience, vision, and skill on a power play sequence against the Maple Leafs:

[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxD5CEWQmkc[/embed]

Berggren gains the zone along the left wing and eventually works the puck to the opposite flank for Dominik Kubalik via a rim release.  Kubalik returns the favor right away, and Berggren uses a subtle but swift spin to create separation between himself and the Maple Leaf penalty killer (Alex Kerfoot).

He gets a bit fortunate that his ensuing pass makes it through traffic to Kubalik, but his decision to chuck the puck back to Kubalik's wing reflects his ability to interpret space: The Toronto PK is collapsing on him, so there must be room on Kubalik's side of the ice.  

Kubalik sends a pass back again to Berggren, who then does a great job of selling to goaltender Ilya Samsonov that he intends to shoot with his body position and the way he situates the puck.  Instead of shooting though, Berggren slips a pass inside to a wide-open Robby Fabbri, who has ample net to shoot into.

The entire sequence provides a nice encapsulation of some of Berggren's gifts, not least of which is his ability to use the entire ice as a creator.  Berggren isn't restricted to short passes and getting rid of the puck in a hurry; he's comfortable hanging on to it in the face of pressure, and he can snap a rink-wide pass if that's the option he needs to call upon.

For another example of Berggren's ability to manipulate space in the offensive zone, consider this goal from November against the Buffalo Sabres:

[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YuShnIk6M_4[/embed]

At first blush, it's nothing out of the ordinary, a nice release but not much more.  However, it's the subtlety of Berggren's movement in the build up to the goal that shows his trademark offensive intelligence.

As Veleno wins a board battle and rims the puck for Filip Hronek at the far point, Berggren loops back to the top of the offensive zone.  He goes high enough in the zone to wind up above the puck, building momentum as he arcs back toward the net.

He then identifies that there is space to be exploited behind Sabre winger J.J. Peterka, who comes out to pressure Hronek.  It's not an ocean of room by any means, but it's enough to get off a quick shot from a decent area with plenty of traffic in front.

Before he takes the pass from Hronek (who has just faked a pass to a non-existent player below the goal line), Berggren has a plan: shooting low and far-side.  After two touches to take possession, Berggren executes his plan and scores.

When you put it all together, you have the makings of a dynamic offensive player at the NHL level.  Berggren didn't make his way onto the scoresheet by capitalizing on every transition look he got; instead, he played with a veteran maturity that suggests big things might be coming for the Swedish winger, who turned 23 just this week.

What's in Store in '23-24?

Given that offensive toolkit, Berggren's long-term home in Detroit should wind up being in a featured role, but at just 23, the path to him achieving that might take a little while.  

After a busy off-season, it will be more difficult just to crack the Red Wings line-up for Berggren than it was a year ago, much less move up it.  To be absolutely clear, this doesn't mean I expect Berggren to start the season in the press box as a healthy scratch or with the Griffins in the AHL—just that his competition has only increased relative to his rookie year.

The off-season's marquee acquisition—Alex DeBrincat—will almost certainly slot into a top line role.  As I discussed last weekend, that leaves the Red Wings with a decision to make regarding who will play beside DeBrincat and Larkin: a third scoring threat like Lucas Raymond or a forechecker/battle winner like Michael Rasmussen.

If the Wings don't opt for an all-offense approach there, that would drop Raymond (or, if Derek Lalonde and company decide for a change of pace, DeBrincat) to the second line.  At that point, the same question—should the line be filled out with another scoring winger or a more rugged and workmanlike one—pushes down to the second line as well.

I point this out to note that Berggren probably isn't looking at a top six role in the immediate future, and he will have to continue to ply his craft in a depth role to start his second season in the NHL.

Still, Detroit's improved depth should only make life easier for an offensively minded player in the Red Wings' bottom six this season as compared to last.  With no disrespect intended to Czarnik, the Red Wings' new bottom six options (namely Daniel Sprong, Klim Kostin, and Christian Fischer) should provide a significant upgrade.  As such, Berggren could reasonably be in line for a nice boost to his point total, even without much of an uptick in role and ice time.  

Regardless, if he continues to play with the savvy and skill he showed as a 22-year-old rookie, Berggren won't be contained in the bottom six for long.